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we have to watch out for a possible option week jam starting tomorrow

 

if they start that crap again this month, I'm not gonna sit this one out

 

I'm gonna jump in long right along with the baSSturds ())())?tm? :lol:

 

and ride it all the way up thru the scripted 4:15 scalded dog runoff next Friday

 

then reverse and hold short again

 

crap I hate this crap and I hope we'll just crap out and head down the crapper tomorrow morning but if they start their usual crap again.... :angry:

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NO, they actually think they are going to get paid. But the truth is that they won't. Last years ARM borrowers are facing payment shock NOW. Foreclosure rates are skyrocketing as one year ARM borrowers get hit with the double whammy of higher loan payments and higher taxes.

 

In places like Florida, the problem is made worse by rising post hurricane insurance rates, and the Save Our Homes initiative, which is like California's Prop 13. I've been in my home for 13 years. Since Save Our Homes was enacted some years ago, RE assessments were capped at 3% per year. My assessment is half what the house sold for. My buyer faces a tax increase of 100% in the next year. This is happening all over the state.

 

The crunch is here. It starts now as a trickle, and will grow into a river of distress over the next 24 months.

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Hmmmmm......

 

so turns out that the home bubble, indirectly, is resulting in maSSive property tax "revenue" increases as the Homes are flipped to new Owners

 

I wonder if gov't planned it that way

 

eager Home buyers desperate to get in on the pyramid scheme, willing to cough up heavy taxes without a struggle

 

brilliant

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ONXX started the day in the red then finished higher - like a lot of stocks, but they got some help from TheStreet.com who posted an article called "Unsung Onyx Could Be ASCO Hero" shortly after 1. Now Cramer follows it up with a buy rec on his show. That's second hand info from the Yahoo board, but seems accurate given the timing of the 1+ rise after hours with no other news.

 

TheStreet article is not free so i haven't seen it and i can't bring myself to watch Cramer, but i wonder if they mentioned the risk that PFE's drug will show superior efficacy when they both present their latest results at ASCO? not saying i expect that, but it's a substantial risk new investors should be aware of.

 

in any case, quite the pump operation they have going.

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if they do start an option scam week jam tomorrow I think I'll play it with long calls in case a news-related gooosus-interruptus arrives in one of the overnight sessions, don't want to be caught on the wrong side of a 1,000-point Downer

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Hmmmmm......

 

so turns out that the home bubble, indirectly, is resulting in maSSive property tax "revenue" increases as the Homes are flipped to new Owners

 

I wonder if gov't planned it that way

 

eager Home buyers desperate to get in on the pyramid scheme, willing to cough up heavy taxes without a struggle

 

brilliant

SFSOS.ORG

 

"The City Controller's office has released a report counting $106.5 million in real estate transfer taxes, $43 million beyond what anal cysts had forecast. According to Controller Ed Harrington, this is the highest take ever. And why wouldn't it be, with median home prices spiking nearly 27% to $710,000? San Francisco homeowners are cashing in, yet apparently not to the demand of people who still want to buy a home and live here."

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if they do start an option scam week jam tomorrow I think I'll play it with long calls in case a news-related gooosus-interruptus arrives in one of the overnight sessions, don't want to be caught on the wrong side of a 1,000-point Downer

 

Shorty, I'm gonna tune in tomorrow AM to see if you do go long. It will be worth interrupting my beauty rest for.

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Thanks for opening for me, Greg.

 

I'm not on a sabbatical.

 

Work is just getting too busy.  Out all day doing property inspections on commercial buildings.  Market is booming here, everything is on fire.  People paying outrageous prices for properties.

 

Said there was a "voracious appetite" for stable, fixed payment streams, secured by SoCal real estate.

 

So we have been bombarded with loan requests to lock in long term fixed rates at the most absurdly low interest rates.

 

The market is just unbelievable.  Guys are paying a fortune for buildings, since there is so much 1031 exchange dollars chasing deals........

 

 

granted, prices are being driven by 1031-exchanges, but the activity is not off of the charts, not universally anyway; it may be screaming at you bank, but it is not industry wide. when we say prices are driven by "exchanges" what we are saying is that govt intervention (tax laws) in real estate market is disrupting normal buyer-seller interaction & price equilibrium.

 

the past few weeks i was really busy, then deals cancelled & others put on hold. good news is that there is no oversupply, but loan activity at my clients has dramtically slowed since beginning of 2005. ive been through this before and one day you just wake-up and the buyers are sitting on their hands. i remember late- 1989, i felt elated like it was never going to end - then by april 1990 i realized that Summer 1989 was probably the top. as i see it, we are 4 months so far into the "change"; i usually allow 6-9 months for slow appraisal activity to work its way through the system. biz has been lurching and dying... lots of rush jobs, with a big increase in the number of deals getting cancelled or put on hold. a frenzy and then a lull, like a druken sailor at a whore house. this is not indicative of a bottom or normal market. only one appraisal shop i know is really screaming & they have a rep for hitting numbers & being the low-cost provider. i do most apts & small commercial, so maybe im only seeing a part of the story, but i call around and things dont seem quite right... Satan talks & everyone rushes to the bank to lock in low rates - that seems to be the energy behind the pushes when they come. ive also noticed that buyers are demanding more from sellers, although i cant say sellers are reflecting any weakness - so in some cases, they just cancel the deal and move on, or the Realtors take haircuts!

 

think in tems of the market - do you buy parabolic moves, or do you identify it for what it "probably" is and wait? buyers/borrowers are shaky... properties are skanky. turn-around times are getting compressed as everyone wants deals to close; the longer they are under contract the more problems that arise.

 

we are thinking of re'fing and building for "cash" on a property we own F&C and leveraging a bit. we could build for cash, so if there were troubles, id just pay the loan off. if i allow 6 months for planning & approvals, maybe construction costs will have come back to earth?

 

and as to the voracious appetite for Socal debt... i can remember when NO ONE (and i mean almost NO ONE) would lend on san diego apts when they were selling for $20,000 to $25,000 door. follow the herd, but dont forget to turn before the cliff :rolleyes:

 

having said that, i will fess up to the fact that i called a top over 2 years ago & i pretty much sold out last summer, so maybe im just to conservative in my old age.

 

good luck windy, you are smart to make hay while the sun shines.

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In places like Florida, the problem is made worse by rising post hurricane insurance rates, and the Save Our Homes initiative, which is like California's Prop 13.  I've been in my home for 13 years.  Since Save Our Homes was enacted some years ago, RE assessments were capped at 3% per year. My assessment is half what the house sold for. My buyer faces a tax increase of 100% in the next year.  This is happening all over the state.

 

 

we sold a place & were aying $3,500 in property taxes. the buyer will be paying $10,000+ in property taxes. potential gross income on this little jewel was $35,000/year (thats gross). property taxes at 30% of income; how the heck does that work. godd luck to 'em, i hope they have made money since last summer. at least it wont be boring, the restaurant across the alley specilaizes in cooking fish :rolleyes:

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a few reason why the RE bubble will burst (excluding rising "long-term" interest rates).

 

sheeple have to pay for increasing...

 

i) cost of houses (yes i know its a bit obvious).

this will drive out the 1st time buyers needed to support the market.

 

ii) credit card debt (short term interest rates).

 

iii) gas prices.

 

iv) the inevible tax hikes needed to;

a ) reduce the current account deficit

b ) pay for the booming aging population

c ) wage more wars.

 

iv) INFLATION rising faster than incomes.

 

---------------

 

feel welcome to add to the list....

post-2165-1115855237_thumb.jpg

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Thanks for opening for me, Greg.

 

I'm not on a sabbatical.

 

Work is just getting too busy.? Out all day doing property inspections on commercial buildings.? Market is booming here, everything is on fire.? People paying outrageous prices for properties.

 

Said there was a "voracious appetite" for stable, fixed payment streams, secured by SoCal real estate.

 

So we have been bombarded with loan requests to lock in long term fixed rates at the most absurdly low interest rates.

 

The market is just unbelievable.? Guys are paying a fortune for buildings, since there is so much 1031 exchange dollars chasing deals........

 

 

granted, prices are being driven by 1031-exchanges, but the activity is not off of the charts, not universally anyway; it may be screaming at you bank, but it is not industry wide. when we say prices are driven by "exchanges" what we are saying is that govt intervention (tax laws) in real estate market is disrupting normal buyer-seller interaction & price equilibrium.

 

the past few weeks i was really busy, then deals cancelled & others put on hold. good news is that there is no oversupply, but loan activity at my clients has dramtically slowed since beginning of 2005. ive been through this before and one day you just wake-up and the buyers are sitting on their hands. i remember late- 1989, i felt elated like it was never going to end - then by april 1990 i realized that Summer 1989 was probably the top. as i see it, we are 4 months so far into the "change"; i usually allow 6-9 months for slow appraisal activity to work its way through the system. biz has been lurching and dying... lots of rush jobs, with a big increase in the number of deals getting cancelled or put on hold. a frenzy and then a lull, like a druken sailor at a whore house. this is not indicative of a bottom or normal market. only one appraisal shop i know is really screaming & they have a rep for hitting numbers & being the low-cost provider. i do most apts & small commercial, so maybe im only seeing a part of the story, but i call around and things dont seem quite right... Satan talks & everyone rushes to the bank to lock in low rates - that seems to be the energy behind the pushes when they come. ive also noticed that buyers are demanding more from sellers, although i cant say sellers are reflecting any weakness - so in some cases, they just cancel the deal and move on, or the Realtors take haircuts!

 

think in tems of the market - do you buy parabolic moves, or do you identify it for what it "probably" is and wait? buyers/borrowers are shaky... properties are skanky. turn-around times are getting compressed as everyone wants deals to close; the longer they are under contract the more problems that arise.

 

we are thinking of re'fing and building for "cash" on a property we own F&C and leveraging a bit. we could build for cash, so if there were troubles, id just pay the loan off. if i allow 6 months for planning & approvals, maybe construction costs will have come back to earth?

 

and as to the voracious appetite for Socal debt... i can remember when NO ONE (and i mean almost NO ONE) would lend on san diego apts when they were selling for $20,000 to $25,000 door. follow the herd, but dont forget to turn before the cliff :rolleyes:

 

having said that, i will fess up to the fact that i called a top over 2 years ago & i pretty much sold out last summer, so maybe im just to conservative in my old age.

 

good luck windy, you are smart to make hay while the sun shines.

 

 

Good to hear from you PB, Don't forget it is better to be early than late.

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Good stuff PEE. Pretty much what I'm seeing on the Westside. More importantly, as you implied, it feels like the market crested a couple months back. Many of the same listings have been on the market for weeks. The only thing that's keeping prices stable is lack of supply, IMHO.

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