ThorAss Posted July 3, 2005 Report Share Posted July 3, 2005 I come not to praise the cartel but to bury them. Starting my temporary tenure early. Of Cycles and Elliott Waves: If you go to Dr. Au's Pubic Fart Lisp you will find at the top 6 charts which I have recently submitted to the good doctor. They are my weak attempts at Elliott Wave ANALysis. My first attempt was POG and now my recent botchulism of the Hooey. The other 4 I've yet to do: POS, Zow, NEM, and USERX. Hooeyism: Seemed easier to do then the POG. Except for one 1/4 overlap of a minor 12345 I think I have a pretty clear 5 wave count to the end '04 high. This may also have been the high for the eight year cycle. If the last year and a half are anything to go by then the down part of the 8 year cycle looks to be a long drawn out flat affair. And since the '03 high the analysis has become more subjective. I see 3 possibilities and regardless of the fear of sounding like Ike I will list them. 1. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in 3 of 1 down and Prechter is MY Daddy. (Not Annotated) Don't really like this one. It would have us completing 2 up in Nov '04 and put us in the big 3 slide which would take out the 163 low big time. The problem to me is that if we did a minor 123 down to the May low then the minor 4 up (just completed/still active?) should not have overlapped the minor wave 1 Feb '05 low at about 195. 2. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in C of 2 (12345up) - Extended Flat (Not Annotated) This one is better. Coming off the Nov '04 high we have embarked on an extended flat of ABCs. Main corrective wave A completed at May '04 low and main corrective wave B completed at Nov '04 high. If the '03 high was just wave 1 of a Super Cycle (circa 20 year) then a forthcoming wave C (lower than 163) would signal the completion of Super Wave 2 (likely) and the start of the Super Wave 3 which would be jolly profitabull. Again, I don't like the way the minor cycles are playing out and figure we should have made a lower low when we had the chance in May '05 to complete C of 2 but didn't. 3. 8 Year Cycle is Bogart - We are in 3 of 3 Up - Sinclair is My Daddy. (Annotated) As per chart, we completed super cycle wave 1 in Nov '03 then Super Cycle Wave 2 completed in May '04 with a 38.2% Fib retracement and a retest a year later giving us our 12 punch in the process. We have now begun our long heralded 3 of 3 and still nobody believes it. Anyway I like Option 3 - a 3 of 3 and we Go to Da Moon Alice but that's just me. Would love to hear from all you Idiot Wavers and other assorted GoldKooks your opinions on all of this. Next I will start on the other charts. In a couple of hours I'm off to Singers (Singapore) to get a Visa and try to buy an Elliott book or 2 and totally give myself over to the dark side of TA. TA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 3, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 3, 2005 ... and Happy Fourth of Julie all you Merkins everywhere. Wes incerely hope for a brighter future for all. ...and now only 10 days to Bastille Day ThorAss' call for the 2 low and the start of a 3 of 3 of 3. TA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 3, 2005 Report Share Posted July 3, 2005 I come not to praise the cartel but to bury them. Starting my temporary tenure early. Of Cycles and Elliott Waves: If you go to Dr. Au's Pubic Fart Lisp you will find at the top 6 charts which I have recently submitted to the good doctor. They are my weak attempts at Elliott Wave ANALysis. My first attempt was POG and now my recent botchulism of the Hooey. The other 4 I've yet to do: POS, Zow, NEM, and USERX. Hooeyism: Seemed easier to do then the POG. Except for one 1/4 overlap of a minor 12345 I think I have a pretty clear 5 wave count to the end '04 high. This may also have been the high for the eight year cycle. If the last year and a half are anything to go by then the down part of the 8 year cycle looks to be a long drawn out flat affair. And since the '03 high the analysis has become more subjective. I see 3 possibilities and regardless of the fear of sounding like Ike I will list them. 1. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in 3 of 1 down and Prechter is MY Daddy. (Not Annotated) Don't really like this one. It would have us completing 2 up in Nov '04 and put us in the big 3 slide which would take out the 163 low big time. The problem to me is that if we did a minor 123 down to the May low then the minor 4 up (just completed/still active?) should not have overlapped the minor wave 1 Feb '05 low at about 195. 2. 8 Year Cycle Active - We are in C of 2 (12345up) - Extended Flat (Not Annotated) This one is better. Coming off the Nov '04 high we have embarked on an extended flat of ABCs. Main corrective wave A completed at May '04 low and main corrective wave B completed at Nov '04 high. If the '03 high was just wave 1 of a Super Cycle (circa 20 year) then a forthcoming wave C (lower than 163) would signal the completion of Super Wave 2 (likely) and the start of the Super Wave 3 which would be jolly profitabull. Again, I don't like the way the minor cycles are playing out and figure we should have made a lower low when we had the chance in May '05 to complete C of 2 but didn't. 3. 8 Year Cycle is Bogart - We are in 3 of 3 Up - Sinclair is My Daddy. (Annotated) As per chart, we completed super cycle wave 1 in Nov '03 then Super Cycle Wave 2 completed in May '04 with a 38.2% Fib retracement and a retest a year later giving us our 12 punch in the process. We have now begun our long heralded 3 of 3 and still nobody believes it. Anyway I like Option 3 - a 3 of 3 and we Go to Da Moon Alice but that's just me. Would love to hear from all you Idiot Wavers and other assorted GoldKooks your opinions on all of this. Next I will start on the other charts. In a couple of hours I'm off to Singers (Singapore) to get a Visa and try to buy an Elliott book or 2 and totally give myself over to the dark side of TA. TA <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thor I think more people than you think are positioned for and believe we go to the moon now. Now as before my main concern remains that we all KNOW the metals are going higher longer term. We all can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 ... and Happy Fourth of Julie all you Merkins everywhere. Wes incerely hope for a brighter future for all. ...and now only 10 days to Bastille Day ThorAss' call for the 2 low and the start of a 3 of 3 of 3. TA <{POST_SNAPBACK}> HUI: Thor-- hope this helps. Use MACD to get the longer count in impulses and think that it will often peak at wave 3 or iii of 3, absent a 5th wave extension. Often, you can see them coming. ABC's are tougher, as the peak in bearishness is at the third wave on MACD. The first chart is my long count on HUI. I only see 3 waves up. Same as the long XAU count, except it's clearly an ABC. Long term, we're in no-person's land (knowing that you're concerned with correctness). The second chart tries to focus on the daily count. There's no doubt that it's an abc down off the 2003 highs. And a cursory glance might lead one to believe that wave 4 completed. The problem is the recent overlap shown on the daily chart. It means that we are not impulsing up. Specifically, it means that we are not in wave iii, but rather, somewhere in wave c. What is the count when a 3 wave move is followed by a 3 wave move of one lesser degree of trend? Well, it's that whacky "X" wave. If it's an X, look for another abc down at a higher degree of trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 Click here We should find out soon if there is going to be B wave. If one doesn?t see B wave then it should be bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 4, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 Well here I am in Singapore and I managed to get the Poser's book at Borders. I've briefly flipped through it so now I'm an instant expert. A couple of questions, though. Bear, Why only go back to 2002 and not back to the start of the bull in '00. All, Actually that was it for questions. (This geyboard is krap.) Interesting muse more like it. Why the gold stocks lead. It's like this: First a rhetorical question. Why do people buy gold? To protect themselves from inflation (falling fiat) at a time when return from other assets are not worth the risk. Why buy gold stocks? When there is an expectation of rising profitability which is usually the result of an increasing commodity price. Why do gold stocks sell off while gold is still rising? The risk of gold stocks rising further is now greater than the risk in holding gold ie the end, one way or the other, is nigh. So why sell gold and buy gold stocks? Ones appetite for risk has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 4, 2005 Report Share Posted July 4, 2005 Euro fell like a brick today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Think you're confused? Read Kern's latest at 321 Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Think you're confused? Read Kern's latest at 321 Gold. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> is right. Does he have a serious following? Ph D in what? Minutia? He may have the part about Friday being bullish for the stocks, if that is what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Well here I am in Singapore and I managed to get the Poser's book at Borders. I've briefly flipped through it so now I'm an instant expert. A couple of questions, though. Bear, Why only go back to 2002 and not back to the start of the bull in '00. _________________________________________________________________ Thor- Because I made a mistake. I carelessly went back to a chart I'd drawn several months ago to illustrate how MACD is strongest in wave 3 or 3 of 3. Here's what it looked like. I agree now that is more like 5 waves to the December 2003 highs. The duration of the correction since then is more like a wave 2 than a mere 4th wave of a larger wave 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 5, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Well here I am in Singapore and I managed to get the Poser's book at Borders. I've briefly flipped through it so now I'm an instant expert. A couple of questions, though. Bear, Why only go back to 2002 and not back to the start of the bull in '00. _________________________________________________________________ Thor- Because I made a mistake. I carelessly went back to a chart I'd drawn several months ago to illustrate how MACD is strongest in wave 3 or 3 of 3. Here's what it looked like. I agree now that is more like 5 waves to the December 2003 highs. The duration of the correction since then is more like a wave 2 than a mere 4th wave of a larger wave 3. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thanks for the Claretfication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Euro fell like a brick today <{POST_SNAPBACK}> How's the metal's reacting? like silver... I think the thing that comes to mind is the discussion last week... high open interest on silver and breaking though the weekly/monthly support trendline...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Euro fell like a brick today <{POST_SNAPBACK}> How's the metal's reacting? like silver... I think the thing that comes to mind is the discussion last week... high open interest on silver and breaking though the weekly/monthly support trendline...hmmmm <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Euro down gold up Gold went up for the day but since the 65 ema is too far away it is still correcting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 Euro dollar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted July 5, 2005 Report Share Posted July 5, 2005 silver up gold down......bullish spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.