Weekly Digger - Mon. 5/16- Fri. May 20, '05

[GRINCH]

....inflation/deflation "conundrum" giving grinchie fits......god bless mr. Russell for some timely clarity......

 

a good read

[bearvest]

same for XAU - 1:1 ABC down complete

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Charmin:

 

An abc is complete when an impulsive c wave completes. You are correct that the most common relationship is c=a.

 

However, as I posted erlier in this thread, this bounce is likely wave iv of 5 of c. Again, I suggested that wave v would not take us much lower due to the strength of wave iii.

 

If your software does time relationships, you'll note that the time off the March highs equals the time into the February lows.

 

I think we uncork the champagne in a couple more days.

[traderfromhell]

same for XAU - 1:1 ABC down complete

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Charmin:

 

An abc is complete when an impulsive c wave completes. You are correct that the most common relationship is c=a.

 

However, as I posted erlier in this thread, this bounce is likely wave iv of 5 of c. Again, I suggested that wave v would not take us much lower due to the strength of wave iii.

 

If your software does time relationships, you'll note that the time off the March highs equals the time into the February lows.

 

I think we uncork the champagne in a couple more days.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Different ABC's I think Bear. I think maybe 75 max downside in the XAU? Something like that?

[bearvest]

GOLD:

 

I rarely post charts on Gold itself.

 

Elliott counts are readily available elsewhere.

 

Here's the bearish count. It is a blend of Elliott, somewhat supported by the technical breach of a very longstanding trendline.

 

The count is pretty clear. The top occurred in December, 2004. You can see a patently obvious 5 wave move to the February lows as wave 1. The rally to March is an abc for wave 2. This decline is wave 3 and we're in wave ii of 3.

 

I think there's a couple of things wrong here.

 

First, MACD is strongest at the December highs. This is more consistent with it being wave 3, and this decline will resolve as wave 4. Second, MACD should be much lower if we're that advanced in iii of 3. After all, it's the tsunami subwave.

[bearvest]

Gold:

 

Here's the bullish count.

 

Bottom line is 413.90 as the likely terminus. It's where black a=c to complete tbe blue b wave.

 

Thereafter, we rally up in blue c, to complete red B.

 

This is a short term bullish count, but the longer term implications are bearish. That's for another day, however.

 

Please note the trend channel touted by the Elliott bears as wave 3. Impulses should be steep and stick within a channel. But they shouldn't overlap within that channel, as is the case here.

 

If it's a third wave, within that wave, subwave i completed at 423.90. If it's overlapped, the bears will be sent back to re-draw their short term counts.

[Tig 'Ol Bitties]

It is definitely getting interesting about now. A whole lotta doubt about the gold sector and predictions of dollar-to-the-moon abound. Bernie Schaeffer even took a poke at Buffet's short dollar position this morning.

 

Are real rates still negative? Is gold still over $400? Are intermediate and crude goods really up 7.9% & 12% annually? Is every PPI revision to the downside?

 

Too many questions, but I do always tend to like that which everyone hates when it comes to investments. Has to be worth a toss here...

[GRINCH]

 

 

(thank-you, mr. Hamilton)

 

 

....a reasonably tight correlation is now somewhat divergent (though not in trend)......so how might we close the gap?......a drop in oil? .....no, even grinchies walnut can see what the funnies say on that......a rise in gold?.....makes more sense given the fiscal madness before us.....isn't the simplest explanation usually the most likely? (Occam's razor)

 

....deflation is very real and the enemy at the gates......which will inevitably win....but till then we make money on Bernanke's helicopters....."measured" could soon be "blatant"......attempts to re-inflate.....(at least we have room to go down now) (greenie ain't that stupid)......carribean "funds" becoming buyers of last resort......new ones will appear (out of "thin air")......lest we go japanese (how many years now?)............being a "bug" (I prefer opportunist) involves ultimately betting against uncle sam (a foolish proposition)......or......understanding the same and betting on his reactions.....(a wise proposition)....(I hope)

[The CoinGuy]

BV,

 

Looks as though you've been using Microsoft Paint to correct those charts. If you click on the lower box when you bring up your text box to type in; it won't fill in the background. Also, if you click on view, then text toolbar. It will allow you to make the font any type, size, as well as color. Paint is very good for correcting charts--for what it is. Especially in the custom 200% size(View, Zoom, Custom...).

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

EDIT: Tig's always good to see u around.

 

[bearvest]

same for XAU - 1:1 ABC down complete

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Charmin:

 

An abc is complete when an impulsive c wave completes. You are correct that the most common relationship is c=a.

 

However, as I posted erlier in this thread, this bounce is likely wave iv of 5 of c. Again, I suggested that wave v would not take us much lower due to the strength of wave iii.

 

If your software does time relationships, you'll note that the time off the March highs equals the time into the February lows.

 

I think we uncork the champagne in a couple more days.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Different ABC's I think Bear. I think maybe 75 max downside in the XAU? Something like that?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Thanks for drawing the difference in timeframes to my attention, Trader.

 

Again, I'm in agreement with the likely bottom, but I still see two more waves of higher degree-a 4th and a 5th.

 

Here's the weekly since the December, 2003 top.

 

I think it's a flat correction. It's a sideways 3 wave abc pattern. The key is that wave A subdivides into 3 waves instead of 5. Wave B will take on a 3 wave pattern, and Wave C must be 5 waves.

 

Only 3 are in. The 4th should begin soon. It's the longer term bounce that I referred to in my post above. After that, we decline in wave 5, to complete C.

[Charmin]

Well Bearvest and stoolies...

 

I can't figure Elliot into any of my waves.... so I keep it simple... simple minds...

 

Ok, we have a demand line and we have a yearly support coming into play here.... We have an ABC measured move down to that area and we have what might appear to be a sot.... but we are weak and a consolidation "should" be coming in the near term and now is the time to switch into a trading range frame of mind ... if demand shows up then the likely scenario is it will be sold at the nearest resistance.... until it wears itself out - fails - or breaks out... It's all part of the Wyckoff wave...

[bearvest]

BV,

 

Looks as though you've been using Microsoft Paint to correct those charts.  If you click on the lower box when you bring up your text box to type in; it won't fill in the background.  Also, if you click on view, then text toolbar.  It will allow you to make the font any type, size, as well as color.  Paint is very good for correcting charts--for what it is.  Especially in the custom 200% size(View, Zoom, Custom...).

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

EDIT: Tig's always good to see u around.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

T.C.G.

 

Thanks. I really don't know much about computers beyond the rudiments.

 

I'll save your post and play around on the weekend.

 

That was one very pretty makeover.

[The CoinGuy]

Well Bearvest and stoolies...

 

I can't figure Elliot into any of my waves.... so I keep it simple... simple minds...

 

Ok, we have a demand line and we have a yearly support coming into play here.... We have an ABC measured move down to that area and we have what might appear to be a sot.... but we are weak and a consolidation "should" be coming in the near term and now is the time to switch into a trading range frame of mind ... if demand shows up then the likely scenario is it will be sold at the nearest resistance.... until it wears itself out - fails - or breaks out... It's all part of the Wyckoff wave...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Charmin,

 

I've always agreed with you there.

 

Simple is the Best approach...

 

Simple Hooey

 

Best,

 

TCG

[bearvest]

Charmin:

 

Different disciplines, but we think as one.

[The CoinGuy]

BV,

 

Looks as though you've been using Microsoft Paint to correct those charts.? If you click on the lower box when you bring up your text box to type in; it won't fill in the background.? Also, if you click on view, then text toolbar.? It will allow you to make the font any type, size, as well as color.?  Paint is very good for correcting charts--for what it is.? Especially in the custom 200% size(View, Zoom, Custom...).

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

EDIT: Tig's always good to see u around.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

T.C.G.

 

Thanks. I really don't know much about computers beyond the rudiments.

 

I'll save your post and play around on the weekend.

 

That was one very pretty makeover.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

BV,

 

The reason why I mentioned it is because when you're trying to get in there to "note" the sub-waves, it's a real bear to get in close with your letters when you're eating up the background of the chart. Been there, done that....thought I'd pass it along. It was a Stoolie back in 2001 who taught me that....

 

Best,

 

TCG

[GRINCH]

.....this dumbass will soon inhabit the control tower......(since he's the most confident deflation fighter)......the complete opposite of Volcker (who killed the gold price)......still licking my greasy chops....

 

 

 

dumbass chronicles.....got gold?