Metamucil Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 More up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 BULL MARKET IN NICOTENE CONTINUES Altria goes to new highs. Still good value Yep Tobacco, Big Oil, GAs, Coal, Gamblers, Chemicals, Drillers, Miners etc have all made out like bandits since the big bubble burst in 2000. All "sin" stocks. The sin rally continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 interesting essay from todays paper... New Orleans shows us we all have the capacity to be barbaric. BEFORE our attention wanders on to the next headline story, let's learn Katrina's big lesson. This is not about the incompetence of the Bush Administration, the scandalous neglect of poor blacks in America or our unpreparedness for major natural disasters, though all of those apply. Katrina's big lesson is that the crust of civilisation on which we tread is always wafer thin. One tremor, and you've fallen through, scratching and gouging for your life like a wild dog. http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-...5772644245.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 interesting essay from todays paper... New Orleans shows us we all have the capacity to be barbaric. BEFORE our attention wanders on to the next headline story, let's learn Katrina's big lesson. This is not about the incompetence of the Bush Administration, the scandalous neglect of poor blacks in America or our unpreparedness for major natural disasters, though all of those apply. Katrina's big lesson is that the crust of civilisation on which we tread is always wafer thin. One tremor, and you've fallen through, scratching and gouging for your life like a wild dog. http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-...5772644245.html <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Bris Strange that you should bring that up--you see as of late I've had these episodic propensities for getting on all fours and chewing the legs of the footstool-- beardrech Pleaser pardon my gallows humour this evening I really feel as if the trapdoor is about to open and I'm about to swing---I need a Grandfather clock with hours reading 100 billion 200 billion and so forth thus enabling me to keep a proper perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyboardProspector Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 Just a thought.... Over the next six weeks or so, Treasury will need to pull around $40B in new borrowing -- On top of the original plan -- Much of this money short term will come from the 4, 13, and 26 week auctions. When thay add significantly to these auctions, the spread between overnight rates and the 6 month grows, probably to 40 basis points. (when they pay down these bills, the 6 month spread shrinks to around 20 basis points). With these large demands, it could climb even higher than .4%, but for guestimation, lets use that number. If the Fed bumps rates to 3.75% on Sept 20th, and that's a real guessing game right now, that would put the 6 month bill at 4.15%. The 10 year is at 4.14% right now.......... Get the picture? Either we have six weeks to a dead flat 6 mo to 10 year yield curve, or the 10 year jumps..... The carry trade? (or what's left of it) Dead. The RE market? Dead. -Oh, The times they are a changin........ ---------------------On a slightly different but related topic------------------- Next Friday is quadruple witching. Of course that means quarterly interest rate options also expire. In june there was a short squeeze in bonds because of the extreamly large number of calls on the 10 year, causing the fails that pushed 10 yr treasuries up (yields down) to 3.80%.... Remember? Well I understand the potential squeeze is even greater this quarter.. Remember the Fed's settlements failure 'Come to Jesus' meeting scheduled for next Thursday? Yea, Katrina made everybody forget about it. Well it happens just as expirations/settlements will be at their peak. -Oh, The times they are a changin........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyboardProspector Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 I think I've mentioned on this board the potential exists for a short term gasoline glut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeyboardProspector Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 Wow, think about it. In two weeks we could have the 6 month T-Bill yeilding 4.10% and the 10 year Note yielding 3.85%. Think how many hedges funds would blow a gasket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 in poker terms,the US govt and FED are "pot committed",meaning that they have too much money in the pot to turn back,they have to go all in regardless of the fact that they are bluffing and have no hand at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 The RE bubble in Oregon has taken a bizzare turn with underground origin..htp://livescience.com/forcesofnature/ap_0...ters_bulge.html <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I climbed the Middle and South sister in one day once and soloed the North Sister another time.... Broken Top is a great climb--splended when approached from the south. My step father, who is about 55, lives in Corvalis and informs me that many of his peers who have bought "income properties" in the Willamette Valley are now underwater and can not find renters willing to cover their notes. He is definitely not a RE bear, so his observations can be taken at face value. Damn, when has Oregon ever had an economy to speak of? My little sister started school at Redlands this week and was very disappointed to find that it is full of Southern Californians . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 A quick overview of the energy situation, and it doesn't look good... http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2005/0908.html <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The energy situation is much worse than commonly perceived. I just hope that the Fed prints up a lot of dollars, so people can heat their homes this winter like they did in the Weimar republic (above). <{POST_SNAPBACK}> When you put it that way, I realize there is an unspoken contract between the government and the populace that the currency will not be so molested that the necessities of heat and electicity become exhorbinately expensive. Think of all of those military wives with balooning heating bills this winter..... Francisco welcome to the third world Comrade, can you give me a lift to the abattoir? I am shopping for 5 pounds of soup bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 More up. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> P&F's: Sitting right at resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 9, 2005 Report Share Posted September 9, 2005 GAS AND THE MEDIA Wall to wall stories about price gouging and panic buying, long ques for petrol. So 70's - I was there I remember. The 70's replay all over again. Human nature never changes. Lots of SUV bargains coming to a used car yard near you. Cheaper scrap metal prices as well - all those SUV's and hummers recylced into whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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