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Charmin

Daily Digger - Wednesday April 20, '05

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Now that 42 is clearly defined on NEM well have to see how it holds mid range of 40 area lows

 

50% back is the 41 area right now

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XAU:

 

The little impulse completed this a.m.

 

Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.

 

Getting back to the intra-day chart, first impulses are always paired--- they are either wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of an abc.

 

A safe scalp trade is to catch the c wave in wave 2 or b once a clear abc is formed.

 

I think we've impulsed down in wave a of the very minute abc correction. There should be a counter-trend rally lasting a few trading hours and a final decline also lasting a few hours or a day.

 

The dollar's bearish pattern should support a significant rally.

post-1352-1114054881_thumb.gif

post-1352-1114054900_thumb.png

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XAU:

 

The little impulse completed this a.m.

 

Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.

 

Getting back to the intra-day chart, first impulses are always paired--- they are either wave 1 of an impulse or wave a of an abc.

 

A safe scalp trade is to catch the c wave in wave 2 or b once a clear abc is formed.

 

I think we've impulsed down in wave a of the very minute abc correction. There should be a counter-trend rally lasting a few trading hours and a final decline also lasting a few hours or a day.

 

The dollar's bearish pattern should support a significant rally.

 

 

So you figure it's going to take a couple of months before that last wave up starts?

It will be brutal to go to 110 and then drop back to 90. That might shake out the last of the believers.

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XAU:

 

The little impulse completed this a.m.

 

Here's how I see it fitting into the much larger pattern. All of the waves since December, 2003 have been abc's. It looks like a triangle is forming, bounded by 110 and the uptrend line.

 

 

 

 

So you figure it's going to take a couple of months before that last wave up starts?

It will be brutal to go to 110 and then drop back to 90. That might shake out the last of the believers.

 

Rallies emerge out of disbelief. I think Feedfool, who's a Master at Elliott, pointed out this pattern before I recognized it.

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I'm still in show me mode. It looks like a legitimate bottom from an Dover Sole level, but I really haven't tried to put any upside targets on it. I have my core position hedged with covered calls and unless its going to new highs those calls should expire worthless. I'm still short puts on SSRI and MDG and I'm down on those, but the trades were entered with the willingness to be assigned. Most likely is the premium will burn and they will either expire worthless or I will buy then back lower at a profit. HUI having recaptured the 2/8 low of 190.45 looks good to go, but what a ride its been; I don't count on anything in this crazy market, PM or otherwise.

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