MrHanky Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 until we break the 50 dma,they will continue to buy on dips...we need alot of bad news to keep the pressure on. we still have not had a lock limit down on the futures in ages,and when we gap down we seem to rally positive. I think it will be different now,i think they sell all rallies now.heres hopin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 17, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Pile, you are correct about those tops. The first few days when we roll over, we get those hysteria spikes which keep people from shorting and off guard. Will probably have a few more of them the next 5 days, including the famous "Gap Reversal" where broken charts are immediately fixed overnight. Same thing happened in 2001. Big gap up, then the market slowly rolled over when nobody was paying attention, and everyone was going long on the pullback... That's what gets the acceleration going when the waterfall starts. Too many longs going in on the pullback suddenly realize they are wrong. But the tide now has definitely turned. Short all spikes and gaps from now on...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 just getting caught up after another day hanging with my dad. read the PM IDS end-to-end. lot of energy here now. the fully-short sled is filling up with stoolies at a startling rate (i'm one). not to project like somebody wandering times square barefoot with sandwich boards that claim "The End of the Werld is Nie"....but: there's a very real possibility that the highs we saw earlier this week are levels we will not see again for years or decades. the market's about to fall apart. maybe it'll fall slowly for a while. maybe not. does it really matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 NEWS=NOISE The market is driven 100% by mass emotions/psychology. Multi-month sideways BMR correction is over. Mostly downhill from here. 100% sure. Well, OK, 99.9% sure :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 NazQuack is 16 points below fair value that is a 1 1/2 to 2% haircut-SPX 6 points below fair value that would put it under 908 which is the last resistance until well under 800-if it starts that way tomorrow-I'll take it! trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 recall back in the bull market how bottoms were slow to form and everyone was nervous to BUY them, then bam up it goes and you missed it again? You'd finally jump on and a scarey correction comes out of the blue, sharp and furious decline. You become burned so you are reluctant to buy the next dip. By late 90's everyone was super confident in "buying the dips". Game over. The opposite is true now. Reverse what I just said. Best strategy is to slowly short into each rally once BPI goes over 70% and begins collapsing. That is (was) now. Ride the PIG all the way down until the people like Maria on Poovision cry "uncle". Cover and go dong, I can guarantee that the BPI's will then be well under 30%, possibly as low as 10%. KA-ching. KISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 typo- last resistance until well under 900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 OUCH...Been hard at work all day but love what IM seeing now...only position changes : Bought 25000 shares WHT today at 1.01 and went 6 figure long on RYVNX via my brokers assistant. Then my broker calls and asks " what the hell are u doing? " . All I said was "be glad I didnt short MERRIL". Nuff said ...major coin over the next few weeks...remember .....HOLD YOUR WINNERS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Brian, Larry T says trading below 918 targets 906. Blow through Dec lows will cause a "MELT-DOWN". Pssst, Dec lows are eventually soon "in-the-bag", LOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 headline from crapvison.com.... Market Dispatches 4:50 PM ET Microsoft to pay dividend, plans 2-for-1 split Software giant surprises Wall Street with dividend for shareholders. After hours, IBM and eBay beat earnings estimates you notice none of the bad news was posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Well everyone is pretty excited tonight.Personally I am a bit disappointed. Still waiting for the big one to drop. I don't know if anyone has seen the size of a Great Dane's shit. But I am waiting for a TURD of that size to drop into the pool. Maybe GE? maybe. butt did you step up your game on that one? i did. will watch tomorrow's events with great interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 The 906 +- 3 points is the annual, monthly, weekly, daily and the projected low for the day. If that breaks, LOB. Larry Tomlinson Tonight. Pile, You became a subscriber? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Remember this, in bear markets tops are a "process", they unfold S-L-O-W-L-Y ! I don't thinkso Bunky.... how quickly we forget 12/2/02... Meanwhile down here at the office, the new job orders are flowing in from Silicon Valley for Semiconductor professionals... An amazing turnaround for sure. Go ahead and believe the end of the World is near... I'm just stuffin my pockets with fat fees... If my suspicion is correct, we'll have a flat to slightly up year for chips in 2003, and to these guys flat looks like Mt. Everest right now... They'll be glad to see flat, and my over-the-horizon-radar type of business says they'll get it... Enjoy the evening, but I can tell from some of the posts, that some of us are not sure the top is in just YET... I got a strange feeling that in about 90 days, I'm going to be buying these things when everyone else is walking away from em... BTW, the last time I checked, the Dow was down a whole 25 points today and the Nasdaq only 15 pts... As Mark pointed out, how many times have the bears thought they found the honey hole afterhours, only to be stung to pieces by the bees in the next day's trading... Of course, none of this ever happens during Options Expiry week... If I'm wrong, I'm still in cash, I don't have much time to watch this stuff anymore, too busy scalping heads... Even SG expects some kind of rebound tomorrow, and we all know he's NEVER wrong.... Good Luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 FM, yeah I remember I loaded up on BEARX on Dec 3, and a little more on Dec 6. It's not about being a hero and calling the precise top or about being "correct" its simply about making money :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 FM, Is it possible in your opinion that the reconstituded efforts to get this thing going is going to end within a quarter or two. What i'm trying to ask is: How do you know it will last beyond a few months, if that long? I hope you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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