traderfromhell Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 ya really think so... decouple how? Why? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> How or why? Gave up on trying to make any sense of anything long ago. Just trying to go with the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted May 14, 2005 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 ok, so you read Doc in the day tape talk haven't been there at all.... first time reading comments.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted May 14, 2005 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 take a look at XOM - it's actually going to hit 52 support soon... probably be ready to bounce once crude hits it's target around 47.71 oh man, just looked - june crude just hit 47.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 qqqq - safe haven - good one! Actually did not make out tooooo bad yesterday. Strength in ADGD and NXG combined with a late rally in NEM that I rode for a good little daytrade covered most of the usual down 5 and 6% losers. Hard to believe I pulled 24 cents out of NEM long looking at the chart. Probly make me the only goob to make money in NEM Friday only from the long side. I won't bother going into individual stories. It will turn when it turns but it's been an impressively bad 4 days any way you slice it. VLO is doing worse than a lot of the miners and that is saying something. It's an all commodity smackdown. Seems that the bets are being taken that the soft patch was just a soft patch and we are headed for a new scenario now. How long before THAT consensus pendulums to the other side in this choppy changing schizo-market? I love all the various pseudo-relationships like stocks bad bonds good or dollar good gold bad. Forget all that crap and stick to support and resistance and moving averages pertinent to what you are trading and your timeframe. I'm just amazed that it all seems so easy just now. It never seemed to work this well before, or did it? Oh and copper and lumber down? Maybe they are going to be building a lot fewer houses in North America soon. Well they have to slow down sometime. It's called oversupply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 COT http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 gold in euro and rand up this week http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?...=ZAR&amt=1&t=3m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 COT http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Well that data looks better than last weeks and hopefully improved even further in the past few days. Over on goldeagle there was a post that stated that comex was cutting margin requirements on gold nearly in half as of the close Monday. I haven't even tried to verify. I don't know what that means other than the margin calls won't come as quickly. Some speculated that the commercials want to go long now. What else would they speculate on a gold bull site? I'm hearing all sorts of bullish dollar predictions now all the way up to 105 and some HUI calls to 120 - Saville target? Seems like there needs to be a pause - but who knows. Lastly a rumor about Goldman selling stocks all day Friday and buying ten year treasuries. Why would they do that? What would make them think that the ten year would rally? That is the Fed's weapon. Maybe we get to find out if there was any hedge fund problems over the weakend. Volitility starting to spike, nervous time, somethings gonna give here soon I think. Maybe pensions? http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/demeritt051305.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 abandoned baby Doesn't that need a doji ? (Hey, what would I know ) http://www.stockcharts.com/education/Chart...kDictionary.htm I'm not asking for an island reversal, I would settle for a dollar retreat now . Dr Copper broke down too. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COPPER,uu[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14]&pref=G Sorry, didn't see this post. "from lemetropole: The Comex has dramatically lowered the margin requirement for gold effective the close of business on Monday ? from $2250 to $1350 per contract." Maybe the PTB are afraid of de(sin)flation now and would prefer Gold (and Copper?) to climb back in uptrend. They'd better act fast ... Difficult to trade such manipulated markets ... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Sorry didn't see this. Plantigrade is there a link to the comex margin requirements anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plantigrade Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 Tumi This would make a nice bottom . Granted, I have been calling for one since the 0.80s (and averaging down ) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 I don't know if this link will work or not but this is where it is on Le Metropole http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pf...archParam=comex Interesting note to me is the brief comment on JPM. The brokers haven't looked too good lately, if I were sitting at home on my computer, reading this stuff, I'd be fearful if I were in the broad market. I don't buy this wall of worry crapola either - I think there is alot to worry about. Something is afoot, and I suspect it isnt pleasant. Saw some pretty good size last trades go by on a few of the miners - but only a few. NEM - 45k, NXG - 110K, SIL 40K. Not big $'s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 I do not like the way lease rates are going up Somebody trying to short ? http://www.kitco.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 Gold in euros still up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vitalsigns Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 This is it! my work says Miners turn up this week . I started to buy late Friday small position and am looking for a reversal up no later than th 18th . This may only be the 5th of 3 of this C leg down and the 5 of 5 of C is not due until end of May . Which means the bounce will be a 4th of C or the lows we see this week are it and the new leg begins. If we fall for the last leg of the c , the 5th will either be a failed 5th which only retests support low we form now or it will have to be an extended 5th because there is not much support to hold above XAU 77.50 if that breaks, means we would have to fall back into the 60's. (low odds of that to happen based on my work) For now , the Miners have taken the brunt of the downside while Gold still has to fall another $20 or so . This will be the alibi that the big guys use to accumulate miners (Big guys start by shorting Miners , big guys sell off gold , freak out retail Gold miner longs , force them to sell , Big guys push Gold even lower , Big guys buy miners accumulate long position , then big guys buy Bullion long again and push price up and hold until the next highs, then cycle starts all over again ). Never easy to buy gold miners because everything always looks at it worst in this sector when the signal comes . Oil low expected this week , Grains expected up , and Dollar very close to my 87 target with 87-90 being the band range I wanted to see before I dipped back into miners . Come July/August the tables will have turned and the markets will once again be talking good economic numbers and inflation fears instead of the current deflation fears and recession being the talk of the town today . Enjoy your weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 This is it! my work says Miners turn up this week . I started to buy late Friday small position and am looking for a reversal up no later than th 18th . This may only be the 5th of 3 of this C leg down and the 5 of 5 of C is not due until end of May . Which means the bounce will be a 4th of C or the lows we see this week are it and the new leg begins. If we fall for the last leg of the c , the 5th will either be a failed 5th which only retests support low we form now or it will have to be an extended 5th because there is not much support to hold above XAU 77.50 if that breaks, means we would have to fall back into the 60's. (low odds of that to happen based on my work) For now , the Miners have taken the brunt of the downside while Gold still has to fall another $20 or so . This will be the alibi that the big guys use to accumulate miners (Big guys start by shorting Miners , big guys sell off gold , freak out retail Gold miner longs , force them to sell , Big guys push Gold even lower , Big guys buy miners accumulate long position , then big guys buy Bullion long again and push price up and hold until the next highs, then cycle starts all over again ). Never easy to buy gold miners because everything always looks at it worst in this sector when the signal comes . Oil low expected this week , Grains expected up , and Dollar very close to my 87 target with 87-90 being the band range I wanted to see before I dipped back into miners . Come July/August the tables will have turned and the markets will once again be talking good economic numbers and inflation fears instead of the current deflation fears and recession being the talk of the town today . Enjoy your weekend <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Sounds very plausible. I think Bearvest has a very similar scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted May 14, 2005 Report Share Posted May 14, 2005 Well been wandering through the wonderful world of PMS stocks rather than just lazily graphing the indices and my takeaways are pretty interesting. There is obviously many things at play as the selling has not been wholesale. There are the haves and the havenots and everything in between. There are enough have nots to suggest the selling is not company specific but simply a general markdown overdone in certain stocks and underdone (relatively) in others. That spells O P P O R T U N I T Y to me. That is why I'm trying to pick up the Dover Sole bouncers as I believe they will have the greatest potential in any rally. Also sticking to stocks under $5 fot the same reason. (Finding PMS stocks under $5 is like trying to find a needle in a needle stack.) Anyway, many stocks appear to have turned already in ways not suggestive of shortcovering but of real buying interest. Another long list are back very near a veritable arctic sea of ice support. A bounce from near these levels or even better a drop and reverse would be bullish especially with a following bounce off a higher level on a pullback. Not saying we are at the end of the selling. But this is the kind of place where one might look back to in years to come and wonder why it was one didn't get fully long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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