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Monthly Digger - November 2005

Charmin

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Charmin Dean of Stock Proctology

Charmin

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Nocturnal goldbugs are more active at night than during the day. These traders sleep during the day, often burrowed in their bed with their shades drawn. Many goldbugs, like desert animals, are nocturnal in order to escape the extreme heat of watching price action blow away their ego.

 

Is there something wrong with this picture

 

AAUK

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Old Habits Doctor of Stock Proctology

Old Habits

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A few small points if I may...

 

 

1) Can the news get any worse on these three?

 

2) Technically speaking, each time these three stocks take off into the wind. They've alway's come back to the break out area. A traders paradise, although perhaps a buy/holder's nightmare.

 

3) I've spoken with all three companies, plus I've spoken to all of the sources I can muster, and to be frank with you I came away with a different picture of the situation than I hear the "advisors" or the news media out there touting. To sum it up short...and succinctly. I believe the Venezuelan government wants to actually put their mines into production and is worried about the companies who have concessions and are allowing their mines to sit dormant. This is the reason for the review. Also, I will add, their mining sector is somewhat in disarray, they look like growing pains from this participant.

 

Sure there is risk, some might deem paramount risk. This is what makes a market.

 

Venezuelan Lawmakers Back Mining Permit

 

4) This administration in Washington is far from being pro Venezuelan, notice the use of "confiscation of mines" used in the articles? Continue to believe it, I don't. I interpret these articles as demonstrating an ongoing anti-Venezualan campaign, and disregard them in to-tal.

 

Again, a market has to have a buyer and a seller. At these prices, I'm a buyer, my trader's nose smell's opportunity, I could be wrong, but you take your chances, and live with the consequences.

 

I'm not recommending anyone follow my path, although, I'm pleased to have you sit here and watch me fall flat on my face. Feel free to gloat when I'm wrong.

 

 

The market trampled my ego a decade ago.

 

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

P.S. Meant to forward this a week or two ago...

 

Denver Gold Forum - 2005

 

The Denver gold show was about the same time as the "announcement", take a listen to HL's & KRY's presentation.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

TCG -

Firstly and foremostly, I would not throw HL or any of those names back in your face if they went south.

 

My glass house doesn't appreciate me throwing stones. :rolleyes:

 

For me, I've just had too many stocks bite me in the tail end so I'm just less inclined to take the risk. If things go as some of us hope, there will be enuff gains to go around. I do own more GBN than I care to mention - so I guess i'm in HL anyway.

 

I'm a little worried about a couple of things.

 

#1 Ralph Acampora and the CIO of U.S. Global Investors were on different segments on CNBS today. Honestly, gold got a good 20 min. of exposure.

 

#2 NEM acted terribly today. Why? Does the market think that NEM is going to try and outbid ABX for PDG? The action in RGLD has also been piss poor.

 

Some of these stocks like GBN and CBJ etc., better get it in gear this month or we'll be looking at tax loss selling and there's going to be some ugly action.

 

Feedfool has a turn date of 11/4, let's hope that turn is up.

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The CoinGuy Master of Stock Proctology

The CoinGuy

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OH,

 

Let's take a look at some of these concerns of yours. Although, I will add being "a little worried" about something is fine, getting stressed over these things, "just isn't worth it".

 

--Ralph Acampora...I was under the impression we exorcised the credibility of this demon during the bear run in 2000-2002 on this very site, but it looks like he's back in the spotlight, and fresh from a culling at Pru? Well, to have him make any comments on gold in a positive light, is enough vindication for me to be skipping along and smiling for a couple of months. When ol' Abby Jo is recommending miner's, I'll break out the Krystal and 24 oz Elk steaks. Exposure like this with a major takeover happening in the sector, is par for the course from my perspective. Plus it was a slow news day...

 

Had to DIG DEEP into my archives for this one

 

--NEM acted terribly today? It's in a corrective phase, anything can be expected. I wasn't surprised in the least to see channel support give it up, volume has been nothing but the norm during this whole correction, a little on the heavy side today, but within the norm. I am watching the 41.07 level, but I don't rule out a "quick" test of the break-out of the downtrending channel(in red), simultaneously filling the gap left from the orginal break-out day on Sept 1st. As I've mentioned, I don't own this stock, unless, I'm hedging on the short side. Will it make a play for PDG, let's hope not...speculation in the market place is one thing, putting out a bid is another. I'm in the camp that all of these majors high-graded their deposits during the late 90's to survive, so "ounces of production", will be hard to replace. If they're desperate, there might be a fight. A speculation at best, but there are other producers out there that are entirely more befitting for NEM's geography. I'm keeping my eyes peeled on the current moves into West Africa...

 

NEM - Daily Chart

 

I've always believed PDG and ABX would combine because of the hedges on the books of both companies. Chris Powell takes a stab at this here, I'd imagine if he isn't spot on, his stab in the dark is closer than most. PDG and ABX...a good combination. The guys at Goldcorp picking up the residue as Johnny on the spot, another smart move from GG. Positive for Goldcorp, wouldn't touch the other two.

 

Chris Powell's Diatribe

 

--RGLD, What can a guy say here. $11-30 since July of '04...a correction is due, and in true RGLD fashion, it's a humdinger meant to scare you out of those long-term profitable positions you hold, this fish ain't in the biting mood, but will add soon. I'd like to see it hold that 50% fib level it's already tested in the 20.70 neighborhood. This would bode well for the next advance. Although, again, if you're in the neighborhood...why not take a stab at the gap fill from the August 2nd BO day. I'd prefer not to see this happen.

 

--The junior golds, I'd imagine tax loss selling shares hit hard and heavy in these companies last year. I've personally loaded my accounts with the smaller producers, exploration plays and silvers after riding the majors up. I own NO majors in my trading account(long). In most cases, these juniors are selling at ridiculous discounts to NAV. IF my numbers are correct, the market is currently valuing proven ounces in the ground from GBN at $10. I might add you can expect some drilling news out of GBN soon here. Hecla is pounding the dirt in the Carlin Trend, hot and heavy, and you'll want to remember, this is just down the hill from the Ken Snyder mine. A world class deposit. CBJ, my thoughts on this, I won't mention publicly, they're that negative. I'm playing it for a trade, technically it's set-up. Takeover target, but will go without a premium, or much of a premium if this is the case. Ex-hedger blue light special. There are plenty of more names out there that offer long term investing potential, this company is only on my list because of the technical pattern it is exhibiting, if it fails the pattern, it will be dropped, hot and fast.

 

I feel more comfortable in the juniors, having sold my majors at a premium. Will they pop...I'd be talking my book, by saying yes. Looking for a sign of strength in all of these issues in short order...as mentioned.

 

When we pull out of this consolidation, I'll throw out some potential numbers in the $HUI and the $XAU, considerably higher from where we sit today.

 

Best Regards,

 

The CoinGuy

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Old Habits Doctor of Stock Proctology

Old Habits

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I fergot the criminals were raising rates today.

 

I believe ya TCG - but I'm still gonna stress cuz it's in my nature to do so and I'm buried up to my neck in this stuff. :o

 

Then there this, with the exception of the physical this market has been nothing but empty promises - unless you happened to buy in 2000'

 

As far as Ralphy - yeah exposure is good I guess. The CIO of U.S Global knew what he was talking about.

Amazing how stupid Dylan Ratigan is - the questions he asked the CIO showed how little he knows about gold.

 

Anyway - I'm stickin' with the program - jus let me if ur sellin' :unsure:

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Well, I'm encouraged a bit, because the rate hikes were known by everyone, so this big drop, if attributable to that, is all smoke and mirrors..

 

Looking to add more WTZ...

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