Ageka Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 In Euroland things are balancing out Gold going down Goldshares going up But the shares still have to go up a lot to get a normal ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 Low volume today across the board, going to have to pick up some steam one way or the other. Did somebody mention GG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plantigrade Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 I know it is PC to be wall-of-worried, but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 I know it is PC to be wall-of-worried, but <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yes, we're very near resolution of this ascending triangle. I believe gold and silver have bottomed or are near bottoms and the stocks will move higher. The beginning of the month, when gold collapsed 8.50 but the HUI and XAU closed up, was the day that told what was going on. All dips are being bought, even with gold getting smashed. We are not going to get a large pullback from this level, imo. I think we go to 220, then maybe we pull back to 205 HUI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 There is a lot more to it then meets the eye Mr. Bear. There is some decent accumulation going on which one may not be able to readily see from the Hooey alone. Also you didn't take me up on the E-wave of the ratio charts I mentioned which removes the US$ component. Also very very illuminating. I remain quite bullish and hopefully for all the right reasons. I just see a shakeout which will be a buy. Don't want to miss the train however. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Here are 3 majors that account for 40% of XAU. Whither accumulation? Note that ABX is already in a clearly defined breakdown pattern, and AU is in a major rising wedge. Both have negative A/D divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 14, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 hA, FUNNY YOU SHOULD WRITE THAT AS i WAS JUST LOOKING AT MY LT NEM chart going back to 2000 which has the ass/dist curve on it. It peak exactly at the end of '03 and has been almost straight down since. Granted NEM has some co. specific problems like Indonesia but I'd say it is not encouraging. I have changed my focus to NEM now and for the forseeable to get a feel for IT direction as many possibilities are still in play.For now NEM is saying DOWN so I am OUT (mostly). On the other hand gold stocks between $1 and $10 and with volume over 200,000 shares per day are 90% bullish. Go figure or GO GOLD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Which stocks are the ones to buy at the start of a strong upmove? The juniors. The risky ones. Thats whats getting bought. NEM doesnt need to lead. NEM lead during the corrective phase in 2004, when the juniors were just getting more and more undervalued. NEM leading again isnt what we need, we need stregnth in the more speculative stocks, imo, to show that things are picking up again. As Thor says, its these stocks that are very bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 hA, FUNNY YOU SHOULD WRITE THAT AS i WAS JUST LOOKING AT MY LT NEM chart going back to 2000 which has the ass/dist curve on it. It peak exactly at the end of '03 and has been almost straight down since. Granted NEM has some co. specific problems like Indonesia but I'd say it is not encouraging. I have changed my focus to NEM now and for the forseeable to get a feel for IT direction as many possibilities are still in play.For now NEM is saying DOWN so I am OUT (mostly). On the other hand gold stocks between $1 and $10 and with volume over 200,000 shares per day are 90% bullish. Go figure or GO GOLD? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Stocks under $10.00 in HUI and XAU. I disagree with Ander. In wave 1, the large caps lead. Most folks are out of the market swearing never to get back in. Funds and large traders go for the stocks with significant volume. At wave 3, there's talk of the powerful rally. Folks see the improvement in their funds and boast. There's a search for the "next big thing". The second tier stocks improve. At wave 5, everyone is talking at the cocktail party about---well, BRE-X, for example. It is then that the speculative stocks rally. Thus, if we're to be led out of the wilderness, the big guys that must lead. If they're deserting, because it's every man for himself (please assume that "guy" can equate to "lady" and "man" and "himself" can be read with appropriate gender modifications. I'm not sexist, just a lazy typist), the big guys (there, I said it again) will lead us down. Here are some of the under $10.00 stocks that populate XAU and HUI. Save and except for GLG--which could undergo a truncated 5th due to it's powerful 3rd--there's not a lot to commend these stocks to my eyes. Edit: Strathmore was simply on my watch list as a short candidate as a continuation triangle. Of course, it is not an index stock. HMY's chart should read that wave i and iv of 5 overlapped, leaving a bearish 3 wave count for 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 14, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Well, good discussion and I don't want to take sides here as without thorough research I'd be whistling out of my ThorAss. However, I would just like to say the following: I have 20 stocks on my $1 - $10, Vol>200,000 shares/day list. 3 are large caps (>$1000M Maket Crap): HMY IVN KGC 15 are Midcaps ($100M to $1000M): AUY BGO CBJ CDE DROOY EGO GSS HL KRY MNG NG NTO NXG SWC TGB 2 are Juniors: ($10M to $100M): ALMI DEZ Only HL and KRY are not short-term bullish as defined by being above their 20 dayEMA. TGB is right on $1 and its average volume has just dropped below 200000 shares/day and it sucks hind tit. But on balance I have to agree with da bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Silver holding minor sport so far 6.96-7.01 Got a little worried AH yesterday when it traded down to 6.92. Be nice to see the broads actually drag the miners higher for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Which stocks are the ones to buy at the start of a strong upmove? The juniors. The risky ones. Thats whats getting bought. NEM doesnt need to lead. NEM lead during the corrective phase in 2004, when the juniors were just getting more and more undervalued. NEM leading again isnt what we need, we need stregnth in the more speculative stocks, imo, to show that things are picking up again. As Thor says, its these stocks that are very bullish. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I dunno Ander, I kinda agree with BV. Not so much on market direction, but I don't think this plane fly's until NEM gets off the ground. The juniors I believe tend to lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 i think this correction will be over in a few weeks. i am looking for lower #s. but overall this is a consolidation. in fact if one looks at a monthly chart of gold, the last year has been a consolidation. i am playing it for a blast up. stay tuned dharma in 80 the gold topped jan however the shares kept going for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 14, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Bon Jour and welcome to Bastille Day. I mentioned it might not be pretty today. I also said this might prove to be the bottom. Hard to believe that from where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Buying small again. So far so good. Wouldn't be surprised if we have a few more dips down and saving $ accordingly. If things reverse quicker I won't mind paying more. I'm buying GBN @ .92 and eyeing more DROOY (I'd really like .92). I'll try to get CBJ at 2.00 flat - maybe half at 2.10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 14, 2005 Report Share Posted July 14, 2005 Bon Jour and welcome to Bastille Day. I mentioned it might not be pretty today. I also said this might prove to be the bottom. Hard to believe that from where I sit. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I don't know what everybody has with july with us it is the 21 st of July Bonsoir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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