Weekly Digger - Mon. 5/23 to Fri. 5/27, '05

[traderfromhell]

charms,seems the link to frank, brings one to bernie. maybe all roads lead to bernie? do you have a better link. tia dharma

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dharma go to Pups site Financial Sense and look in the left hand column for Barbera's article. Suffice to say he says if ya can't buy here ya can't buy at all.

[traderfromhell]

Well Ander maybe I'll bring you some luck. Bot some GSS today. Looks very close to a breakout.

[Guest]

Crapola.. Crapvision is going to have a special on Gold this last trading hour. "Should you own it" ? Complete with pictures of big Gold bars and all...

[Ander]

Well Ander maybe I'll bring you some luck. Bot some GSS today. Looks very close to a breakout.

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Heck yeah.

Short term, higher low, higher high. +8%.

[Ander]

Crapola..  Crapvision is going to have a special on Gold this last trading hour.  "Should you own it" ?  Complete with pictures of big Gold bars and all...

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I dont really know that that matters.

 

I remember back in 2002, with gold down in the 300 area, they had this interview with a guy telling us to buy gold. And I rememeber that at the time, I thought 'Ha, gold is stupid, it just sits there!'

[ThorAss]

Okay now THAT was a rally. Why?

 

Advancers 71

Decliners 12

Unchanged 17

 

SOLID PERFORMANCE in A/D showing broadbase.

 

BuST 19% - Big Improvement in short term bullish PMS stocks.

 

BP 9% - Less ugly!

 

BuLT GPXM,IAG,MDU,RIC,USGL - Same

 

NeWrecks: PMU

 

On a personal note my fartpolio, of beaten down train wrecks and falling knives soundly trounced the indices up 4.5% with an A/D of 12 to 1.

 

Across the board there was a more than reversal of friday's losses which is a bullish reversal.

 

PMS up, Fizz (POG & POS) down.

 

There's more but tired now. So, can I just end with ...

 

THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT!"

[Ander]

On a personal note my fartpolio, of beaten down train wrecks and falling knives soundly trounced the indices up 4.5% with an A/D of 12 to 1.

 

Hehe. Same here.

GSS, SSRI and WTZ all amazing today.

[ThorAss]

On the 4 stock model:

 

NEM went long on a break above 35.50 and the moving average followed turning up. Now a break of 36.50 could bring in some buying. This is another excellent example of a stock breaking out of near term resistance just like the break above (on the open Tues) 35.20. For a longer term perspective however (days rather than hours) $36.50 is the level to watch.

 

VLO continued its uptrend but nay need a break. This goes for KLAC as well. RIMM, went so far as to go short in the last hour on the break of $79.50 support, however the moving average is still climbing so that one has to be watched carefully.

 

A little more on the PMS:

 

Outperformers today:

 

EGO -You little beauty - Up 14.42%

DEZ - +9.35%

GSS - +8.56%

GBN - Goober Broadcasting Network - +7.59%

QEE - +5.56%

NXG - +5.31% (although my screen is showing up 32% I don't think so.)

TGB - +4.82% Potential big turnaround here for this train wreck.

GRS - +4.74% Don't have this one but I watch it. Price too high.

CDE - +4.73%

PMU - +4.55% ThorAss' turnaround Wreck'o'da'day.

[bearvest]

XAU:

 

Still too early to break out the champagne.

 

The 60 minute chart shows we're waffling around in a fourth wave of 5 of c or 3 (and, as I believe, wave 3 of C).

 

It is near completion, and wave v of 5 should complete the pattern, and complete wave 3 of C.

 

Turning to the daily, the MAY 16th low shows positive divergence on MACD. I suggest that wave v will create a second divergence, as the extension of the already extended 5th plays out. That is the buying opportunity. But it's only a swing trade, in what I believe will be wave red 4 of C on the weekly.

 

Turning to the weekly, the incomplete black C wave is only 3 waves down (and not yet complete, as stated above). It should be 5 waves.

 

Black ABC should be a 3-3-5, terminating around 76 to complete a pattern known as a flat. In other words, I'm looking for a double bottom over the next several weeks.

 

Gold should slump to $414, but XAU should be supported by Silver.

[traderfromhell]

Bear 5% downside from here hardly seems worth the concern. What would it take to invalidate the current wave count and have you change the count so that we made bottom already?

[bearvest]

Bear 5% downside from here hardly seems worth the concern. What would it take to invalidate the current wave count and have you change the count so that we made bottom already?

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Trader,

 

I can't see a bottom on any count. We may bottom sooner than later, if the Black C wave on the monthly is a 3 wave affair instead of 5.

 

The 60 minute lacks impulsiveness in the 'a' wave. I posted earlier that it looks like a rising abc.

 

I have real reservations about my daily count as a 5th wave extension of an already extended fifth. But with all that action in what I count as wave 3 on the monthly, it fits my "flat" theory. All of the downside energy is expended in wave 3 so that wave 5 is a mere whimper.

 

Why buy now rather than later? One looks for stocks that alrady have 5 waves down so that in waves 4 and 5 on the index, they are tracing out waves 1 and 2, and setting up 3. These will be the powerhouses. Right now it's a bit too early to tell.

 

To fairly answer your question, a significant overlap of 84.35, wave 1 on the 60 minute chart, would require a re-assessment of my short term count.

[bearvest]

XAU and USD:

 

USD is the mirror image of XAU.

 

We are completing wave 3 of red C or 3 up of Black C.

 

We are likely still in micro 5 of 3 up in the dollar, while XAU is in micro 5 of 3.

 

The black C wave on the dollar should be 5 waves, not 3.

[traderfromhell]

Bear 5% downside from here hardly seems worth the concern. What would it take to invalidate the current wave count and have you change the count so that we made bottom already?

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Trader,

 

I can't see a bottom on any count. We may bottom sooner than later, if the Black C wave on the monthly is a 3 wave affair instead of 5.

 

The 60 minute lacks impulsiveness in the 'a' wave. I posted earlier that it looks like a rising abc.

 

I have real reservations about my daily count as a 5th wave extension of an already extended fifth. But with all that action in what I count as wave 3 on the monthly, it fits my "flat" theory. All of the downside energy is expended in wave 3 so that wave 5 is a mere whimper.

 

Why buy now rather than later? One looks for stocks that alrady have 5 waves down so that in waves 4 and 5 on the index, they are tracing out waves 1 and 2, and setting up 3. These will be the powerhouses. Right now it's a bit too early to tell.

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I have established a minor position in a couple of stocks and am waiting to buy the bulk of my position. The two stocks I have purchased could qualify as having completed their bear move. GSS and HMY. I am curious if you have read Frank Barbera's thoughts posted at Financial Sense. Thanks for your response.

[bearvest]

I have established a minor position in a couple of stocks and am waiting to buy the bulk of my position. The two stocks I have purchased could qualify as having completed their bear move. GSS and HMY. I am curious if you have read Frank Barbera's thoughts posted at Financial Sense. Thanks for your response.

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Trader,

 

No, I haven't read Barbera.

 

As far as GSS goes. the chart since the May 10th lows does not evidence a count. There's an old saying, "If you can't count it, it's corrective".

 

CMF and MACD evidence very long term positive divergence, while Monday's spike challenges the upper band of very narrow Bollinger Bands.

 

HMY, I suggest, has shown chart strength merely because gold has fallen less than the dollar rallied over the last little while.

[bearvest]

Silver:

 

As some of you know, I have a day job as a trial lawyer.

 

This often takes me away from the markets intra-day.

 

If, as will occur this week, when my trials are out of town, I have a limited ability to post daily. So I'm trying to get it in now.

 

Here's where I think we are in silver and PAAS. It's not much different from my dollar and XAU counts.

 

Silver should rally up to 7.04 to 7.10 and possibly go sideways. Then it should crack to 6.87 or higher, but not substantially violate 6.85 (for more than 3 days if it does).

 

This puts in the 'e' wave. If so , we rally to 8.10 or so. Wave 'e' often undershoots or overshoots the rising lower trendline.

 

PAAS seemed to smell a bottom on Monday. It rose 4%, against a flat day for the underlying commodity, on low volume. Short covering?

 

I think we have one more drop in PAAS that takes out the recent low of 12.31.

 

Then, it's bonanza time.

 

A serious violation of 6.85 sets up the very bearish Prechter count of a series of 1-2's leading to a series of 3rd of 3rd's, however. I'm not in this camp.