Goldmember Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Interesting disconnect happening. After umpteen years of decline ................ It appears to me that the Japanese money has found a better home than wasting away in the U.S. See a divergance of late? I would have to surmise that as the S&P500 sink to new depths [especially the Nascrap portions] and the U.S. dollar continues cliffdiving for a hobby, the Nickme is looking damn attractive. Somebody with a few sheckels seems to think so. Hmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Looks like it will level off But so and Hmmmmmmmm Is all this planned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoshaviah Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Now this chart got me to thinkin' about Buck at 100 and SPX at 866. I also think a divergence is pending between the XAU and the SPX on account of the MACD breakdown on this chart The next chart shows 866 as the neckline. Maybe a nice place for a whoopsaw? So if the SPX is going to 866 and my ratio chart is projecting down to 10 between SPX and XAU then XAU should top around 86. Nice place for a whoopsaw there too. There is also a gap that has to be filled between 85 and 86 on the XAU Someone who is an expert with the fib numbers might want to confirm this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 I am looking to the TOPIX rather than the Nikkei. Smaller cap Japanese companies with an internal market focus rather than export focused. This would be one place where I might put my money in May/June when I rotate out of the PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Without the US no one is going to the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 I have to admit Nikkei should hit the bottom some time this year. How many years it will take to get in the bull mode is the question? It may breaks bullish wedge to the down side. Does any one know where I can get a long-term chart with volume? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Here is dax With H&S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 19, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Yosh -wowza! Kind of sums it up doesn't it? Feed too! Funny thing about indicators. Doc brought up "paralysis by analysis" as a nasty way to get mixed up. Whether the Nickme or the SPX really break out into big moves either way who really cares? I like this indicator. To take away all the noise and emotion out of swing trading it would appear prudent and comforting to just buy when the shorter duration indicator breaks above its moving average and sell and short when it breaks below its moving average. Talk about compounding gains. Use stops as insurance. Comissions are CHEAP! All the noise and hoopla and emotion completely REMOVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 The NOKKIE still has about 2000-3000 downside points to go IMO. Thier BULL started in 1983 at roughly 6500, today it stands at 8600. To play a bounce here and there is one thing, but to consider long term investment in Japan is just as risky as investing in the DOW IMO of course. I still don't see any indication that Japan has wrestled their deflationary death spiral to the ground as of yet and with Europe and US not far behind lends no helping hand to the export situation. The Yen needs to be devalued much further in order to see much upside in the NOKKIE. Untill the 200ma can be topped, their is no BULL motivation to consider long-term investment: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Nikme is going to have a bear market rally to around 9400, according to the e-wavers - source: Longer-term, the thing is headed towards 4K, yeah. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 19, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 It will bear watching to see if the S&P gaps up on Tuesday and the Nickme corrects in an inverse pattern. ASS &PEE rally not expected to be much but who knows, a last gasp run up is possible. At the first sign of the Nascrap and S&P losing steam in the last gasp a serious look at the Nikkie may be in order. If only for a nice run up to Vesselins target area. Imagine a leverage play with Nickme futures contract at a well timed [read the charts] point for a run. At each pause book profit and have funds available or enough margin for a fast reload or wait the 5 days for settlement. Pour over charts, keep it simple, and compound the next run with double the amount of contracts. Have stops in place at all times and keep moving them up. Again, as the charts show overbought book profit and wait for settlement again during the respite or have cash and margin ready for a quicker opportunity if it presents itself. If the charts were interpreted correctly in this manner [which is or should be why most of us are here as this website is a university of wealth, knowledge and experience, thank you all] Short the futures as well with stops at identifiable peaks. Compound the crap out of it. Pull your original amount OUT and keep max leveraging new positions with the house's money, your profits, with excellent TA. Here's a link to a warp drive futures fund that I think Stoolville here would have better TA and better use of stops in order to achieve superlative results. I am not endorsing this fund by any stretch of the imagination but their website offers a very vivid user interactive game that demonstrates how leverage and compounding can SUBSTANTIALLY increase ones balance. And decrease it fast too. But if one is right more times than not the gains are still phenomenal. Play this game. 40 bets and try and beat their results. They will bet EXACTLY as YOU bet. You are not playing against them, they bet in the same direction as you but in unknown amounts until the end of the 40 bets. You and the game both start with the same amount. It's just a game but it does show the power of compounding, one of Doc's favorites and a Hurst ideal. Throw in Stoolville TA and TIGHT STOPS AT ALL TIMES [profit preserver] I was only able to beat the game twice out of a dozen tries. And only when I studied the methodology of how they calculated the amount to place on each bet. Try it. I really enjoyed this little eye opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 It is however worthwhile to play the NOKKIE bounce for the following reasons though: - Last February marked a severe intervention policy by the BOJ to jam the shorts. This resulted in a 2000 point runup within a four week timeframe. - This runup result in a nice advance in RYJPX from 7.5 to 10, a nice play when the DOW was already starting to tank. - The Japanese wrap up their fiscal year around this time so we may very well see a repeat of the "kamakaze ramp job" Per the chart below, I would place some capital inplay if JPX can break and hold 7.5 over the next few weeks. Target would once again be 10, a mindless gain if you ask me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 19, 2003 Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Goldmember, what's the prize if I beat them at their own game? :grin: NT RT Your bet Result Balance Our bet Result Balance 1 - 50 -50 50 40 -40 60 2 + 25 +125 175 24 +120 180 3 + 85 +425 600 72 +360 540 4 + 300 +1500 2100 216 +1080 1620 5 + 1050 +5250 7350 648 +3240 4860 6 - 3675 -3675 3675 1944 -1944 2916 7 - 1837 -1837 1838 1166 -1166 1750 8 + 918 +4590 6428 700 +3500 5250 9 - 3214 -3214 3214 2100 -2100 3150 10 + 1607 +8035 11249 1260 +6300 9450 11 - 5624 -5624 5625 3780 -3780 5670 12 - 2812 -2812 2813 2268 -2268 3402 13 + 1406 +7030 9843 1360 +6800 10202 14 + 4921 +24605 34448 4080 +20400 30602 15 + 17224 +86120 120568 12240 +61200 91802 16 + 60284 +301420 421988 36720 +183600 275402 17 - 210994 -210994 210994 110160 -110160 165242 18 - 105497 -105497 105497 66096 -66096 99146 19 + 52748 +263740 369237 39658 +198290 297436 20 + 184618 +923090 1292327 118974 +594870 892306 21 + 646163 +3230815 4523142 356922 +1784610 2676916 22 - 2261571 -2261571 2261571 1070766 -1070766 1606150 23 + 1130785 +5653925 7915496 642460 +3212300 4818450 24 + 3957748 +19788740 27704236 1927380 +9636900 14455350 25 - 13852118 -13852118 13852118 5782140 -5782140 8673210 26 + 6926059 +34630295 48482413 3469284 +17346420 26019630 27 + 24241206 +121206030 169688443 10407852 +52039260 78058890 28 + 84844221 +424221105 593909548 31223556 +156117780 234176670 29 + 296954774 +1484773870 2078683418 93670668 +468353340 702530010 30 - 1039341709 -1039341709 1039341709 281012004 -281012004 421518006 31 - 519670854 -519670854 519670855 168607202 -168607202 252910804 32 - 259835427 -259835427 259835428 101164321 -101164321 151746483 33 - 129917714 -129917714 129917714 60698593 -60698593 91047890 34 + 64958857 +324794285 454711999 36419156 +182095780 273143670 35 + 227355999 +1136779995 1591491994 109257468 +546287340 819431010 36 + 795745997 +3978729985 5570221979 327772404 +1638862020 2458293030 37 + 2785110989 +13925554945 19495776924 983317212 +4916586060 7374879090 38 - 9747888462 -9747888462 9747888462 2949951636 -2949951636 4424927454 39 + 4873944231 +24369721155 34117609617 1769970981 +8849854905 13274782359 40 - 17058804808 -17058804808 17058804809 5309912943 -5309912943 7964869416 RF 17058804809 7964869416 Of course, in reality I'd have a bit of a psychological problem betting 34 billions on a coin toss - I'm not Alan Greenspan, after all... :grin: Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted January 19, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted January 20, 2003 Report Share Posted January 20, 2003 Japan had a generatonal shift in investing patterns and attitudes. One which is just underway here in the US. You won't see another Bull in Japan for 30-40 years. Japs HATE stocks. The rally last year was entirely due to furriners tossing mad money at hit hoping it would perk up and the gubmint would solve the banking crisis. We are NOWHERE near a long term bottom on the Nikme. The bottom will be between 2000-4000. No higher than 4000. Why you say is DB Sooooo Bearish on Nickme ? 1) When(not IF) the US consumer craps out and can't buy anymore shit many, many, many JAP companies just fold up and close shop. The US consumer is the El Gordo of consumers. 2) When the JAPs finally close the Ghost Banks (banks which are insolvent but still seemingly alive and kicking) many banking stocks will to ZERO. All in all I'm leaning towards a bottom around 2000. And it'll be stuck around there are at least a decade. It's funny that folks are licking their chops at the prospect of chasing Mr Nickme because exactly one year ago that's what they were saying. And you know the rest of the story... they got creamed. And they'll get creamed even worse here if they chase Nickme. My suggestion is to either take up an eastern religion and request a mantra of something like "Don't toss money at Mr Nickme" and repeat i over and over again about 10,000 times or so. Or see a good psychiatrist. Cuz man you really need one bad if you're thinking of chasing this turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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