ThorAss Posted July 31, 2005 Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 At bearly 5 pages a week, I think perhaps monthly will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowfish Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 Prolly right, but if you make bad calls - like I often do...nice to have a new thread to move on to.... Still think we take a step or two back before going forward, but spot currently not giving a damn about what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 A correction in GG down to $14.80 is a far cry from a "plunge" to $12. $14.80 doesn't seem unrealistic, especially if you are looking for a HUI correction down to 185 or so. IMO, HUI could break either way, or just drift in a mini trading range. 191 is the first fib level, that might be as far as it gets. I'm looking for $440 as first stop on gold and $7.40-$7.50 on silver, in the next ten trading days, before a pullback. It's tough to see the HUI crushed too much in that environment. GG was about the only miner that was up on better than average volume on Friday, but overall it's the summer doldrums in terms of volume, which is why I give the HUI a shot at 180-185. When volume does come in, it will be on the upside. We may be fast approaching a time when the technical trading isn't going to be so easy. The pullbacks that "should" come won't. I know it's been easy because I've made money trading long only and I'm the worlds worst trader. FWIW, Hamilton's target on this upcoming run is HUI 330. GFMS, a generally conservative bunch is looking for $500 gold by year end. The buck seems to be running out of steam and the COT data got more bullish this week. COT has been dead nuts for what 2 years now? Maybe it will be different this time. Seasonality chart for buck from gold-eagle: http://www.seasonal-charts.com/cash/currenci/usdx/chart.gif We all know where eachother stand and my optimism gets as old as BV's bearishness. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Well then here's my monthly, just in case by some stretch I happen to get it right. Charmin - should be back in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 Prolly right, but if you make bad calls - like I often do...nice to have a new thread to move on to.... Still think we take a step or two back before going forward, but spot currently not giving a damn about what I think. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You still may be right, a good start doesn't guarantee a good finish. If anyone knows that it's a holder of gold. The HUI has some proving to do, it needs a couple of strong up days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 1, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 Wasn't sure which way it was going to go today but I was pretty sure they were going to try to move it. They always like to do something while the Canadian markets are closed. Don't know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 if people have not seen the forbes article on gold, i posted the link last week, very provacative, especially since establishment forbes has been anti gold forever. it feels like 90% of the time nothing happens. its preparing for the 10% that consumes the 90%. anyhow, w/this mornings action, it is apparent the correction has more to go. looking for an end to this, towards the end of this month. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyanide Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 "Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace from day to day...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted August 1, 2005 Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 The past 4 days of pathetic performance in the gold stocks have essentially negated July 1, when gold was down 8.60 and the HUI flat. Hard to be bullish when 4 straight +$2 days in gold end with the HUI flat each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 1, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 The past 4 days of pathetic performance in the gold stocks have essentially negated July 1, when gold was down 8.60 and the HUI flat. Hard to be bullish when 4 straight +$2 days in gold end with the HUI flat each time. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Maybe it's a clever ruse to convince weak hands to sell their gold shares cheaply. ...or not! Fun, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 1, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2005 My Hooey timing model registered a COT today with a SELL to be executed tomorrow. However this is a SELL by the slenderest of margins. These weak signals are not so trustworthy. A whipsaw occured on 19th/20th of June resulting in a SELL then buying back the next day a point higher. This could easily happen again. On a good signal the model executes on the open (or could even have executed intra-day today) whilst in the present situation a lower low or even a break of 195.5 are preferred. My model is NOT black-box and requires some minor quality assurance. However, these "adjustments" make little real difference to the performance since most of the real gains come from the big unmistakeable moves. This stuff is just chicken feed window dressing. A point here and a point there. Certainly today MIGHT have been a 2 week cycle low and we head up from here for a few days at least. However, it seems to me that recent performance suggests the beginning of a waterfall decline to where ... I have no idea. This is more support for my sell weakness, hold strength theory for tomorrow. ==================================================== Why you shouldn't look at a correction in the PMS in a negative light!! A} You're 100% long and NOT a trader. Well you of all people shouldn't be concerned. In fact why are you even watching it. You're not looking to buy and you are sure it is going higher, much higher. You'll know it's time to sell when the guy at checkout counter of the hardware store gives you a hot gold stock tip. B} You're still accumulating but NOT a trader. Well then, a correction is just what you're looking for. Now it's only a question of what to buy and at what price or on which day. C} You ARE a trader (maket timer.) This is a chance for you to take some profits, then buy back at lower levels thus ultimately increasing profits. You can rebalance your holdings and reselect your portfolio. If worse comes to worse and you get whopsawed then at least you know you were playing the odds and what you did was "the right thing" on average. And at least you've generated some commissions for your hard working borker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 2, 2005 Report Share Posted August 2, 2005 The past 4 days of pathetic performance in the gold stocks have essentially negated July 1, when gold was down 8.60 and the HUI flat. Hard to be bullish when 4 straight +$2 days in gold end with the HUI flat each time. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Maybe it's a clever ruse to convince weak hands to sell their gold shares cheaply. ...or not! Fun, isn't it? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Welcome to the dark side. Now do you fade yourself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 2, 2005 Report Share Posted August 2, 2005 My Hooey timing model registered a COT today with a SELL to be executed tomorrow. However this is a SELL by the slenderest of margins. These weak signals are not so trustworthy. A whipsaw occured on 19th/20th of June resulting in a SELL then buying back the next day a point higher. This could easily happen again. On a good signal the model executes on the open (or could even have executed intra-day today) whilst in the present situation a lower low or even a break of 195.5 are preferred. My model is NOT black-box and requires some minor quality assurance. However, these "adjustments" make little real difference to the performance since most of the real gains come from the big unmistakeable moves. This stuff is just chicken feed window dressing. A point here and a point there. Certainly today MIGHT have been a 2 week cycle low and we head up from here for a few days at least. However, it seems to me that recent performance suggests the beginning of a waterfall decline to where ... I have no idea. This is more support for my sell weakness, hold strength theory for tomorrow. ==================================================== Why you shouldn't look at a correction in the PMS in a negative light!! A} You're 100% long and NOT a trader. Well you of all people shouldn't be concerned. In fact why are you even watching it. You're not looking to buy and you are sure it is going higher, much higher. You'll know it's time to sell when the guy at checkout counter of the hardware store gives you a hot gold stock tip. B} You're still accumulating but NOT a trader. Well then, a correction is just what you're looking for. Now it's only a question of what to buy and at what price or on which day. C} You ARE a trader (maket timer.) This is a chance for you to take some profits, then buy back at lower levels thus ultimately increasing profits. You can rebalance your holdings and reselect your portfolio. If worse comes to worse and you get whopsawed then at least you know you were playing the odds and what you did was "the right thing" on average. And at least you've generated some commissions for your hard working borker. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I think as dharma does this has more downside to go. If however we can close above 210 we have been building a launch pad and I will just close my eyes and buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted August 2, 2005 Report Share Posted August 2, 2005 "Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace from day to day...." <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This and some other forums, where the riches are just at the end of the rainbow and the big move is right around the corner, you can see it on the HUI chart - really. My favorite is "just one more low" THEN it will be safe. That being said, I've swallowed it all, hook, line and sinker. On a serious note, I'm watching RGLD and GG for leadership. It seems NEM has been replaced as the leader of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 2, 2005 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2005 "Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace from day to day...." <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This and some other forums, where the riches are just at the end of the rainbow and the big move is right around the corner, you can see it on the HUI chart - really. My favorite is "just one more low" THEN it will be safe. That being said, I've swallowed it all, hook, line and sinker. On a serious note, I'm watching RGLD and GG for leadership. It seems NEM has been replaced as the leader of the pack. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Well until you reach Shangri-la ... LEADER OF THE PACK Hilary and Halie Duff - From American Dreams [spoken] Is she really going out with him? Well, there she is. Let's ask her. Betty, is that Jimmy's ring you're wearing? Mm-hmm Gee, it must be great riding with him Is he picking you up after school today? Uh-uh By the way, where'd you meet him? I met him at the candy store He turned around and smiled at me You get the picture? (yes, we see) That's when I fell for (the leader of the pack) My folks were always putting him down (down, down) They said he came from the wrong side of town (whatcha mean when ya say that he came from the wrong side of town?) They told me he was bad But I knew he was sad That's why I fell for (the leader of the pack) One day my dad said, "Find someone new" I had to tell my Jimmy we're through (whatcha mean when ya say that ya better go find somebody new?) He stood there and asked me why But all I could do was cry I'm sorry I hurt you (the leader of the pack) [spoken] He sort of smiled and kissed me goodbye The tears were beginning to show As he drove away on that rainy night I begged him to go slow But whether he heard, I'll never know Look out! Look out! Look out! Look out! I felt so helpless, what could I do? Remembering all the things we'd been through In school they all stop and stare I can't hide the tears, but I don't care I'll never forget him (the leader of the pack) The leader of the pack - now he's gone The leader of the pack - now he's gone The leader of the pack - now he's gone The leader of the pack - now he's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted August 2, 2005 Report Share Posted August 2, 2005 So, GG makes new high, but is it a high before the smackdown or is it a breakout? If I look at the POG, then I'd say fakeout, not breakout. GRS also getting close. Then again, the POG is down and HUI up for now, although by days end, could be down hard. The possibilities are endless. This stuff gives me a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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