ThorAss Posted July 12, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 Guess who! Well I duecided to due some of my own due dueligence. And I'm happy to report I got some very encouraging news to impart. Being an Elliott Idiott I suggest you take what I write here with salt. I looked at many charts but the ones that stood out were: $HUI:$GOLD $HUI:$XEU $HUI:$XAU $SILVER I looked at all of these from late '00 till now. Taking the last first it is obvious to me that with silver the top is still a long long long way from here in time and price. A nice rounded bottom followed by an amazing sequence of breakouts and pullbacks. The other 3 are what really grabbed me. Divorced from the US$ bear market these charts show the real nature of the gold bull and where we are. Each completed a 5 wave move off the bottom ending in Dec '03/Jan '04. No surprise then after the long run up that we went into a long ABC sideways decline and reached our C low in May. That's 3 years up and 1 1/2 year pullback. And each pulled back to roughly 50% of their total moves. Where are we now? On the big wave the May low completed both the ABC correction and Big Wave 2. To make a long story short we are in mini 3 of a small 3 of a big 3. And by the time wave 3 is complete sometime towards the end of the decade the Hooey and Gold could be trading at par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 The hardest thing for me to believe is that I've suffered through the last year and a half of the correction without selling. I seem to remember one of the guru's talking about a pretty heavy pullback in the early/mid 70's bull market that lasted about the same amount of time. I hope the train is finally leaving the station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 just back from bc. what a wonderful cosmopolitan place. beautiful. caught up on the thread last week and this week. i agree w/bear, the dolar correction looks over. the correction in the gold shares could be over, or it could last longer. however, if the dolar starts its decline, i would assume the metals would vault. no, i do not think there is much interest in gold/pms w/the public. not yet. not doing anything @this point just holding on. no margin. no debt. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 12, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 Guess it's time to put in one of those ugly candles on the Hooey to mark a ST top. Have so many of them that they are getting monotonous. And yet we press higher. Still the rally appears to be weakening not strengthening. Maybe we need the spike down to shake and bake. Support now right at the number (200). If we spike lower 191, 186 and 181 are the 3 Fibo destinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 12, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 We have been turned back at exactly the point where we needed to push through. This would appear to be a very bad sign and not what I was expecting. Is it a fakeout shakeout or are the Bad News PMS bears right? We were at the banks of the Rubicon but we turned away. Hmmm, tough call now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 In Ocean City, NJ since Saturday...not really my idea of a vacation but 'went along' with the crowd (13 of us). I sold 5k DROOY yesterday at 1.04/5. The other 5k today at 1.08. .96 average on the 10k. Looking for opportunities in my usual suspects: CBJ, BGO, GSS, EGO, DROOY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 12, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 I thought I'd do my panic selling here rather than at lower prices tomorrow. However, in the last few minutes they've managed to turn 'em back up. At this point I'm happy to be rotating out and will wait to see what develops. Need a BO now to get me interested but in the days to come other things may prove to be sufficient cause to get longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 if we are still in the correction, i would expect to see 89.63 max. its a push and pull at this point between the bulls and bears. however, later this month i think things are going to get rosy for the pms. looking for $500+ for gold by the end of the year. once mid august rolls around the pms should start to really roll. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 euro per ounce nearly at 65 ema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faramir Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 The TSX Gold and HUI are diverging again. There is no doubt that a weakening Canadian gold price is to blame. The Loonie has gained against all major currencies over the last month despite US Dollar strength. I'm wondering if we get a South Africa tragedy here in Canada? If the Loonie can get to 83 cents on US Dollar strength where does it go when the US Dollar weakens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 12, 2005 Report Share Posted July 12, 2005 if we are still in the correction, i would expect to see 89.63 max. its a push and pull at this point between the bulls and bears. however, later this month i think things are going to get rosy for the pms. looking for $500+ for gold by the end of the year. once mid august rolls around the pms should start to really roll. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> We may just have to grind it out here for a couple more weeks. Op ex this week, might get a little clearer picture next week. I've been trading my margin positions like crazy the last two weeks, should get a call from the broker wondering what is up. Making some decent $$ for a change though. Not a bad close EXCEPT that the dollar got plastered and gold and silver went nowhere, which leads me to believe that we might get slapped upside the head tommorrow on the "better than expected" deficit numbers. Broads are looking tired to me. PM's who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 The hardest thing for me to believe is that I've suffered through the last year and a half of the correction without selling. I seem to remember one of the guru's talking about a pretty heavy pullback in the early/mid 70's bull market that lasted about the same amount of time. I hope the train is finally leaving the station. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> OH: I have not posted here for a while. I just want you to know you are not the only one who are suffering in the last 1.5 years. Like you, I have not sold any significant position either. By the way, it looks like a gold bug soon will become the head of SEC. I just hope that those who manipulating gold will be a little bit more careful now. "President Bush's choice to head the Securities and Exchange Commission, Rep. Christopher Cox, has hundreds of thousands of dollars in money-market and mutual funds and large holdings in stocks, his financial report shows. "In his financial disclosure report prepared for his Senate confirmation hearing, which became available Tuesday, Cox lists total holdings of between $565,004 and $1.15 million in stock of Coca-Cola Co., Newmont Mining Corp., Continental Airlines Inc. and Gold Fields Ltd. of South Africa." More here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tig 'Ol Bitties Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 The hardest thing for me to believe is that I've suffered through the last year and a half of the correction without selling.? I seem to remember one of the guru's talking about a pretty heavy pullback in the early/mid 70's bull market that lasted about the same amount of time. ? I hope the train is finally leaving the station. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> OH: I have not posted here for a while. I just want you to know you are not the only one who are suffering in the last 1.5 years. Like you, I have not sold any significant position either. By the way, it looks like a gold bug soon will become the head of SEC. I just hope that those who manipulating gold will be a little bit more careful now. "President Bush's choice to head the Securities and Exchange Commission, Rep. Christopher Cox, has hundreds of thousands of dollars in money-market and mutual funds and large holdings in stocks, his financial report shows. "In his financial disclosure report prepared for his Senate confirmation hearing, which became available Tuesday, Cox lists total holdings of between $565,004 and $1.15 million in stock of Coca-Cola Co., Newmont Mining Corp., Continental Airlines Inc. and Gold Fields Ltd. of South Africa." More here <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Something like that is nice to see, thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 13, 2005 Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 Ditto... Good digging.. Although once they get into the seats of real power; anything can happen. Witnesses Greenspam and his views on the importance of Gold. We'll see. BTW, Rep. Chris Cox is from the area near Habits and myself. Thanks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 13, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2005 This from His Emittence The feargreeddude: The XAU managed to test the recent high, before closing down a small fraction. A major correction still looms. ... which is why I sold 80% of my position in Tuesday's session. Now I have to cheer for the dark side. At least temporarily. In my way of seeing things, yesterday's action significantly increased risk. Was it manipulation? To anyone posing that question or making that assertion, I would ask, "Were YOU buying at the top yesterday?" If we are building up strength for the move it stands to reason that we need a sharp sell-off so da boyz can get long. And they can get in line, hopefully right behind me. Remember, their only advantage is that they know what's going to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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