traderfromhell Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 Oh and I daydonged NEM today but since I need my beauty sleep I closed it already for a modprof. This was also against the trend as both NEM and the Zow remain in weak downtrends in my model which uses 65 min candles and 10 period WMAs to give you the timeframe. I suppose everyone has noticed the extreme similarities between this and last years decline. Same time of year, starting and (hopefully) finishing at similar levels. Both have featured 4 (hopefully) waterfall declines. This slump has chewed up twice as much time however, 12 weeks vs 6 roughly. I'm willing to believe ole Bernie FG Guy, and we are close to a low in time and price. He is saying next week. Well okay with me but frankly I'd prefer a few more weeks of sideways. Oh and I'm getting married on the 4th of June in case I forgot to menshun it. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Congrats and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 thor, good luck and happiness! peace! dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 i am an olde futures trader. picking bottoms and tops are part of the biz. the difference is when trading futures, your stops are really tight. in this buy and hold game. i try to accummulate and hold. frankly, sometimes i wonder why i bother. i just dont have the wherewithall to be glued to the screen as i did when trading futures. sitting at the edge of my seat. its fine when young. when middle age sets in, seems like a giant hassle and waste of energy. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 this am, so far, gold made new lows, BUTT the xau/hui have not. divergence. i am and have been using the same count as bv. and i fully expect new lows in the xau/hui, or at best to be tested. what i am looking for is the momo divergences to hold. thus putting in a good bottom. if that occurs then i will go all in. this should happen within the next week. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Dharma when gold bottomed at 410 Feb 7th the HUI bottomed at 190. i don't buy the bottom in here 165 or so. Two day close over 175 might change my mind. Lower highs lower lows in the miners. Don't know. I would like to see capitulation soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 i am an olde futures trader. picking bottoms and tops are part of the biz. the difference is when trading futures, your stops are really tight. in this buy and hold game. i try to accummulate and hold. frankly, sometimes i wonder why i bother. i just dont have the wherewithall to be glued to the screen as i did when trading futures. sitting at the edge of my seat. its fine when young. when middle age sets in, seems like a giant hassle and waste of energy. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> At least you've had a plan and stuck with it. You've been saying for a long time now where you thought you'd get in and you've had the patience to wait for it to get there. If you don't try and pick a bottom, will it ever feel comfortable buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vitalsigns Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 Well I dipped into the Gold POol this afternoon . Picked up some CBJ.TO, CTQ.TO and BGO.TO This is based on my cycle down culminating and had been focused on May 20th since March as a likely area. We are here now and downside is still possible but % decline from here should be minimal if any . Have a good weekend . By the Way Gold corp is strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 Hey TFH, GSS just refusing to go down and make a lower low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 Hey TFH, GSS just refusing to go down and make a lower low. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Buy more Ander. Consider HMY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted May 20, 2005 Report Share Posted May 20, 2005 Buy more Ander. Consider HMY too. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> lol, when did that change take place? HMY I am considering...so beaten down. Sadly, I dont have much cash now. Cause I've just been dollar cost averaging the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted May 21, 2005 Report Share Posted May 21, 2005 Well the COT figures are looking rather promising and unless I am misreading them, the commercials are setting up the specs for a beating. Then again it would be just my luck if they changed the rules of the game after I started paying attention to the reports. http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxlf.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted May 21, 2005 Report Share Posted May 21, 2005 this am, so far, gold made new lows, BUTT the xau/hui have not. divergence. i am and have been using the same count as bv. and i fully expect new lows in the xau/hui, or at best to be tested. what i am looking for is the momo divergences to hold. thus putting in a good bottom.? if that occurs then i will go all in.? this should happen within the next week. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Funny, I was just about to post that Bearvests' charts/predictions seem to be the way it is playing out, so far anyway. This could be far worse today than it is. Then again, it's been so bad already I've come to expect things to collapse just about everyday. I wonder how long they can keep shaking the tree without at least some sort of meaningful bounce? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Ya, it's like, "My account only fell 0.5% today, let's break out the champers." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted May 21, 2005 Report Share Posted May 21, 2005 But actually my account didn't fall 0.5%, more like 0.1%. So maybe I'll break out a warm beer or a $2 bottle of wine. Still with the Zow off more than a 1%, and hope for the future .... Technicals: Advancers 28 Decliners 55 Unchanged 17 So decs still beat advs 2 to 1. Short Term Bullish GSS,IAG,MKBY,USGL Note: Short Term Bullish hasn't been much help of late as peoples continue to sell/short into strength. That too will end. Long Term Bullish GPXM,IAG,MDU,RIC Note: These above are the capital preserving stocks which one may want to be in now for fears of missing a big pop up in the PMS. But on a flip to an solid uptrend I'd want to be gravitating my holdings towards the Zogs of the Zow. (Or worse). Some hosehold names that might be considered are GBN,DEZ,EGO,NXG,TGB,CAU,AGT,DROOY,PMU,MNG as well as CLG,MRB,MFN,NTO and OZN. I don't think there will any need to buy the 'F' stocks up front. For some their time will come and so will the volume. %Bullish 8% - Remains on the Phyllis Diller side of ugly. New Wrecks: NADA,NONE,ZERO,ZIP and DICK Personal Opinion: A rousing cheer for MrSpanky's FCS 'cause the little battler is trying to flip to long. I think in the future I'll at least consider waiting to purchase until it does. A late surge in the PMS stocks Fryday turned what started out looking bad with the totally unexpected (ya right!) smackdown in the fizzes off the opening. This then turned into a lacklustre day with selling into rallies. By the end with the late rally and a small NEM daydong I nearly broke even which is alright with the PMS indices off about a %. (Where's that warm beer.) Anyway days like today usually lead to a day or 2 of strength. If that does happen maybe we can break the pattern on the dailies which suggests another waterfall drop from here of another 10% or so. One possible trading strategy for the conservative (aka smart) is to wait for a break above 176 (new weekly high) next week. Go for late in the day to buy so you are less likely to get whipped. Could also do this with the 20 dEMA as well maybe just above 176. Last Gasp: 10 and 20 monthEMAs on the Hooey are likely to roll over next month which will be the first time since the Bull began. This is not a good sign LT. However, looking at the weeklies is slightly more encouraging. We have had 4 distinct cycles since the bull began which have lasted (low to low) 53 weeks, 68 weeks and 61 weeks. Our current cycle is now 53 weeks old so hey we are due for a 6 month rally. The nature of the rally will probably define the fate of the PMS at least until the end of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted May 21, 2005 Report Share Posted May 21, 2005 Dollar: Appears to be completing an impulse up. The waves have been 3 wave patterns. If this holds true, the dollar could see a nasty decline. If this C wave turns into a 5 wave affair, gold and silver are headed much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted May 21, 2005 Report Share Posted May 21, 2005 Dollar: Appears to be completing an impulse up. The waves have been 3 wave patterns. If this holds true, the dollar could see a nasty decline. If this C wave turns into a 5 wave affair, gold and silver are headed much lower. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> From the looks of these two candles Bear I can't get too Dollar bearish at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearvest Posted May 21, 2005 Report Share Posted May 21, 2005 Silver: There are two counts, either of which says the next move will be sharp and swift. The Bullish count, which I've favoured, shows a triangle pattern. We should bounce off "e" to retrace the entire decline. The bearish count shows a series of 1-2's, setting the stage for a series of 3rd of 3rd's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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