Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Charmin

Weekly Digger - June 13-17, '05

Recommended Posts

Charmin's feargreed dude post made me sit up and take notice. I see some negative divergences in the Gold Indices in some indicators I follow. Since I only get one chance per day to sell I thought it prudent to sell against the double top today. I think we might go higher but don't want to assume the risk from here. Out.

 

Yes I was watching that double top yesterday and thinking that if I had a shorter timeframe I would have wanted to be a seller too. My caste of untouchables fell then recovered some but my model portfolio flatlined then went ballistic in the pm.

So I'd guess we may have a bit of to and fro for awhile but I think that the trend is higher and the danger for dislocations is to the upside. Better in than out, therefore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PMS Technicals continue to improve, 4 weeks of improvement now. Bullish Percent has risen from 3% to 63% and Bullish LT from 3% to 24%. Ya gotta like dem apples! (Golden Delicious?? :D )

 

Thor:

 

How do you calculate your Bullish Percent?

 

Each weekend I calculate $BPHUI -- my calculation--it doesn't exist at Stockcharts.com. I use the same methodology as the other $BP's--simply take the percentage of stocks on P & F buy signals.

 

Only 2 stocks are on "buys"--GOLD and MDG. That puts my nominal $BPHUI at 7.5%.

 

Four stocks remain on P & F "sell" signals--BGO, GSS, IAG, and KGC.

 

I use it in a totally inverse way. With only 15 stocks, that usually trend in tandem, it's an Dover Sole/overbought indicator.

 

It is also an early warning system for individual stocks.

 

A week or so ago, I commented on MDG's potentially bullish reverse symmetrical triangle and its possible megaphone bottom.

 

The other 9 stocks are neutral. CDE, GFI and GLG have "high pole warnings". This is not a "buy" signal. but a warning of a 50% retracement. It is an alert to a potential trend change.

 

Thanks Bear, I'm glad you asked.

 

I'm not a P&F guy. For my Bullish Percent, I use a simple 10/20 day exp. moving average cross and base it on my 100+ US traded gold stocks. I find this faster acting and suits my purposes. For my LT bullish indicator I use a 20 day simple moving average of the RSI(14) > 50, again based on my 100+ gold stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charmin's feargreed dude post made me sit up and take notice. I see some negative divergences in the Gold Indices in some indicators I follow. Since I only get one chance per day to sell I thought it prudent to sell against the double top today. I think we might go higher but don't want to assume the risk from here. Out.

 

Yes I was watching that double top yesterday and thinking that if I had a shorter timeframe I would have wanted to be a seller too. My caste of untouchables fell then recovered some but my model portfolio flatlined then went ballistic in the pm.

So I'd guess we may have a bit of to and fro for awhile but I think that the trend is higher and the danger for dislocations is to the upside. Better in than out, therefore.

 

 

Spoken like a soon to be married man. Give 'em hell Thor. :D U no what I mean. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charmin's feargreed dude post made me sit up and take notice. I see some negative divergences in the Gold Indices in some indicators I follow. Since I only get one chance per day to sell I thought it prudent to sell against the double top today. I think we might go higher but don't want to assume the risk from here. Out.

 

Yes I was watching that double top yesterday and thinking that if I had a shorter timeframe I would have wanted to be a seller too. My caste of untouchables fell then recovered some but my model portfolio flatlined then went ballistic in the pm.

So I'd guess we may have a bit of to and fro for awhile but I think that the trend is higher and the danger for dislocations is to the upside. Better in than out, therefore.

 

 

 

Spoken like a soon to be married man. Give 'em hell Thor. :D U no what I mean. :lol:

 

You're wicked! :P

 

However the wedding is a done deal. June 4th is the date I have to try to remember annually. :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charmin's feargreed dude post made me sit up and take notice. I see some negative divergences in the Gold Indices in some indicators I follow. Since I only get one chance per day to sell I thought it prudent to sell against the double top today. I think we might go higher but don't want to assume the risk from here. Out.

 

Yes I was watching that double top yesterday and thinking that if I had a shorter timeframe I would have wanted to be a seller too. My caste of untouchables fell then recovered some but my model portfolio flatlined then went ballistic in the pm.

So I'd guess we may have a bit of to and fro for awhile but I think that the trend is higher and the danger for dislocations is to the upside. Better in than out, therefore.

 

 

 

Spoken like a soon to be married man. Give 'em hell Thor. :D U no what I mean. :lol:

 

You're wicked! :P

 

However the wedding is a done deal. June 4th is the date I have to try to remember annually. :ph34r:

 

Congrats. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ok, so everyone sees the supply line.... now what do they do with it.....

if the supply gets absorbed.....great...

post-326-1118748940_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mr. Wallstreetwindow reports....

 

"The best news though is that the macro picture is lining up for gold. The biggest factor that has kept gold stocks down over the past year and a half is the Federal Reserves cycle of interest rate hikes that has given strength to the dollar. There are signs that we are seeing the end of this cycle, and once the cycle ends the next bull rally in gold stocks will be in full force."

 

some see a few more times in the rate raising.... and guys like Sy Harding says the fed usually doesn't stop till 5.5%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and another snippet...

 

"The important point is that the end of the tightening cycle will have significant implications for the global markets. Since the Fed began raising interest rates in the first quarter of 2004 the XAU gold stock index has been trapped between a range of 113 and 77. Once the Fed stops raising interest rates the dollar should drop down to its long-term 80 support level and will likely break it. The monetary cap on gold will be lifted."

 

well, don't know if there are any DX bears left....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
and another snippet...

 

"The important point is that the end of the tightening cycle will have significant implications for the global markets. Since the Fed began raising interest rates in the first quarter of 2004 the XAU gold stock index has been trapped between a range of 113 and 77. Once the Fed stops raising interest rates the dollar should drop down to its long-term 80 support level and will likely break it. The monetary cap on gold will be lifted."

 

well, don't know if there are any DX bears left....

 

There are some bears left Charmin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

thanks thor, and congratulations!

seems that i was stuck on last weeks thread, wondering why no one else was posting.

a few observations:( some of which have been addressed)

there has been a shift in the gold market. dolar up, gold up. gold has broken out in euros& rands. even though we have had a good rally, bearish sentiment prevails and uncertainty. the past correction was 50% of the previous move @ 84.2. raising rates is an admission by the fed that inflation is a problem(it wasnt rising rates that killed the market in 80). @ some point the rising rates will kill the economy, then i expect the foot to go from the brake to the accelerator. i used this correction to buy gold/silver. and i increased my position on the shares. almost all in, no margin. i think the 2nd 1/2 of the year will be bullish for the pms/au/silver. dharma

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PMS Technicals continue to improve, 4 weeks of improvement now. Bullish Percent has risen from 3% to 63% and Bullish LT from 3% to 24%. Ya gotta like dem apples! (Golden Delicious?? :D )

 

Thor:

 

How do you calculate your Bullish Percent?

 

 

Thanks Bear, I'm glad you asked.

 

I'm not a P&F guy. For my Bullish Percent, I use a simple 10/20 day exp. moving average cross and base it on my 100+ US traded gold stocks. I find this faster acting and suits my purposes. For my LT bullish indicator I use a 20 day simple moving average of the RSI(14) > 50, again based on my 100+ gold stocks.

 

Thanks, Thor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NEM

 

Will gap resistance yield and lead us out of the wildernees with this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern? Will we re-test the lower trendline at 37 or so first?

 

Or is your humble reporter simply full of stool? And the black abc portends further weakness.

 

Stay tuned tomorrow.

post-1352-1118809140_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that the current confusing situation on world markets can best be summed up by the following equation:

 

ASSet/Zero=Undefined

 

where Zero is US$ and ASSet is anything else.

 

 

I have to admit I'm getting worried for the first time here about the gold rally. Maybe it's just a temporary thing. Might not hurt to ease up a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!

    Support your local Stool Board.

×
×
  • Create New...