How Now, Brown Dow?

[GregFokker]

Doc tells me that he's been trapped offline by connection woes here in the Great (green) North. He sends love & kisses and will be back as soon as the gods permit.

[Black Prince]

The latest from Larry Haimsohn

 

My take on the cycles.

 

A possible gap down to a new low on Monday?

 

A one day hard rally, either after the gap down on MOnday or rally Tuesday ?

 

The following I feel better about although the above should be correct.

 

Wednesday and Thursday panic down days with the potential for Thursday the 20th to cause a wild reversal and close way off of the lows. Monday the 24th is a nightmare on the downside and then we rally hard into a high on the 28th from where we trade down again. Important support levels and targets for the lows are the 1153 to 1156 area and 1113 and 1060. I am not sure if the 1168 to 1175 area will support.

[DrStool]

As if we haven't had enough issues to deal with, yesterday at 1:00 PM ET, our cable broadband connection went down. As of 12:00 today, a weak signal was re-established, and I have jury rigged a signal boost in order to reconnect to the network. I will be downloading our data updates and posting the delayed Fed report and a market report later today and tomorrow.

 

Thanks as always for your patience.

 

Special Tanks to Fokker for relaying messages and opening this thread!!!!

[DrStool]

Believe it or not, I still have no idea what the market did yesterday.

[DrStool]

Making things even more relaxing around here yesterday, it was 90 degrees INSIDE the house, and we don't have a/c. We got one window unit for just such emergencies, but were unable to install it due to weird window frame, and special install requirements.

[LeeWhee]

I've been thoroughly cornholed recently by ENER, ESLR, HYGS, BLDP, PEIX.

 

So much so that I've decided to rent out me Arse for tractor-trailer storage.

 

Gotta supplement my speculation with a little rental income, positive $caSSh flow.

 

After all I'm runnin' a bizness here, not a charity. 

 

Luckily I resisted the temptation to dip-dong SUF and SYNM.

 

Butt they look even more attractive now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I've been primarily short the altenergies mainly because I've been watching the ECO (altenergy index) and it looked ready to plunge. It's close to significant support though.

 

Not sure what is happening with altenergy in here. It's clearly not following oil prices higher. So maybe the altenergy stocks are discounting a global slowdown which will ultimately take oil prices much lower. Maybe not.

 

For clues, I'm following $ECO, the altenergy index (PBW is the tracking etf). The simplest explanation for the altenergy selloff is that these stocks got ahead of themselves and the mo-mo needs to be wrung out. The index is still positive on the year, BTW.

 

There are 42 components in ECO, including BLDP, CPST, DESC, ENER, ESLR, HYGS, FCEL, PLUG, PEIX, etc. No component is greater than 3% weight.

 

PBW is a mix of electrical components (27%), energy sources (24%), technology (21%), electronics (11%), chemicals (8%), utilities (6%). So it's not all energy.

 

The ECO ramped 48% from Jan-May06. It moved 90% from Apr05-May06. And it moved 228% from Oct02-May06. It has already retraced more than 50% of the 05-06 move.

 

When you look at ECO, you'll see that the index double-topped in May06 and matched its 2001 high at 256+. Given the mo-mo in these names, I anticipated that the entire Jan06 move would be retraced (at minimum). That would bring the ECO back to 173 or so. Not much lower than last week's low at 180.

 

To me, the line in the sand for the altenergy names will be the 168-173 level on ECO. That was resistance from early 2004 to mid-2005, not to mention the 50% retrace of the entire 02-06 rally, and about 5-8% lower. If that level gives way, I imagine the ECO will fall back to 135ish. That was the post-9/11 low and the 4/05 low.

 

If we do get a global slowdown, it could bring energy prices significantly lower. If energy prices fall, I would imagine the altenergy names would enter a bear market of their own. That's the risk here. But following the ECO chart should keep you on the right side of most of the altenergy names.

 

The group I'm also following are the water stocks. A good proxy for this is $ZWI (PHO is the tracking etf).

 

ZWI has 38 components and is a mix of water-specific utilities and companies as well as some largecrappers that have water businesses: AWR, ASH, CCC, CWCO, DHR, EMR, FLS, GE, ITT, MIL, MMM, PNR, MWA, SWWC, WTR, WTS. No component has more than a 4% weight.

 

Unlike the altenergies, the ZWI is still within its solid 7-year uptrend. It is trading slightly below its 50wkMA right now and has risk back towards its 200wkMA. But it strikes me that the water group will be less subject to the ebbs and flows of economic boom/bust periods like energy and altenergy. Water is a constant.

 

I can easily see the water group get hit a bit more in here, like in 2002-2003. After all, they are stocks. But unlike the ECO, which crashed (-70%) in 2001-2002, the ZWI went into a consolidation (-24%) and maintained its uptrend. We could see the same thing here.

 

Count me long-term bullish on water and water-related companies (particularly those with international exposure.) Not as sexy as altenergy, but probably a safer long-term play.

[seamus]

Seamus,

 

How is the baby and your wife?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

As you can see, not a lot of time for the computer right now....everyone is great and we are having a ball.

[Sam Adams]

Dmm, Shorty

 

Re: Alt Energy Plays

 

This looks more like a shakeout to me. It seems like every major bet I've placed I got shaken out of.

 

I remember holding a large quantity of leap calls on earl when it was trading for $22 a barrel.

 

The chimp administration announced that they had brokered major deals with Russia to supply unlimited crude. There was a quick trip down to about $18 just before the afterburners kicked in.

 

I can recount lots of similar stories especially trading metals futures and options. The crooks in Chicago used to use my trades to move the market on slow days and report nothing was filled for 30 minutes.

 

This game is utterly crooked. We all know it yet we are adrenaline junkies I suppose.

[The End]

Seamus,

 

How is the baby and your wife?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

As you can see, not a lot of time for the computer right now....everyone is great and we are having a ball.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I remember when our first was born. We changed him seven times that first day.

 

Both of you, try and manage your sleep.

[cwd]

I've been thoroughly cornholed recently by ENER, ESLR, HYGS, BLDP, PEIX.

 

So much so that I've decided to rent out me Arse for tractor-trailer storage.

 

Gotta supplement my speculation with a little rental income, positive $caSSh flow.

 

After all I'm runnin' a bizness here, not a charity.?

 

Luckily I resisted the temptation to dip-dong SUF and SYNM.

 

Butt they look even more attractive now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I've been primarily short the altenergies mainly because I've been watching the ECO (altenergy index) and it looked ready to plunge. It's close to significant support though.

 

Not sure what is happening with altenergy in here. It's clearly not following oil prices higher. So maybe the altenergy stocks are discounting a global slowdown which will ultimately take oil prices much lower. Maybe not.

 

For clues, I'm following $ECO, the altenergy index (PBW is the tracking etf). The simplest explanation for the altenergy selloff is that these stocks got ahead of themselves and the mo-mo needs to be wrung out. The index is still positive on the year, BTW.

 

There are 42 components in ECO, including BLDP, CPST, DESC, ENER, ESLR, HYGS, FCEL, PLUG, PEIX, etc. No component is greater than 3% weight.

 

PBW is a mix of electrical components (27%), energy sources (24%), technology (21%), electronics (11%), chemicals (8%), utilities (6%). So it's not all energy.

 

The ECO ramped 48% from Jan-May06. It moved 90% from Apr05-May06. And it moved 228% from Oct02-May06. It has already retraced more than 50% of the 05-06 move.

 

When you look at ECO, you'll see that the index double-topped in May06 and matched its 2001 high at 256+. Given the mo-mo in these names, I anticipated that the entire Jan06 move would be retraced (at minimum). That would bring the ECO back to 173 or so. Not much lower than last week's low at 180.

 

To me, the line in the sand for the altenergy names will be the 168-173 level on ECO. That was resistance from early 2004 to mid-2005, not to mention the 50% retrace of the entire 02-06 rally, and about 5-8% lower. If that level gives way, I imagine the ECO will fall back to 135ish. That was the post-9/11 low and the 4/05 low.

 

If we do get a global slowdown, it could bring energy prices significantly lower. If energy prices fall, I would imagine the altenergy names would enter a bear market of their own. That's the risk here. But following the ECO chart should keep you on the right side of most of the altenergy names.

 

The group I'm also following are the water stocks. A good proxy for this is $ZWI (PHO is the tracking etf).

 

ZWI has 38 components and is a mix of water-specific utilities and companies as well as some largecrappers that have water businesses: AWR, ASH, CCC, CWCO, DHR, EMR, FLS, GE, ITT, MIL, MMM, PNR, MWA, SWWC, WTR, WTS. No component has more than a 4% weight.

 

Unlike the altenergies, the ZWI is still within its solid 7-year uptrend. It is trading slightly below its 50wkMA right now and has risk back towards its 200wkMA. But it strikes me that the water group will be less subject to the ebbs and flows of economic boom/bust periods like energy and altenergy. Water is a constant.

 

I can easily see the water group get hit a bit more in here, like in 2002-2003. After all, they are stocks. But unlike the ECO, which crashed (-70%) in 2001-2002, the ZWI went into a consolidation (-24%) and maintained its uptrend. We could see the same thing here.

 

Count me long-term bullish on water and water-related companies (particularly those with international exposure.) Not as sexy as altenergy, but probably a safer long-term play.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

DMM, thanks for the update.

[DrStool]

When posting material written by someone else-

 

1. Include, full unmistakeable attribution for third party material so that we know where it came from.

 

2. Repost only a snippet and a LINK to the source. Unless it is a paid, private service, there is almost always a link. Google the title or key phrase from the article if you don't have the original. If you absolutely cannot find a link, then post a portion of the article with complete reference as to where it came from.

 

There are two reasons for this. First, we do not have the right to repost other people's material in full unless it is expressly granted by the owner. Second, we may want to check the source for additional information.

[cwd]

This a chart from Mr. Sinclair's website

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/invento...7-14-200601.jpg

[cwd]

The COT analysis from the Sinclair site.

[mdporter]

Looking at the Ten year, wondering what it will do next:

[ItCan'tBe]

While Mr. Sinclair is busy counting contracts, and deriving Bullish implications as a result, I'm not nearly as sanguine. I'm viewing a great deal of the advance in the price of gold these past couple of weeks as geo-political. The significant under performance of the miners is a divergence that has never boded well in the past........but I'm sure it's gonna be different this time around