Charmin Posted July 15, 2006 Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 There's nothing like starting over mid month. It appears stocks are under pressure. I believe I kick started July off with AEM and a fib at 1/2 back. Looks like we have about 8 days of cause for another move as it grinds 2/3 back inside the trading range from high to low. There is a fight going on, but supply hasn't gained the upper hand to break price down. I can see what looks like a probe on Wednesday and a low close, but today at least didn't break down. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1152922415.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hadjin Posted July 15, 2006 Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 added 200 more ounces of Physical today after the close. What are ya gonna do ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 15, 2006 Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 Back from vacation, having spent 2 weeks in unusually sunny Scotland. Apart from the meltup on the day I flew out-- June 30th-- we seem to be consolidating in a pair of 4th waves. If so, we should see a 5th wave up that challenges gap resistance at 153.28. There is no short term pattern, though we may be forming a short term megaphone top. A case can be made that 5 waves are in and the strong 3rd wave accounts for the abbreviated 5th. That alternate count moves red 3 to where blue iii is, and replaces red 3 with red 5. By far, the most important feature on all the charts is the uptrend line running from June 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 15, 2006 Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 Uptrend line: The importance of the uptrend line cannot be underestimated. It's apparent on the indices and most individual miner charts. EGO, FCX, GG, and MDG have already violated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted July 15, 2006 Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 war markets are trecherous. to me, the charts, the last few days, look like consolidation. the miners have been acting like stocks. not gold shares. i am long but unless something seems like an opportunity, i am not adding. i expect the metal to go higher on war fears. be careful. i am still waiting to add to my metal holdings,although i think hadjins buy will in retrospect be seen as very profitable. volatility is the name of the game, it appears from here on out. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 15, 2006 Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 war markets are trecherous.to me, the charts, the last few days, look like consolidation. the miners have been acting like stocks. not gold shares. i am long but unless something seems like an opportunity, i am not adding. i expect the metal to go higher on war fears. be careful. i am still waiting to add to my metal holdings,although i think hadjins buy will in retrospect be seen as very profitable. volatility is the name of the game, it appears from here on out. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Silver must start to confirm the upmove period or we will eventually head back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dharma Posted July 16, 2006 Report Share Posted July 16, 2006 tfh, you may be right. however, i have stated here over and over again, i think gold is the lead dog and will make new forever highs, i doubt that silver will do that. silver was $10 cheaper when gold was @720. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted July 16, 2006 Report Share Posted July 16, 2006 Unfortunately, gold shares are now completely disconnected from the gold price. Mining companies are being treated as broad market equities which are tracking the US indexes without much regard to the gold price itself. My intuition from the slaughter back in May was that using gold shares to leverage the inherent gold price was not working anymore. GLD/SLV has likely extracted a significant amount of capital from the gold share majors as a result (ie, NEM). YTD Performance: Gold +26.5% GLD +25.81% HUI +14.6% XAU +7.13% http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?...6;HUI,$XAU To me, utilizing these ETFs or gold futures is a much better way to leverage the gold price. If the broader indices are truly resuming their US secular bear market decline, then the gold shares are likely to go along for the ride down while the gold price continues to trade as a global currency. Same instance follows the Energy shares as well. CL is trading close to 80 while the OSX is clearly lagging, this indicator says to utilize the underlying commodities itself. YTD Performance: WTIC Oil +25.35% OIH +8.75% XLE +11.55% http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$WTIC,OIH,XLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 16, 2006 Report Share Posted July 16, 2006 tfh, you may be right. however, i have stated here over and over again, i think gold is the lead dog and will make new forever highs, i doubt that silver will do that. silver was $10 cheaper when gold was @720. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I know you have stated that in the past and while I doubted you then I don't doubt you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted July 16, 2006 Report Share Posted July 16, 2006 If world events continue at this rate, you can forget about seeing spot silver @ $11 and spot gold @ $600 for the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted July 16, 2006 Report Share Posted July 16, 2006 3 peaks and a domed house on PMU? I'm very long on this one. Other specs are MMK, GLE, CDY, sold my EGI at 1.28. Tim Wood on this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 Index Trading: I was unaware of GDX, a market vector that follows the $GDM. http://www.amex.com/?href=/etf/prodInf/EtP...duct_Symbol=GDX It is also closely co-related to the more widely followed HUI. I've traded NEM and XAU options as market index proxies in the past. NEM's co-relationship as an outperformer up and down has waned since its addition to the S&P 500. XAU options are too thinly traded and require a large premium for the market maker. This looks like a good trading vehicle, which, coupled with GLD should provide excellent vehicles to hedge, dong or short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 For the star gazers, I want opinions on this matter. Moon - Sun Tidal Effects Any events falling with selectively within 9/56 year patterns will always correlate with the ecliptical position of the north (ascending) node (see Diagram 2.2, McMinn, 2004). The lunar nodes are imaginary points in the heavens where the plane of the Earth?s orbit around the Sun (the ecliptic) is cut the plane of the Moon?s orbit around the Earth. The north node occurs where the Moon passes from below the ecliptic to above. All 9 Californian earthquakes in Table 1 occurred when the lunar north node was within two narrow segments approximately opposite in the ecliptic circle: * 310 ? 340 E o - a 30o segment * 130 ? 180 E o - a 50 o segment. There were no exceptions, a factor very unlikely to arise by chance. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_Am_Madness Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 If world events continue at this rate, you can forget about seeing spot silver @ $11 and spot gold @ $600 for the next 10 years. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Noone is concern that with all this war news that gold and silver have been struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 17, 2006 Report Share Posted July 17, 2006 war markets are trecherous.to me, the charts, the last few days, look like consolidation. the miners have been acting like stocks. not gold shares. i am long but unless something seems like an opportunity, i am not adding. i expect the metal to go higher on war fears. be careful. i am still waiting to add to my metal holdings,although i think hadjins buy will in retrospect be seen as very profitable. volatility is the name of the game, it appears from here on out. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yeah, what the heck happened? Did Hezzbollah and Israel make nice? When I went to bed 7 hours ago the POG was up $7 War news is up and down. I don't understand the gains in the buck today. WTF is up with that? Long term this is still the place to be, I still think the Fed is done for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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