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Daily Digger - Mon. 5/9 to Fri. 5/13, '05


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we got price...

 

May 8....

 

"From a technical point-of-view, we like the golds on pullbacks, but would like to see 81.79 taken out on huge volume, which would likely develop a Bullish Weekly Squat in combo with multi-week bullish momentum divergences and VDI's. Then, a solid new bull can begin."

 

http://www.feargreed.com

 

 

The operative word I think is squat. :D

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look at the $#! countertrend rally in biotech BBH since the march high on the stock indices..  and XAU

 

 

I've been fortune to have put my subs in BBH and out of Gold in early March ,

 

result has been a 27 % gain in BBH and avoided a 20% loss in Golds during this same time . Now we are getting set to re-enter in Golds , just waiting for the signal .

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Well, if this doesn't do an abrupt u-turn here within the next day or so, I may join the camp that the bull market in gold never really was one. Or the bull market has ended. Doesn't really matter.

 

Geez, then I'm going to have to send Prechter a note of congratulations.

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HL.. $4.31.. it was around there with $5. silver. Didn't think they could take it back. My first buy was at $3.85. Bastards.

 

Major wipeouts in the miners.. very ugly for my LT portfolio

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look at the $#! countertrend rally in biotech BBH since the march high on the stock indices..? and XAU

 

 

I've been fortune to have put my subs in BBH and out of Gold in early March ,

 

result has been a 27 % gain in BBH and avoided a 20% loss in Golds during this same time . Now we are getting set to re-enter in Golds , just waiting for the signal .

 

Man, that's incredible vitalsigns. BBH had to be near the best performers in the market recently while the golds were clearly the worst.

I don't know how some guys do it, always finding the winners. :)

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lower low in HUI/XAU, but again, higher low in RSI, stochastics, MACD, etc... (Unless we keep falling for a while).

 

Some an even more extreme bullish divergence than a couple weeks ago.

 

For me, this isnt a lower low (at least yet). GSS is 10% above its previous low, SSRI is higher, in fact every PM stock I own is higher now than at the previous low, in several cases like GSS, significantly, even though the HUI and XAU are down.

 

I think its mainly stuff like NEM, FCX that are lower...

 

I'm just gonna kee pholding, and not trading....just dollar cost averagin. When we have a long rally, I'll start selling stuff on strength as it goes up and waiting on the next major pullback like this one. But that'll be awhile....

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Womback! . . . Womback!! . . . Womback!!! . . .

 

What says "Womback" and rides shotgun on a double-wide pick up truck?

 

Jus' one goober gone mad backin' up he truck wit all he favorites gettin ready fo' da nex' blast off!!! :D

. . . buy the dips goobers, 'specially when everyone freakin out runnin fo' the exits!!! :blink:

 

Mo' DEZ at 1.12 / Mo' MRB at 1.22 / NTO at 2.29 / Mo' SA at 2.18 / Mo' AQI.TO at .85 / Mo' etc. . . . . B)

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Bad News - Ivanhoe down - one of the most undervalued plays. :angry:

 

Good News - Ivanhoe now even more undervalued and even more attractive to value investors :)

 

More Good News - Copper fundamentals continue bullish despite all bearish predictions: LME/Comex - 81,500 MT - 25,150 MT. They're running on fumes alright. :)

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GOOBER ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

CODE INTERCEPTED and CRACKED!!!

________________________________

 

MONKIES BEN SHAKEN OUT UH THE TREE!!!

 

I REPEAT -

 

MONKIES BEEN SHAKEN OUT THE TREE!!!

 

________________________________

 

(secret "buy signal" code used by nefarious PPT to instruct members to accumulate gold stocks like there's no tomorrow-back up the truck-BUY!!!)

 

;)

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look at the $#! countertrend rally in biotech BBH since the march high on the stock indices..? and XAU

 

 

I've been fortune to have put my subs in BBH and out of Gold in early March ,

 

result has been a 27 % gain in BBH and avoided a 20% loss in Golds during this same time . Now we are getting set to re-enter in Golds , just waiting for the signal .

 

Man, that's incredible vitalsigns. BBH had to be near the best performers in the market recently while the golds were clearly the worst.

I don't know how some guys do it, always finding the winners. :)

 

 

I have plenty of tools at my disposal that help me dig up the clues and Astrology

is a definite help . In January we played AMAT looking for a bounce off $15 and a move towards $17.450 which is did , hitting $18 before reversing lower. We've had a very good year so far . And hope that it continues that way .

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Copper has been in a distribution trading range.... if you didn't notice

and lumber has in the past few weeks been limit down....

 

what does that tell you...

the economy is unraveling....

 

 

GOLD BUY Indicator

 

"Probably the simplest way to emphasize conditions in the precious metals shares is to examine a simple valuation indicator that is, surprisingly, nearly as useful as much more sophisticated indicators: the ratio of the spot price of gold to the Philadelphia XAU Index. On Friday, spot gold closed at 434.39, while the XAU closed at 83.51. That put the Gold/XAU ratio at 5.20 on 5/6/05.

"To put some historical context on this measure, since 1974, the Gold/XAU ratio has been greater than 5.0 about 15% of the time. When the ratio has been 5.0 or higher, the XAU has followed with annualized gains of 89.6%, on average ? a figure that remains high even if the data is split into multiple samples. When the ratio has been greater than 4.0, the XAU has followed with average annualized gains of 27.4% (though the finer profile of returns has been sensitive to other conditions such as interest rates, economic trends, and inflation). In contrast, when the ratio has been less than 3.0 (meaning that the gold stocks are very elevated relative to the actual metal), the XAU has declined at an annualized rate of -36.6%, on average."

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XAU:

 

Getting close.

 

The first chart shows the long term. If this last Black C wave is a 3-3-5, we've achieved target, where the c wave is equal to the a wave at 79.90. If Black C is to equal A, target is 75.88.

 

The second chart shows the final c of C. If it is a simple wave 5 extension, we are near its lows. Potential divergence building in Stochastics and PPO support this count.

 

The third chart focuses on the very short term. It carries on with the small 3rd, 4th, and unfolding 5th waves of chart 2.

 

It looks like we've completed or are near complete 3 waves of 5. We should bounce or go flat for a while in a complex pattern. Then a last decline in 5, that completes the impulse down in c of C.

 

Many of you may recall last October, when I called a top based on a 5th wave extension, and thereafter had to re-draw my counts as the 5th continually expanded. There's nothing to say it can't happen here, but bottoms are more climactic, and this 4% move in one day fits the mould.

 

Edit: Charts got out of order. The first chart is the second, and vice-versa.

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Here's the long chart again. Note the revisions to the target, Where C =A

 

The best fit is that this is a corrective "flat". It is a sideways correction. It is 3 waves that subdivide 3-3-5 (illustrated above). The C wave ends near the price level of A. The B wave nearly retraces all of A.

 

If so, we'll need a lot more work and the bottom is several weeks away. So far Black C is only 3 waves. Trajectory here would be a bottom in the next few trading days, a 4th wave up to around 87 (as 4th waves commonly retrace to to 4th of the last wave), and a small 5 wave micro 5th down. Ten to 15 trading days.

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