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Charmin

Daily Digger - Mon. 5/9 to Fri. 5/13, '05

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Wondering if anyone saw Jeffrey Saut and some other guy interviewed on Crapvision Friday by Maria. I only caught a glimpse.

  The subject of the jobs number came up and Maria was gushing about the 274K jobs being created.

  Jeffrey Saut said something to the effect "the thing about the jobs number that I don't hear on your show or any place else is that 250K of the 274K were due to a new way the government counts jobs" or something to that effect or "the government is now adding ----- to the jobs number".

 

Anyway, the camera flashed back to Maria who had looked over her shoulder like WTF? Then looked back in the camera and completely ignored the remark and went into another question.

Within a 10 seconds they lost contact with both guests. After a short commercial break they were able to get the other guy back on satellite but not Saut.

 

Was I seeing things? Did anyone else watch this?

 

Why wasn't the market rallying hard on those jobs numbers Friday and today?

 

Charm - you're right. Silver is going to lead.

 

Old Habits... I say forget the news - it's only volatility in the short term - the market is going to support or resistance no matter...

 

can you trade news? I can't

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Charm - I can't trade period.

 

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

 

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".

"Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best. :)

 

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

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...and that's the last we'll hear of Jeffrey Saut in the mainstream financial press. He's toast. In fact you might say he has been sauteed.

 

However I hate to disagree with you about the news. It is the best way of finding out what "they" want you to do and what "they" want you to think. This is invaluable information especially in the short to intermediate term. Like the $105 barrel of oil. I remember when some one in my office (Kufpec) mentioned that to me implying how good this will be. All I could think of to say was "I guess somebody wants to sell a lot of oil contracts." Long term they will almost certainly be right but short to medium term what a great sell signal. This is why the sudden rush to press of $500 gold articles has me so worried. Like anything has really changed in the last few days/weeks? Like with GM and its pension woes. Oh, like there was a surprise, who knew, eh? If and when the $ plummets and gold goes through the roof over the long term, what a surprise it will be. Oh my.

But I digress, I was talking about the news. Another reason for following the news is because it is a great source of comic relief.

Don't you just ache for 1 of those days where the PMS stocks making 10% up moves are your laggards? :rolleyes:

I'm sure there's 1 coming. Some day.

Paid $100 for an article on how to buy penny gold stocks the other day. I'll save you the C-note and give you the gist of it. Buy high quality junior mining stocks that are in a proven uptrend with excellent exploration potential and low production costs and simply wait for them to be caned back into pennies per share. :lol:

But seriously folks!

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I guess being sauteed is better that being skewered? No, maybe not.

 

News does matter, news makes charts - rarely the other way around. Still can't trade it. :)

 

Thor-

are you sure everyone knows that gold is going to $500?

 

It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone here, then again we're talking about ten people.

Do you think the masses go to gold eagle or read the GFMS report? Occasionally we'll get a gold segment on financial news, but that was back at the highs. Now, Crapvision posts a chart two or three times a day when Santelli is on for a quote.

 

I don't know, when I mention gold to friends, even ones that follow the markets, I still get that look of why????

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While I think that the Miners have more downside, I'm starting to look for long entries.

 

SMSC has a number of picks at the public chart lists on Stockcharts.com. He says buy the stocks that have mo-mo going for them already.

 

I've been whippsawed repeatedly by CBJ.TO. I thought that the accumulation/distribution indicator was bullish all through the decline.

 

It was, of course, until everyone exited on the last downdraft. So much for volume indicators.

 

It's major wave 5 time up, shortly.

 

That means that every dog will have it's day. In my opinion, the dogs will run, as all the garbage is fair game in wave 5.

 

That brings me back to CBJ.

 

A 61.8% correction targets 2.11. Where C=A the target is 2.02.

 

In a C wave, trend should not show any positive divergence. After all, third waves are the most powerful.

 

The stochastic's buy signal on a weekly chart is interesting.

 

Translation from Canuck to American. Buy between 2.02 and 2.11 CDN, and 1.43 and 1.58 USD.

 

Bearvest have you looked at KRY?

 

I gotta tell ya, if I had any balls at all I'd sell every damn loser and buy KRY with the proceeds, that stock is a stud.

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At last we have thrown off the shackles. We are no longer tied to physical. Interestingly enough ole Hewey has been twisting and turning in nearly lockstep with the POS for over a year now. Well at least it was until April. After that there has been no correlation at all. What does that mean? Well if you think it means that the $HUI is leading and silver will soon follow, you might be right. However, I think that usually works in a short time frame but a month and a half? Maybe at major turn points like 2000 but here after a sizeable decline? No, I think it's different this time. Why? Because gold and silver are valued in $s and miners are valued in gold and silver. WHAT? Sure! In these inflationary times gold and silver standing still means the miners becoming less profitable all the time. We need rising metal prices just to stay in place. We need escalating metal prices to really get a nove up in the PMS. It's as if somehow we need to factor the (POO) price of oil into the PMS/POG and PMS/POS equations. It IS different this time because oil has risen hard and gold has lagged. Miners must bear these costs and in order to do this profitably they need to sell their product at a higher price. But ah there's the rub.

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Charm - I can't trade period.

 

Occasionally one of you techies will throw a chart of something up and I'll take a stab at it. Most recently was TFH's USEG. It looked beat up enough to bounce.

 

Support/resistance? How often does that work? I'll tell you a stategy I've rarely seen work is the "buy the new high breakout".

  "Buy the beaten up bounce" prolly works the best. :)

 

If support doesn't hold, then becomes resistance. Do you sell and then buy the next level of support?

 

you have to trade the timeframe you want - if daily you need to trade the daily support resistance, but also keep in mind what the weekly and monthly are doing.... daily cause can get used up fairly quickly... but the smaller time frames on hourly 60min charts can give clues about daily turns - even larger turns

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I guess being sauteed is better that being skewered? No, maybe not.

 

News does matter, news makes charts - rarely the other way around. Still can't trade it. :)

 

Thor-

  are you sure everyone knows that gold is going to $500?

 

It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone here, then again we're talking about ten people.

  Do you think the masses go to gold eagle or read the GFMS report? Occasionally we'll get a gold segment on financial news, but that was back at the highs. Now, Crapvision posts a chart two or three times a day when Santelli is on for a quote.

 

I don't know, when I mention gold to friends, even ones that follow the markets, I still get that look of why????

 

Oh no, you've got me all wrong. I'm not saying everyone knows gold is going to $500. Its not that at all. And I know for sure that gold is anywhere but mainstream. It's not even a backwater. More like Altus, Arkansas. :lol:

Did the news of $500 gold make any real stir? No, but the $105 oil was headline news. Still you have to ask yourself why was there a sudden rush of $500 gold predictions that even made it into the daily broadsheets and such. Maybe it's nothing but I worry about shit like that. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if gold was rising and people were politely ignoring it or better yet casting aspersions on it.

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Thanks Charm

I'm sure I could find a way to lose $ trading no matter what chart or time frame I use. I don't have the mental make-up to be a trader, you know the one that doesn't hang on to losing trades?

 

Gotta agree with you on "this time is different scenario with oil" Thor. Miners will be limited in their ability to rally until the metal starts to go. Inflation is killing their profits.

This is why I find HUI 300, XAU 155 by year end so absurd. If you're betting on HUI 300 then you better be betting on gold $500+ and beginning to rise against all currencies.

 

Which begs the question, WTF am I doing in this sector?

Oh yeah, gold is going to $1650 :o

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