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Charmin

Weekly Digger - June 13-17, '05

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Speaking of GSS.. never thought it would ever arrive to support at 2.50 but the divergences that existed for a long time are obviously showing up now..

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Friday did a good job of absorbing the supply of the prior days......

 

not unlike the other markets that have been under pressure the last two fridays....

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Speaking of GSS.. never thought it would ever arrive to support at 2.50 but the divergences that existed for a long time are obviously showing up now..

 

 

That was a strange situation. There were divergences the last buck and a half down to the bottom.

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Gold knows...

 

"The way I am playing it is by looking for leverage to a falling US dollar exchange rate. The dollar may look strong right now, but it has severe structural problems. In the end I think the dollar is going to suffer? a lot. It is just a matter of time."

 

Paul Van Eeden

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jun102005.html

 

90 huh....

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I am not seeing it here so much but there seems to be a hell of a lot of disbelief in this rally.? :D

 

From who?

 

I completely believe it. :D

 

 

From me.

 

I've believed in the metals for what seems like an eternity and so far with the exception of physical, this sector has been one fake out and disappoint after another.

 

So, color me as a disbeliever until my account turns northward from the prior years carnage. "Show me".

 

260 is a loooong ways away.

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Well Old Habits I can feel your sentiment... just think... we didn't break 160 anyway...

 

Feargreed dude..

"The XAU touched our Fibonacci Cluster Support levels, and late Friday exploded up for another 5% plus gain.

 

We don't believe this is a run-a-way gold market, just yet.

Bearish momentum divergences are now building, and it will take a close at 90.95 on June 15 to neutralize.

 

A multi-year high in the XAU weekly Call/Put ratio implies a top is in the making.

 

We see the likelihood of another pullback to the 83-85 levels."

http://www.feargreed.com

 

now wouldn't that be unusual... a run-a-way gold market

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Well  Old Habits I can feel your sentiment... just think... we didn't break 160 anyway...

 

Feargreed dude..

"The XAU touched our Fibonacci Cluster Support levels, and late Friday exploded up for another 5% plus gain.

 

We don't believe this is a run-a-way gold market, just yet.

Bearish momentum divergences are now building, and it will take a close at 90.95 on June 15 to neutralize.

 

A multi-year high in the XAU weekly Call/Put ratio implies a top is in the making.

 

We see the likelihood of another pullback to the 83-85 levels."

http://www.feargreed.com

 

now wouldn't that be unusual... a run-a-way gold market

 

Off to a good start. Gold is down 2.30. :D

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Well  Old Habits I can feel your sentiment... just think... we didn't break 160 anyway...

 

Feargreed dude..

"The XAU touched our Fibonacci Cluster Support levels, and late Friday exploded up for another 5% plus gain.

 

We don't believe this is a run-a-way gold market, just yet.

Bearish momentum divergences are now building, and it will take a close at 90.95 on June 15 to neutralize.

 

A multi-year high in the XAU weekly Call/Put ratio implies a top is in the making.

 

We see the likelihood of another pullback to the 83-85 levels."

http://www.feargreed.com

 

now wouldn't that be unusual... a run-a-way gold market

 

The put call multi year high is very telling huh? Best to watch our asses. :D

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GOLD:

 

Looking good as a trading vehicle for the next few weeks.

 

The first chart shows the decline off the 22 year high in December. There's no mistaking 5 waves down. As it's the first impulse, it is either wave A or wave 1. There's another impulse due later to complete the correction--wave C, or to lead Gold lower--wave 3.

 

But that's for later. As an aside, I've drawn a blue horizontal line on the chart to show how $428 is an attractor. I've alse drawn a blue channel to project the likely terminus of red wave C, and the completion of the correction up. Right now, it's at $450 and rising daily.

 

The second chart shows what's happened since the February 8th lows.

 

It certainly seems that we've completed waves a and b of the typical 3 wave correction that follows 5 waves down. Very short term, we've had a 12 point rally, and a 3 day pullback creating a bear flag. This could count as waves i and ii of 5 of C. Friday's powerful move may be the start of wave iii. It should correct a bit--possibly to the upper downtrend line at 423 or so. An overlap of 421.13 indicates wave ii is still in play and more complex. Overlap of 427.02 and a close above 428 would be very bullish.

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Silver:

 

I've been bullish on the metal, despite the action of the stocks over the past month.

 

The main reason was my belief in a symmetrical triangle for Silver off the December highs.

 

A backtest of the descending upper downtrend line has, very likely. failed.

 

This portends the possibility of lower prices.

 

This is shown on chart 1.

 

Chart 2, Silver's weekly chart shows a potentially larger triangle. I'm not happy with the count as wave a certainly seems like an impulse--not an abc usually required for a triangle.

 

As the Red and Blue lower uptrend lines indicate, Silver could head lower without breaking its uptrend.

 

I'm considering hedging my long PAAS position.

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PAAS:

 

This short term count says a pullback to $14.50 should be taken in stride. It wouuld simply be a natural pullback.

 

Anything much below that will destroy the ultra-short term impulse up.

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