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Charmin

Weekly Digger - Mon. 5/16- Fri. May 20, '05

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XAU:

 

The counts remain unchanged.

 

It looks like we have 5 waves down in the extended 3rd of 5 of C or 3. Simply put, we should have a bounce for a day or two contained by 81.80--the 4th wave in the 3rd wave extension.

 

After that, the 5th micro wave will complete 5 and C. It should be late this week or early next.

 

MACD divergence to price is consistent with my theory that, on the daily chart, maximum MACD weakness will occur at a 3rd wave, and in an extended wave at the 3rd wave of the extension ( i.e. the iii of 3 or the iii of 5 ).

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81.80 doesn't seem like much of a bounce Bearvest, but I got to respect your work, you've been on a bit of a roll since late last year.

 

I'm hoping for a little sharper rally, but hope stinks eternal.

 

There are a few things that may be gold positive short term. COT figures probably being the most important. Net outflows of Asian investment being anti-dollar.

 

The other thing I find myself hoping for these days is the "shaking of the tree" theory by whoever has the money to shake them.

If that is the case these guys are the masters, because this has been one gut - wrenching selloff. ;)

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81.80 doesn't seem like much of a bounce Bearvest, but I got to respect your work, you've been on a bit of a roll since late last year.

 

I'm hoping for a little sharper rally, but hope stinks eternal.

 

There are a few things that may be gold positive short term. COT figures probably being the most important. Net outflows of Asian investment being anti-dollar.

 

The other thing I find myself hoping for these days is the "shaking of the tree" theory by whoever has the money to shake them.

If that is the case these guys are the masters, because this has been one gut - wrenching selloff. ;)

 

Way I read Bearvest is a quick pop and drop and then a nice rally. This looks like the place to take the shot. Gold is up tonite.

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=MACD divergence to price is consistent with my theory that, on the daily chart, maximum MACD weakness will occur at a 3rd wave, and in an extended wave at the 3rd wave of the extension ( i.e. the iii of 3 or the iii of 5 ).

 

 

Bear, if you want my 2 cents on your theory , I have been working with MACD quite extensively and have been noticing the same thing that the big macd TURNS occur at the end of the 3rd wave . Your putting it in writing triggered the awareness , of what I was seeing but not fully registering . Thanks :D

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Habits:

 

The bounce comes next week, in my humble opinion.

 

My count has us tracing out very small one or two day waves, with one up and one down left.

 

When these last 2 mini waves complete, we'll correct the decline from the March highs. It should take us up to the breakaway gap which may, once again, be resistance.

 

If you look at the daily chart, you'll see 3 waves down. I've marked the A and B waves in black. We're days away from Black C.

 

It is this rally, which will take up all of next week and more that must be watched.

 

If you scroll back through my posts you'll find that I believe that the 3 wave move on the dailies will expand to 5 waves, but that the lows will not be much lower than current levels.

 

For myself, I'm flat the miners. The NAZ pigs that fly are far more interesting. I've been long SMH. Like Thor, it's an interesting distraction. And while I'm at it, although our trading strategies differ radically, Thor, my unknowing mentor, showed me that excellence existed. I've tried to ascribe to that excellence, though I know that I'll never have his power of analysis. But I think that in my discipline, Elliott, I can give the best that I've got.

 

I believe that next week's correction up is tradeable (though Elliott strategy says never trade 4th waves, (if this will be the 4th of 5)).

 

Hope this helps.

 

If not, simply p-mail me, and I'll try to clarify my count in the evening.

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=MACD divergence to price is consistent with my theory that, on the daily chart, maximum MACD weakness will occur at a 3rd wave, and in an extended wave at the 3rd wave of the extension ( i.e. the iii of 3 or the iii of 5 ).

 

 

Bear, if you want my 2 cents on your theory , I have been working with MACD quite extensively and have been noticing the same thing that the big macd TURNS occur at the end of the 3rd wave . Your putting it in writing triggered the awareness , of what I was seeing but not fully registering . Thanks :D

 

Vital:

 

Quite frankly, MACD coupled with the count, works quite nicely.

 

Last February, everyone was way too early trading on the extended MACD divergence. I got bullish in early February, while the crowd was calling bottoms in mid- January.

 

The chart seems to have a similar pattern.

post-1352-1116306159_thumb.png

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Silver:

 

Some reason to be guarded here.

 

Is the breach of the lower trendline a mere overshoot, or is it the start of wave 3 iin a long decline

post-1352-1116310975_thumb.png

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1:1 a-b-c complete off the 12/31/04 low.

 

Peso 1

 

Short Term Chart - 2:1 a-b-c complete.

 

Peso 2

 

I had a target price of 87.37 for the top of this move, with formidable neckline res @ 87. We are/should see a short term rev right here.

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

P.S. Ageka, if you have a current "Euro Spot Price Chart" not in Kilos, I'd be appreciative if you could pass it along...as large as possible.

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1:1 a-b-c complete off the 12/31/04 low.

 

Peso 1

 

Short Term Chart - 2:1 a-b-c complete.

 

Peso 2

 

I had a target price of 87.37 for the top of this move, with formidable neckline res @ 87.  We are/should see a short term rev right here. 

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

P.S.  Ageka, if you have a current "Euro Spot Price Chart" not in Kilos, I'd be appreciative if you could pass it along...as large as possible.

 

 

I don't think the $ rally is over yet so I am having a very hard time committing to the miners and the metals here is a large way. Silver for the moment looks stronger than Gold but if that trendline breaks it's over for a while. Safe.

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My own daily Krugerrand log scale

post-1584-1116327292_thumb.jpg

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Habits:

 

The bounce comes next week, in my humble opinion.

 

My count has us tracing out very small one or two day waves, with one up and one down left.

 

When these last 2 mini waves complete, we'll correct the decline from the March highs. It should take us up to the breakaway gap which may, once again, be resistance.

 

If you look at the daily chart, you'll see 3 waves down. I've marked the A and B waves in black. We're days away from Black C.

 

It is this rally, which will take up all of next week and more that must be watched.

 

If you scroll back through my posts you'll find that I believe that the 3 wave move on the dailies will expand to 5 waves, but that the lows will not be much lower than current levels.

 

For myself, I'm flat the miners. The NAZ pigs that fly are far more interesting. I've been long SMH. Like Thor, it's an interesting distraction. And while I'm at it, although our trading strategies differ radically, Thor, my unknowing mentor, showed me that excellence existed. I've tried to ascribe to that excellence, though I know that I'll never have his power of analysis. But I think that in my discipline, Elliott, I can give the best that I've got.

 

I believe that next week's correction up is tradeable (though Elliott strategy says never trade 4th waves, (if this will be the 4th of 5)).

 

Hope this helps.

 

If not, simply p-mail me, and I'll try to clarify my count in the evening.

 

Hah, I'm actually blushing! I only wish it were all true. B4 I noticed the good stuff I was going to comment that I switched from SMH to KLAC as it exhibited better trade parameters. I moved on to RIMM but watched SMH, KLAC, VLO and NEM as well. RIMM was the best with VLO a close second on much less volume.

My main problem in trading is psychological. But that's my discipline problem.

 

Anyway...

 

Yesterday was a strange session and I feel the worst that I've sat thru in my short time long the miners here. I was watching NEM for a daytrade but it was a nowhere trade. NEM seemed to be capped at 35.20. Check out an intra-day chart. This is either good or bad. Hard to say. We are in an excellent place for a turn. The "ice" LT for the Zow is just below in the 75-77 area. Using sub 75 as a stop (-5%), buying miners offers quite good risk-reward here. Still not my system to buy pullbacks to support, but to buy breakouts. Pullbacks show weakness while breakouts show strength. Right now the miners are as weak as ....

 

...well as weak as this:

 

Advancers 20

Decliners 66

Unchanged 14

 

Bullish Short Term KMKCF SRFDF

Bullish Long Term 8%

%Bullish 4%

 

New Recommendations: None.

 

Anyway don't kid yourself BearVest you have nothing to learn from me. Your Elliott Wave analysis is as good as any I've seen and quite readable compared to most. I never miss reading your posts when I'm here.

Thanks for the TA.

 

What do I expect? Not much. Anything could happen from smackdown to rocket launch. I think though that there will be jolly sellers into any strength. But they can probably afford to wait a day or 2 to see how high it goes. Their selling into strength should dissolve it and hopefully giving us a higher low and a sustained rally. But there is still that nagging 8 year cycle.

 

On cycles and stuff I think it was Jackie Chan who just floated an article comparing the 4 year PMS rally to the last 4 years of the Nasdaq rally. I didn't twig right away what the problem was but it is obviously. The last 4 years of the dog was at the tail end of a 20 year bull market not at the end of a 20 year bear market. If it was a 20 year bear market that ended at the start of the millenium (for gold) then we must perforce have 15+ years to run. The pullbacks on the 8 year could still be extreme or could be more in the way of flats. But the rallies should all be to new highs. The thing to not is that Chan is comparing the blow-off mania stage of the Dog to the stealth bull stage of Gold. Gives you an idea of just how high the miners could go in a real mania. Hope I live long enough to live it.

This is all assuming the main assumption, that gold is and has been in a gold bull for over 4 years now. This is not confirmed and we can only be sure (I mean really sure) after the fact. For now I'm happy to be modestly long and wait for the second stage booster to start to kick in to give that feeling of G-force. B)

If it don't happen, well I guess I own a lot of worthless gold stocks. :(

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Habits:

 

On cycles and stuff I think it was Jackie Chan who just floated an article comparing the 4 year PMS rally to the last 4 years of the Nasdaq rally. I didn't twig right away what the problem was but it is obviously. The last 4 years of the dog was at the tail end of a 20 year bull market not at the end of a 20 year bear market. If it was a 20 year bear market that ended at the start of the millenium (for gold) then we must perforce have 15+ years to run. The pullbacks on the 8 year could still be extreme or could be more in the way of flats. But the rallies should all be to new highs. The thing to not is that Chan is comparing the blow-off mania stage of the Dog to the stealth bull stage of Gold. Gives you an idea of just how high the miners could go in a real mania. Hope I live long enough to live it.

This is all assuming the main assumption, that gold is and has been in a gold bull for over 4 years now. This is not confirmed and we can only be sure (I mean really sure) after the fact. For now I'm happy to be modestly long and wait for the second stage booster to start to kick in to give that feeling of G-force. B)

If it don't happen, well I guess I own a lot of worthless gold stocks. :(

 

I'm With you on that Thor.

 

We will know the Gold Bull is peaking when Henry Blodget is promoting Gold stocks , that all the Crapvision hypters are broadcasting their bullish views on Commodities including Gold unlike the last 4 years where they would have been been strung up by their willies by the mere mention from their execs. Also when the Dow 30 has at least 1 gold component , and the major indices have a 20% weighting in commodity related stocks , then we will be at the blow off . Until then , we have many years ahead of us to play this .

 

By the way SWIR was my play over the last 2 weeks , kept me away from looking at Gold too early . Exited all yesterday Afternoon and now sitting on cash looking for the next BAR-Goon . Own a bit of Goldcorp since Friday as a starter position but am chopping at the bit in this sector. My spider senses haven't been this active since the 2001 lows . Got to be getting close. Looks like hedge funds and institutions are going to go for blood in this sector as we end May to see just how far they can take the XAU down. If at any time i see panic, and I am backing up the truck with everthing I have . Should be a good Summer , or should I say a GOLDEN summer :P

 

 

Still the best Gold site around , thanks Charmin

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Habits:

 

On cycles and stuff I think it was Jackie Chan who just floated an article comparing the 4 year PMS rally to the last 4 years of the Nasdaq rally. I didn't twig right away what the problem was but it is obviously. The last 4 years of the dog was at the tail end of a 20 year bull market not at the end of a 20 year bear market. If it was a 20 year bear market that ended at the start of the millenium (for gold) then we must perforce have 15+ years to run. The pullbacks on the 8 year could still be extreme or could be more in the way of flats. But the rallies should all be to new highs. The thing to not is that Chan is comparing the blow-off mania stage of the Dog to the stealth bull stage of Gold. Gives you an idea of just how high the miners could go in a real mania. Hope I live long enough to live it.

This is all assuming the main assumption, that gold is and has been in a gold bull for over 4 years now. This is not confirmed and we can only be sure (I mean really sure) after the fact. For now I'm happy to be modestly long and wait for the second stage booster to start to kick in to give that feeling of G-force. B)

If it don't happen, well I guess I own a lot of worthless gold stocks. :(

 

I'm With you on that Thor.

 

We will know the Gold Bull is peaking when Henry Blodget is promoting Gold stocks , that all the Crapvision hypters are broadcasting their bullish views on Commodities including Gold unlike the last 4 years where they would have been been strung up by their willies by the mere mention from their execs. Also when the Dow 30 has at least 1 gold component , and the major indices have a 20% weighting in commodity related stocks , then we will be at the blow off . Until then , we have many years ahead of us to play this .

 

By the way SWIR was my play over the last 2 weeks , kept me away from looking at Gold too early . Exited all yesterday Afternoon and now sitting on cash looking for the next BAR-Goon . Own a bit of Goldcorp since Friday as a starter position but am chopping at the bit in this sector. My spider senses haven't been this active since the 2001 lows . Got to be getting close. Looks like hedge funds and institutions are going to go for blood in this sector as we end May to see just how far they can take the XAU down. If at any time i see panic, and I am backing up the truck with everthing I have . Should be a good Summer , or should I say a GOLDEN summer :P

 

 

Still the best Gold site around , thanks Charmin

 

You'll be welcome aboard Vital. I'm sure we can find you a seat in 1st crash.

 

Ole Henry eh? I thought Flogit was in gaol. :P

 

I'm waiting for the multiple articles and ads extolling the gains available in penny gold stocks. :lol:

Anyway, if we assume that it's the funnies and the institootshuns who are doing the selling divesting themselves of their PMS holdings then when the turn comes it will likely be these same ones they buy. I sifting for bargains amongst the flotsam and jetsam. Goldcorp is a great stock.

 

All ABOARD!!!

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