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Charmin

Daily Digger - Mon. 5/2 to Fri. 5/6, '05

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Mr. Bigtrends must be Kookie...

 

Charmin- I sincerely hope you don't send any of your hard earned $ to Mr. Bigtrends himself Price Headley, who BTW was a guest on one of the FOX Sunday a.m. prognosticating shows.

 

I know I have shared the story of Mr. Headley's money management skills for none other than yours truly. :angry:

 

Hadjin, if your listening, we should be fairly close to going parabolic in the miners. If Headley thinks the XAU is going to 62, then rest assured, it is going to 162.

 

He is an absolute schmuck.

 

Uh, inflation is now contained. Okay but what about deficits? Stagflation? Falling Buck?

 

Dharma - if we're concerned about the consumption of jewelry then I think we're in the wrong sector.

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Mr. Bigtrends must be Kookie...

 

Charmin- I sincerely hope you don't send any of your hard earned $ to Mr. Bigtrends himself Price Headley, who BTW was a guest on one of the FOX Sunday a.m. prognosticating shows.

 

I know I have shared the story of Mr. Headley's money management skills for none other than yours truly. :angry:

 

Hadjin, if your listening, we should be fairly close to going parabolic in the miners. If Headley thinks the XAU is going to 62, then rest assured, it is going to 162.

 

He is an absolute schmuck.

 

Uh, inflation is now contained. Okay but what about deficits? Stagflation? Falling Buck?

 

Dharma - if we're concerned about the consumption of jewelry then I think we're in the wrong sector.

 

I thought today was very positive. Very.

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NEM:

 

Long term, here's where I stand.

 

We are in a nasty 4th wave (the black numerical count). It should be a flat. That's a 3-3-5 pattern.

 

From the 2003 highs, there's an obvious abc down into May. The rally off the May lows, at wave A, follows a channel, but it constantly overlapped. Bullish looking, but a corrective pattern, nonetheless. That is wave B. It failed to achieve a price high. PPO divergence confirmed that it was corrective.

 

Recent action is a 4th of what will be 5 in a final C wave of the flat. From the small black wave b, one can see a short 1 down, a short or sideways 2 up, a long 3 down, and sideways action for 4.

 

I do not subscribe to the bearish consensus that we'll head significantly lower.

 

We should see a bottom within the next 5-8 trading days.

post-1352-1115099521_thumb.jpg

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ok then, this morning I get another daily update from Bigtrends and it's non other than a study on why the dollar is going higher. You do know that Uncle Buck could go to 87 right?

 

"OK, so what's the deal behind the dollar's weakness? And more importantly, when will it end? We discussed this in detail in November, but we can summarize it here in a few words - the dollar is weak because inflation (in dollars) is greater than the interest rates you can receive on dollar-denominated assets. In other words, you're losing buying power by holding cash. Remember in the late 90's when you were receiving 4% on a money market account? With inflation just above 3% at the time, there was at least some incentive to own dollar-based assets. But think about what happened when the Fed had to drop rates. Now you might get 0.5% on a money market (if you're lucky), but inflation never sunk that low. About the lowest inflation rate we saw was 1.0% (from mid-2002). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that you were losing money by accepting low yields on your money market, because the prices of.....well, everything was increasing at a greater rate. The same scenario applies U.S. government bonds, CDs, etc. Who'd want to own something that was effectively going to lose money? The demand for dollar-denominated assets dropped like a rock beginning in mid-2002, and the dollar's value dropped accordingly (the supply and demand model works for currencies too). The bottom line is simple - a dollar was a liability rather than an asset."

 

When he gets it up on his site I'll try to post the link

 

The Dollar, Take 2

May 3, 2005

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... Bigtrends ... jewelry ...

:P I liked the simultaneously contradictory Orwell-speak, to arrive at the same conclusion that Gold is going down:

Mr Bigtrend : "the Fed succeeded in controlling inflation, ergo Gold down"

Mr Impulse : "the market senses inflation and recession in jewelry, ergo Gold down".

 

I bet those brain-impaired persons never heard about Popperian logic :rolleyes: .

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ok who thinks rises to $40 first....

 

Okay - $40 before 34.75 for NEM

 

I'm hearing more and more voices in the $ rally camp. It has rallied from what, just under 81 to 84.50 since the beginning of the year?

 

It seems to me it is getting to the point in TIME where it needs to assert itself higher to the 87 area or succumb to the downside.

 

Haven't seen the COT data in a while - has anyone been watching? can you post a link?

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ok who thinks rises to $40 first....

 

Okay - $40 before 34.75 for NEM

 

I'm hearing more and more voices in the $ rally camp. It has rallied from what, just under 81 to 84.50 since the beginning of the year?

 

It seems to me it is getting to the point in TIME where it needs to assert itself higher to the 87 area or succumb to the downside.

 

Haven't seen the COT data in a while - has anyone been watching? can you post a link?

 

This is the last COT I saw

 

http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

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