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Charmin

Weekly Digger - June 6-10, '05

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so far hit the 50% retracement! 84.2 on the xau and hourly divergences still in place. macd all showing divergences. think we are very close to the lows. waiting for the market to turn.

bv, why an A and not a 1. tia      dharma

 

Good point. I suppose the proper labelling would be " A or 1".

 

I guess the "A" label was my unconscious bias to the corrective.

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Silver and PAAS;

 

Another day and nothing has changed except that silver backtested (and virtually every breakout will backtest). So far the backtest held.

 

PAAS bounced from just above its 50% fib level.

 

Still constructive.

 

Yep. Pullbacks were light volume pretty much across the board. It seems that we might get at least a pretty good rally or at best an explosion. I'm thinking it starts to really heat up tommorrow.

 

Call it cautiously optimistic. :)

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GOLD:

 

I hate to post a gold count. Everyone and his or her kid brother has a favoured count based on the musings of his or her favourite Guru.

 

I'm not an Elliott purist. I look to vanilla t.a. to help with patterns and I especially watch MACD to ensure that I've got the trend right. The precise count is never as important as getting the direction right.

 

The chart below is GOLD.

 

There's no dispute that the high occurred in December, 2004.

 

Likewise, there can be no dispute Gold impulsed down in 5 waves into the February lows. Impulses set the trend. They rarely live alone. Rather, they travel in pairs. With only one exception, not relevent here, you know that a correction will follow and another impuse down will occur--as either wave c or wave 3.

 

In other words, taking out the February lows is a given. Maybe next fall.

 

After an impuse down an abc correction occurs. It's either a "B" wave or wave 2.

 

No matter what, the abc requires an impulse, a corrective and an impulse.

 

The rally off the February lows looks impulsive. MACD says it's 3 waves. If so, it's an A wave and not wave 1.

 

There's a clear 3 wave decline from March to May. Very importantly, it was overlapped in June. It cannot be the bearish 3rd wave down, because wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1. The May lows must be labelled as c of B. By the way, a little bit of positive divergence on MACD helps--but it wasn't the double divergence that I want to see for a powerful reversal.

 

I think we've seen the wave B bottom in gold. I believe we've seen wave 1 of C and we're correcting in wave 2. This long term count and all the effort that went into it will be decidedly wrong--and no doubt about it-- if we breach 412.88. That's just the discipline of Elliott--(did I say I'm not an Elliott purist above?)

 

Once that correction completes, wave 3 should carry us much higher--but only to the upper blue channel line which should limit wave C's advance. It's the continuing measure of where c=a.

 

This does not preclude new highs on the HUI and XAU, which I fully expect.

post-1352-1118376608_thumb.png

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bearvest,

 

I would like to learn more about Elliot Waves. Could you recommend a good book (or a few books)? Since I am an engineer, I should not have too many problems even if the book (or books) is/are fairly technical.

I also want to take this opportunity to thank you again for all the excellent analysis you present on this board.

Many thanks!

 

OldMan

 

O.M.

 

Start right here:

http://www.elliott-wave-theory.com/elliott2.html

 

The best trader's book is Steven Poser's " Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably".

 

Prechter's " Elliott Wave Principle" is the bible. I just finished Prechter's " The Major Works of R. N. Elliott " and really enjoyed it.

 

As I say, learn the rules and pattern detection on the above website, and then buy the books. Leaping into Prechter's book without some advance knowledge will overwhelm. I bought the book in 1981 and it remained on my shelf unread for 20 years.

 

Hope this helps.

Yes, this helps.

Many thanks!

 

OldMan

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At this juncture it is safe to be long with a stop two day close under 175 HUI. Nice action in CDE. 3.17 is the 50% retrace of 2.70-3.63. Never closed it under there. 7.20 is the 50 of 6.70-7.65 in Silver and the breakout in my book. But what do I know? Today was also 7 days from the June 2nd High. Lots of time turns around here. Buy the pullback.

 

I think your blindfolded friend bought goog already

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At this juncture it is safe to be long with a stop two day close under 175 HUI. Nice action in CDE. 3.17 is the 50% retrace of 2.70-3.63. Never closed it under there. 7.20 is the 50 of 6.70-7.65 in Silver and the breakout in my book. But what do I know? Today was also 7 days from the June 2nd High. Lots of time turns around here. Buy the pullback.

 

I think your blindfolded friend bought goog already

 

under 200. :D

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A little surprised miners are hanging in so far.

 

I'm hoping that they are indicating higher metal prices, but as I type I'm watching the silver price hit 7.19, so who the hell knows. Certainly not me.

 

Of course the trade gap was "better than expected" but still rotten to the core. I've got to wonder how much longer the buck can stay up here without some kind of correction.

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http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/050608/12655.html?.v=1 this is an interview w/arch crawford. Arch: I believe gold will hit a high maybe Monday and will then drop into the summer and after that we will have a super up-move in it beginning around Labor Day and going for close to a year. Gold, oil, silver, metals, CRB Index generally. Inflation hedges are ruled by Neptune for whatever reason. I've never paid any attention to rulership they were telling me that when Saturn came up to 0 degrees Leo the price of gold would drop because Saturn is contractive and I said that's horsepuckey. Well, the day that Saturn hit Leo the IMF announced it would sell tons and tons of gold over months and months of time and it was the only limit move that year. But, it was the day Saturn hit in apparent right ascension, which is the way astronomers look at the sky, not ecliptic longitude, which is the way astrologers look at the sky. So I learned a little about rulership stuff and I said "Oh my God." Why should some rulership thing work? I don't know...

 

dharma

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with a higher dollar and gold holding....not bad..

 

GG still in trading range 14 to 14.50

 

silver spring below 7.25?

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Dollar up big, yet gold and HUI also up big! Awesome.

 

The last 6-7 days in the PM stocks was a total bull flag....now going higher.

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Dollar up big, yet gold and HUI also up big!  Awesome.

 

The last 6-7 days in the PM stocks was a total bull flag....now going higher.

 

don't often get a chance to buy with a 10 point stop loss in the HUI. I would agree we go higher from here.

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