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Charmin

Weekly Digger - June 13-17, '05

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Silver:

 

I've been bullish on the metal, despite the action of the stocks over the past month.

 

The main reason was my belief in a symmetrical triangle for Silver off the December highs.

 

A backtest of the descending upper downtrend line has, very likely. failed.

 

This portends the possibility of lower prices.

 

This is shown on chart 1.

 

Chart 2, Silver's weekly chart shows a potentially larger triangle. I'm not happy with the count as wave a certainly seems like an impulse--not an abc usually required for a triangle.

 

As the Red and Blue lower uptrend lines indicate, Silver could head lower without breaking its uptrend.

 

I'm considering hedging my long PAAS position.

 

 

Bear I think if we close under 6.80 in Silver we will see much lower prices as in a retest of 5.40 minimum. :o

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Sorry I haven't posted the last few days as have been busy. New cousins wedding in Bandung amongst other distractions for the new groom.

Continued my strategy of $costaveraging into RecoveryGoldShares. Funds available early in the month (usually dates 5-10) allowed me to buy the pullback. My approach was to buy stocks off my wish list on a 50% pullback from the May 16 low to the late May/early June high. I also unloaded 2 partial positions RANGY and GPXM (near the high). (Not because I didn't like them but because I didn't get a full position originally and now have other fish to fry.)

Anyway this led me to buy CAU, GLE, NAK, OZN, SA and a partial position in BGO which moved me back to 100% invested. I now have 19 issues with a double position in CDE and the partial in BGO. With RANGY and GPXM going back on the WATCH list that leaves 10 still on that list. However, unlikely to be adding too much over the summer due to cash constraints. Still looking to add to position with no plans as yet to sell. If we break to new lows so be it, I will continue buying and maintaining 100% position. All positions are fully paid for, margin borrowing = zero.

Physical gold amounts to 8 to 10% of net worth but this figure will go down as no plans to purchase fizz at the mo.

I did start a new model which works like this. Buying a 10% position / issue on a move to a bullish short-term stance starting on May 1, 2005. First cab off the rank was GPXM in early May and I continued until I had 15 stocks. The last was MNG which was added just before it had the big run up (early June). The model bought at the opening price the day after the switch to bullish.

Meanwhile in reality space, the ThorAss account finally went green on Friday's ramp. So the nearly 25% drubbing in April and May has been recovered. Don't really want to comment on this but just thought I'd menshun it. :mellow:

Meanwhile the 4 stock model profits leaped up last week on the RIMM decline. The other 3 stocks (VLO, NEM and KLAC) nett hardly contributed at all with NEM contributing some profits but KLAC and VLO getting whipped around a bit.

The Gold share technicals continue their modest improvement.

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Second leg up just started

post-1584-1118670537_thumb.png

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For you TCG

We are 10 euro per kilo below the highest high of the past 5 years

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For you TCG

We are 10 euro per kilo below the highest high of the past 5 years

post-1584-1118682535_thumb.jpg

post-1584-1118682584_thumb.jpg

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Bought some SSRI (margin) just over 12, as a trade. Stop under the day's low. We'll see if it'll work out. If not, its a very small loss.

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don't you find it refreshing....

 

gold up...

dollar up....

 

change of behavior....just waiting for some lasting implications...

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don't you find it refreshing....

 

gold up...

dollar up....

 

Its amazing.

 

Up almost 2% in the SSRI trade already, in just an hour. Waiting for silver to return to 7.50...

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PMS Technicals continue to improve, 4 weeks of improvement now. Bullish Percent has risen from 3% to 63% and Bullish LT from 3% to 24%. Ya gotta like dem apples! (Golden Delicious? :D )

 

Got up early today to work on my accounts. Worked out my physical holdings is a little over 8% of total. This is about where I'd like to be for now. Somehow I find having that much fizz comforting. Kinda like an insurance policy. By comparison fiat (by the end of the month) will probably be down to 2%. Debt is presently running at 0%. May at some point in the future run a margin debt position for swing trading but not while holding down a full time job.

 

Got a golden helmet (with horns)? Got a silver hammer (Maxwell)?

 

Anyway no Nuwrecks today but I see a lot of the old ones are doing well. Probably not a good time to be buying up Wrecks anyway but the 50% pullback strategy for this month working out well so far. Still no sell strategy. Probably should work on some kind of exit strategy that respects my present LT time horizon.

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Charmin's feargreed dude post made me sit up and take notice. I see some negative divergences in the Gold Indices in some indicators I follow. Since I only get one chance per day to sell I thought it prudent to sell against the double top today. I think we might go higher but don't want to assume the risk from here. Out.

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Dollar down gold down this evening, its wierd...

 

Its like gold is now acting as the inverse euro not the inverse dollar.

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Gold and Dollar:

 

Dollar may have topped.

 

Gold may be breaking out.

post-1352-1118712538_thumb.png

post-1352-1118712561_thumb.png

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Dollar down gold down this evening, its wierd...

 

Its like gold is now acting as the inverse euro not the inverse dollar.

Could this mean that Euro-based entities are now a force (or more of a force) in the gold market?

 

OldMan

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PMS Technicals continue to improve, 4 weeks of improvement now. Bullish Percent has risen from 3% to 63% and Bullish LT from 3% to 24%. Ya gotta like dem apples! (Golden Delicious?? :D )

 

Thor:

 

How do you calculate your Bullish Percent?

 

Each weekend I calculate $BPHUI -- my calculation--it doesn't exist at Stockcharts.com. I use the same methodology as the other $BP's--simply take the percentage of stocks on P & F buy signals.

 

Only 2 stocks are on "buys"--GOLD and MDG. That puts my nominal $BPHUI at 7.5%.

 

Four stocks remain on P & F "sell" signals--BGO, GSS, IAG, and KGC.

 

I use it in a totally inverse way. With only 15 stocks, that usually trend in tandem, it's an Dover Sole/overbought indicator.

 

It is also an early warning system for individual stocks.

 

A week or so ago, I commented on MDG's potentially bullish reverse symmetrical triangle and its possible megaphone bottom.

 

The other 9 stocks are neutral. CDE, GFI and GLG have "high pole warnings". This is not a "buy" signal. but a warning of a 50% retracement. It is an alert to a potential trend change.

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