bearvest Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 XAU: Impulse down followed by a smaller impulse up. Second impulse may be wave a, and the correction will be broader and longer than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 develop these systems, then override them! karumbha!!!!! looks like the buy signal on the hourlies was a good one. i will wait for the correction to be over, then add. looks like they are adding money to the system at a breakneck speed. this will goose all the markets higher. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 NEM: The impulse was followed by an abc. The next move, yesterday afternoon was an abc of one degree lesser trend. The way to count it to to assign an "x". We'll now have a second abc up. It is simply a more complex correction--not the start of something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 21, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 Went long. Watching it careful like. It was crappy for a pullback as they were really very well supported. I'm still like bv of the opinion that she ain't done down yet. Still if it wants to go up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 Free Elliot week Don't forget to share FreeWeek with your friends, colleagues and chat room buddies. Send them to http://www.elliottwave.com/freeweek to sign up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 China depegs. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I looked at the dollar agian today and was thinking: what the heck is the dollar doing? I guess it makes sense this time. This is big news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 Bought another 1000 GSS @ 3.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 Flash news New terrorist attacks in London Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 Dollar down again. Really wild the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 i dont know if the correction is over. however surprises will be to the upside. this is huge news. now the chinese etc do not have to buy dolars to keep their currency pegged. above the two recent highs @95.67 and we are starting a new upwave. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 i dont know if the correction is over. however surprises will be to the upside. this is huge news. now the chinese etc do not have to buy dolars to keep their currency pegged. above the two recent highs @95.67 and we are starting a new upwave. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Careful. Rangebound 190-208 HUI. ABC up would be 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 XAU: Here's the bearish count. And there's not a lot to commend it. The decline from the November highs is a large ABC correction. It is followed by a smaller abc--an "x" wave. Action after an x wave is a repetition of the larger ABC. If so, the up and down action since the beginning of July is a pair of 1 and 2's setting up a very nasty wave iii of 3. The 60 minute zeroes in on this action. The wave 1's are plainly impulses down. The big problem is the final wave ii. The action over the last 3 days, labelled as red abc, hardly looks corrective. It rises in a parabolic channel. As wave ii cannot overlap the origin of i, any rally will negate the count. Absent an impulsive decline---and very soon, this count will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 NEM: Again, here's the bearish count. And there's a bit more to commend it. It's a 10 minute chart. Look at the candles for the last 30 minutes. On a 30 minute chart, 2 days ago and today, they were bearish engulfing. There's a lot of late day selling. This is not an impulse up due to the overlap between the first red a and blue B. The blue count traces out a clear ABC, with impulsive looking red a and c waves and corrective looking red c waves. Retracement is nearing 61.8%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 21, 2005 Report Share Posted July 21, 2005 XAU: Here's the bearish count. And there's not a lot to commend it. The decline from the November highs is a large ABC correction. It is followed by a smaller abc--an "x" wave. Action after an x wave is a repetition of the larger ABC. If so, the up and down action since the beginning of July is a pair of 1 and 2's setting up a very nasty wave iii of 3. The 60 minute zeroes in on this action. The wave 1's are plainly impulses down. The big problem is the final wave ii. The action over the last 3 days, labelled as red abc, hardly looks corrective. It rises in a parabolic channel. As wave ii cannot overlap the origin of i, any rally will negate the count. Absent an impulsive decline---and very soon, this count will be wrong. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I got to tell you with all due respect I am having a problem following here Bear. Are you bullish or bearish? This is the way I see it. If we take out 210 we are for sure in a bull move and the double bottom of 163-165 WAS THE bottom. The HUI and the XAU must follow the same form here. One cannot be bullish and the other bearish. This is where the Ellioticians lose me. It is not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 22, 2005 Report Share Posted July 22, 2005 I got to tell you with all due respect I am having a problem following here Bear. Are you bullish or bearish? This is the way I see it. If we take out 210 we are for sure in a bull move and the double bottom of 163-165 WAS THE bottom. The HUI and the XAU must follow the same form here. One cannot be bullish and the other bearish. This is where the Ellioticians lose me. It is not possible. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The "HUI over 210 signifies a new bull move and that 162 & 165 double bottom was the bottom" reasoning makes compelte sense to me. From what I understand of bear's counts, if the HUI rallies any more from here, it negates the bearish count he is going on, due to the overlap. If it collapses here, the bearish count is correct and predicts the 'one more leg down' scenario. The HUI and the NEM chart look different, NEM is showing weakness. Perhaps this just means that NEM is showing company specific problems and will underperform in the near future, relative to the HUI? The count that makes a lot of sense to me is: 2001 to the end of 2003 was 5 waves up, which is wave 1 of this gold bull market followed by an ABC correction for wave 2, where A and C each ended in the double bottoms of 163/165. This is to be followed by wave 3 up, which started May 16, and we are early in it. (This is the same as what Frank Barberra posted on Financial sense and discussed in the interview on FSN a couple weeks back). Bearvests bearish scenario is that the C wave of that ABC correction is not finished yet, and has one more wave down. (If I understand correctly). Obviously, I hope (and believe) that 165 was THE bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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