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Charmin

Daily Digger - Mon. 5/9 to Fri. 5/13, '05

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Charm - I can't trade period.

 

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

 

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".

  "Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best. :)

 

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

 

you have to trade the timeframe you want - if daily you need to trade the daily support resistance, but also keep in mind what the weekly and monthly are doing.... daily cause can get used up fairly quickly... but the smaller time frames on hourly 60min charts can give clues about daily turns - even larger turns

 

Nothing works all the time. I took down another position in USEG at 3.80 risking to the double bottom of 3.70. I quite naturally took myself out at 3.66. Stock went to 3.50 and the sob made a high today at 4.30. It ain't easy. :D

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I think you traders might have a tradeable bounce here up to HUI 200, Friday was the clue.

Then maybe we get Dharmas "one more low" but not lower than 180.

 

I can be as wrong as anyone else.

 

Looking for the $ rally to end very soon, either that or we trade in this range of 82.50 to 85 for a couple more months. Then resumption of downtrend.

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OH,

 

Again kinda sorta hafta disagree wit ya on the breakout thing. BUT and it is a big butt it is all in how you define breakout. And how to know when you are wrong and get out (or reverse). When the support doesn't hold it can be very profitable and the same when resistance breaks. If the breakout has nearby support then the risk reward is there. The best breakouts are often early ones. No need to wait for new 52 week highs to call it a breakout. It's a breakout if you pass any area that has stopped you recently.

I just had a look at KRY and indeed it is holding up well during a period of falling prices. Difficult one for the traders who work like me but have a look at the cycles for those of that ilk. Last 3 months nearly perfect monthly symmetry. Up into the mid-month then down into month-end over and over. Scary!

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Charm - I can't trade period.

 

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

 

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".

? "Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best. :)

?

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

 

you have to trade the timeframe you want - if daily you need to trade the daily support resistance, but also keep in mind what the weekly and monthly are doing.... daily cause can get used up fairly quickly... but the smaller time frames on hourly 60min charts can give clues about daily turns - even larger turns

 

Nothing works all the time. I took down another position in USEG at 3.80 risking to the double bottom of 3.70. I quite naturally took myself out at 3.66. Stock went to 3.50 and the sob made a high today at 4.30. It ain't easy. :D

 

The market is one good way to loose money ain't it...

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and yes, stops are a good way to get taken out - the big boys can see em plainly....

 

they got to be far enough away....

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Charm - I can't trade period.

 

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

 

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".

  "Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best. :)

 

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

 

you have to trade the timeframe you want - if daily you need to trade the daily support resistance, but also keep in mind what the weekly and monthly are doing.... daily cause can get used up fairly quickly... but the smaller time frames on hourly 60min charts can give clues about daily turns - even larger turns

 

Nothing works all the time. I took down another position in USEG at 3.80 risking to the double bottom of 3.70. I quite naturally took myself out at 3.66. Stock went to 3.50 and the sob made a high today at 4.30. It ain't easy. :D

 

The market is one good way to loose money ain't it...

 

That and women. Good thing about the market is the ability to kick out bad positions quickly. :D

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Charm - I can't trade period.

 

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

 

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".

? "Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best. :)

?

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

 

you have to trade the timeframe you want - if daily you need to trade the daily support resistance, but also keep in mind what the weekly and monthly are doing.... daily cause can get used up fairly quickly... but the smaller time frames on hourly 60min charts can give clues about daily turns - even larger turns

 

Nothing works all the time. I took down another position in USEG at 3.80 risking to the double bottom of 3.70. I quite naturally took myself out at 3.66. Stock went to 3.50 and the sob made a high today at 4.30. It ain't easy. :D

 

The market is one good way to loose money ain't it...

 

That and women. Good thing about the market is the ability to kick out bad positions quickly. :D

 

relationships are more important than all the money in the world - just look around.... plenty of evidence for that

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Charmly,

 

We seem to be reading from the same hymnbook. Currently for my swing trading model I use 65 minute charts. Why 65 minutes. Well nobody else uses them. No, so each day fits into an even number of periods close to 1 hour. For support and resistance I use this timeframe's S/R. I run these in conjunction with a 10 period weighted moving average.

Here's an example. NEM rolled over on Thursday but remained in a tight range. However on Friday it opened below near term support in a new downtrend. IMMEDIATE SELL at or near the open 38.20. We stretched down to 37.66 but that's been it. We appear to have turned green again this period. However this is complicated by a gap closure this morning. So one could buy on a new high in the next period or on a move above 38.50. Third choice but not favoured is the breakout of 39.00. Then again if we can't get it up any further then we are short from around these levels.

This is just the first example that came to hand and not a very good one. VLO and RIMM usually provide much richer picking then NEM.

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ok there Thor - I'm trying to sing from it...

I was looking at ES the other day and hourly volume is the highest since a while ago and the result is traders took profit....

 

anything less than 60 min and I got brain damage, but very informative also..

post-326-1115655085_thumb.jpg

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