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Charmin

Weekly Digger - Mon. 5/23 to Fri. 5/27, '05

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A short term low around June 10th would be nice...if you can manage it.

 

Thanks!? :P

 

Works for me too. Dowry check clears Thor? :D

 

Almoost! It's when I can bank all the wedding "gifts" which here in Indonesia is the cold hard folding variety!! B) Not that I'm getting married for the profits or anything but when you throw a party for 800 of your closest friends it's nice when they show their appreciation. Fortunately the booze bill will be low. :lol:

 

When anybody asks me what I think about the whole affair I'll tell them it's just like that movie... you know... MY BIG FAT BATAK WEDDING. :o

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XAU:

 

Here's the 60 minute I've been working with.

 

It sure looks like wave iv of 5 of 3 of C., even though it is disproportionately large in relation to wave ii.

 

If this count is right, a significant bottom awaits in the next few days.

post-1352-1116986250_thumb.png

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XAU:

 

Here's the 60 minute I've been working with.

 

It sure looks like wave iv of 5 of 3 of C., even though it is disproportionately large in relation to wave ii.

 

If this count is right, a significant bottom awaits in the next few days.

 

Seems right on. I will be selling the trades on a pop in the morning and adding them back on the pullback. Everything else will stay where it's been for the last two years.

I'm really hoping the miners start to lead the metal this time around, which should indicate that the "spectacular rally" is for real. So far, so good. B)

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Barbera Article:

 

Many thanks for the link to Barbera's article.

 

He and I think as one. We differ as to degree and timing.

 

Barbera's fundamental thesis is that the market will soon realize that the fed conundrum will end the rate increases. This, in turn, will choke off the dollar rally as foreigners will stop chasing attractive U.S. yields.

 

He then turns to technical indicators to evidence the turn of the worm.

 

I certainly can't challenge his A/D oscillator or his proprietary ROC Timing model.

 

But we agree that there should be rally from Dover Sole conditions. He says the bottom was last Friday. I say it's in the next few days. We both agree that April 28th was a significant technical event. I labelled it as wave iii of 5, and noted that it was the last MACD confirmation of the downtrend.

 

We both agree that a bounce should take us to 86 or so. He's looking for a gap fill, judging by his target. I'm looking for it to be gap resistance. If you look back at my daily chart, blue wave iv is at the opening of the gap. The former wave 4 of one lesser degree of trend often creates resistance.

 

Finally, Barbera suggests a successful retest in June. I suggest a "flat" that will not end at 82. Rather, I suggest a wimpy 5th wave that ends at 76 or so.

 

Thanks for the Stoolies who posted the link. There is a great community here imbued with a spirit of brotherhood and cooperative spirit rarely found on most boards.

 

It's a tribute to the example set by our leaders, and to our own unity of purpose.

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XAU:

 

Here's where things could go off the rails for my count.

 

It all depends on the open. Patterns have generally gapped at the open and traded sideways thereafter.

 

If we overlap 84.35, the count turns immediately bullish.

 

Red wave iii becomes black 5, while blue a and b could count as 1 and 2 up placing us in wave 3 of the first impulse up (the 'a' wave) of wave 4 corrective. It should also eliminate the bearish rising wedge.

 

Even on a less than daily count, there should not be MACD divergence in a 3rd wave.

post-1352-1116995601_thumb.png

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post-1744-1116998491_thumb.png

 

....was it barely one yr ago that the 50/200 crossover had many staring into the abyss?......and that somehow the funnies were funny no more?......grinchie thinks things are still damned funny......and somehow we'll all, end up making money :P

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NEM:

 

I've suggested that the silver stocks, surprisingly, have supported XAU.

 

NEM is the lead dog. It's got one helluva lot of work to do on the upside to get bullish.

 

And the technician's suggestion that the MACD crossover is the "clear sailing" sign is, simply put, fool's gold.

 

It got them in too early on the February 8th decline.

post-1352-1116999442_thumb.png

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XAU:

 

Here's where things could go off the rails for my count.

 

It all depends on the open. Patterns have generally gapped at the open and traded sideways thereafter.

 

If we overlap 84.35, the count turns immediately bullish.

 

Red wave iii becomes black 5, while blue a and b could count as 1 and 2 up placing us in wave 3 of the first impulse up (the 'a' wave) of wave 4 corrective. It should also eliminate the bearish rising wedge.

 

Even on a less than daily count, there should not be MACD divergence in a 3rd wave.

 

 

That was the info I wanted Bear thanks. That changes the count. :D

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Dumped BGO this a.m. Hopefully will get to buy it back cheaper in a few days, but you never know.

 

Where's Charmin been lately?

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"Not buying, not selling, in fact I'm going to bed."

 

General George Beauregard Custer

 

...but I can't fault those who did. Judging by EGO's performance there is selling into strength prevailing. And this morning had all the hallmarks of a pump and dump. Plus across the board selling in the broads.

Figure by the end of the day Zow should be down 2+%.

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Guest

havent figured out how to post charts, and i am lazy so i have given up! anyhow, looking @long term charts, it seems hui (on a weekly) has come down to the neckline of an inverse h&s bottom.-normal action! it can even go below the neckline by 2-3%

agree the momentum low appears to have occurred! waiting for some kind of test. i do agree, the miners should lead on the upside. they got way overdone on the downside. i dont think the dolar has much to go, in fact it could be finished on the upside. dharma

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Guest

this from merrimanWe are now entering the next huge geocosmic cluster zone, May 15-June 14. As discussed previously, there will be 18 significant geocosmic signatures unfolding during this period, in which there are no more than 6 calendar days between any two consecutive ones. The midpoint of this cluster is May 30, which means this is a three-star critical reversal date, +/- 3 trading days. Within this cluster are seven Level 1 signatures (the most powerful correlates to cycle a cycle culmination, as outlined in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles). In addition to the May 30 midpoint, there are two groupings of these Level 1 signatures. One comes up this week (May 15-19), and another June 10-14. The later will most likely deal more with interest rate vehicles, like T-Bonds and currencies. The former (this coming week, maybe early the following week) may relate more to precious metals, crude oil, and equities. http://www.mmacycles.com/artwprev.htm dharma

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Guest

Anyone comment on "First Silver (SFR)" in Canada ? Whats not to like ?

Thanks

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