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Charmin

Daily Digger - Friday April 15, '05

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I felt like selling Harmony and Kinross in despair

This must be a bottom because the bottom makes me feel desparate

On the other hand I feel very confortable holding gold coins

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Well put tfh.

 

Yes, of course there is no reason why we couldn't be experiencing a cyclical bear within the context of a secular bull in the PMS. Historically the bearish periods have often been very long compared to short sharp bullish periods. So odds are at any given time it's a bear gold market.

 

My main point is that one should buy when the timeliness turns positive and remain long only so long as the condition lasts. One may get whipsawed at times but I'm sure this is better than sitting thru long declines. The problem to me is merely is the definition of timeliness with a focus on timeframe.

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I'm talking specifically about the miners. Gold to my way of thinking isn't a market. Sure it's traded like a market, but since it is the only true money (if not really a monetary unit) then it is the benchmark around which everything else revolves. ie Gold doesn't move up or down vs the $, it's the other way around. One should view everything priced in units of gold but it's just too much work doing all the conversions out of fiat.

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I'm talking specifically about the miners. Gold to my way of thinking isn't a market. Sure it's traded like a market, but since it is the only true money (if not really a monetary unit) then it is the benchmark around which everything else revolves. ie Gold doesn't move up or down vs the $, it's the other way around. One should view everything priced in units of gold but it's just too much work doing all the conversions out of fiat.

 

 

Own the metals regardless of "price". :D

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Agreed.

 

However, the amount of fiat your PMs can command varies and due to some collective madness it seems sometimes this amount even declines. However during certain periods when the amount of fiat which can be bought with gold is rising quickly then miners can make a profit. This in turn leads to a rise in the price of miners (relative to gold of course) which means, of course, that during these times it would be better to hold miners as profits can all be exchanged for more gold in the long run. And equally "of course" there are times that joining in whatever collective madness is afoot can lead to a bigger hoard later rather then just sitting comfortably on the one you have. However all of this requires a lot of hard work.

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More on collective madness.

 

Ever wondered why copper has gone up by 250% in the same time that gold has gone up just a fraction of this? Then ask yourself, how much gold there is in your average house. No, not YOUR average house, I mean the building itself. How much copper? When this collective madness ends as it surely will, copper will plunge as the demand dries up. Copper is a commodity. But wait, I thought commodities were going to go higher?!? Maybe, but first comes asset deflation then when the "cure" kicks in, will come the bull market in inflation and that's when the miners will soar.

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At the end of this week the price and 65 ema and 200 ema did meet

in eurogold

So now we either go up or we forget the golden cross

Shares are orfull

post-1584-1113639551_thumb.jpg

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More on collective madness.

 

Ever wondered why copper has gone up by 250% in the same time that gold has gone up just a fraction of this? Then ask yourself, how much gold there is in your average house. No, not YOUR average house, I mean the building itself. How much copper? When this collective madness ends as it surely will, copper will plunge as the demand dries up. Copper is a commodity. But wait, I thought commodities were going to go higher?!? Maybe, but first comes asset deflation then when the "cure" kicks in, will come the bull market in inflation and that's when the miners will soar.

 

 

My thinming is that 2005-2006 will be the equivalent to commodities as 1987 was to the stock market . Most remember 1987 as A Crash but what it was really was an important time market within the larger Bull market and not the end . So too will this corrective phase of the Commodity bull . It is never easy and usually gets quite ugly and messy near the lows of each swing . Keeping a line on the horizon as to where this is really headed keeps one's emotions in check and allows one to buy when others become fearful and hysterical , and sell when others are maniacal.

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MADNESS OF CROWDS

 

GOOBS - I HAFTA SAY THE DOLLAR LOOKS COOKED.

 

DOLLAR DOWN - GOLD UP - GOLD STOCKS????????????? GULP!

 

SWISSY READY FO RUMBLE!!!

DOLLAR READY FO TUMBLE!!!

 

GOOBER GETTIN HE ARSE KICKED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :unsure:

post-2021-1113709938_thumb.jpg

post-2021-1113709959_thumb.jpg

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Welp goobers - I'm tryin to remain optimistic and take the "GLASS HALF FOOOOL" approach!!!!!

 

The goooo news was that CoT Open Interest is rising again!!! Bodes well fo gold!!!!

 

The goooo news - commercials shorts have further to go!!!!

 

The baaad news - I'M IN GOLD STOCKS AND GETTIN MY ARSE KICKED LIKE THERE'S NO FREAKING TOMORROW!!!

 

The goooo news is MAYBE the XAU just wanted to fill the gap and MAYBE wants to go back up to 91 where I MAY or may not GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE!!!!!

 

The goooo news is MAYBE we'll get a bounce in the broad markets to pull gold stocks up.

 

I've attached the "Glass Half FOOOOL" Cot chart for your perusal. Added my "BEST WISHES" to some charts cockroached from Dan Norcini.

 

Please gimme some GOOOOOOOO NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

HELP ME MOMMA!!!!!!!!!!!

 

GOOBER OUT!!!!!!!!!! :unsure:

post-2021-1113710986_thumb.jpg

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I come back to it again and again. I see it on every chart in every thing. I don't want to add to your pain but I feel I must rehash it.

 

NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES HOLD OR BUY A STOCK WHICH HAS BROKEN SUPPORT UNLESS AND UNTIL IT COMPLETES ITS MOVE AND BEGINS A NEW UPTREND OR REGAINS A POSITION ABOVE SUPPORT.

 

Support (some call it ICE which is apt) is pretty easy to define as tops tell to be broad affairs. Bottoms tend to be short and sharp (a cycloid for the mathematically enclined). New uptrends can be defined it a broad sense with moving averages or the indicators of choice such as RSI and MACD. Do not trust in fundamentals, people lie. Do not trust in volume, it is tainted. Trust only in price. If stocks have low volume even price is iffy.

 

More: Never marry one side of any market. Marriage is a bond for life, a shackle and a weakness which others can exploit.

 

If you think there is manipulation in a market don't cry about it. Leave or learn how to exploit it.

 

Follow these simple rules and you will make money. Ignore them and you are at best gambling and most likely burning capital.

 

Anyway, still working on my PMS timeliness chart. It will take a little time to set up but once I get the backtesting infilled the maintenance will be easy. With my resource I can go back 384 market days. This takes us back 18 months. Another year back would have been better. But basically what I am seeing is the worst timeliness in 18 months. I will be back when I finish.

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Gold Majestic - holding to 91 XAU shows great courage and conviction. :)

 

Seriously, I don't follow charts much, but the charts I pulled on the HUI look about as Dover Sole as anytime in the past 3 years. So we ought to at least get a bounce in the next week or so to enable folks to get off the train.

 

Then again - we could bounce straight on up to XAU 155 like IKE said. :lol:

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Taylor

 

I include this article as it mosts closely reflects my feelings and aids in my ASSessment of what to worry about and how to play it.

 

Basically patience is the key. And patience means preserving capital and waiting until the time is right. If these 2 principles are followed gains may be spectacular. But this may require a lot of patience. It may also involve some whipsawing. But if one buys at sensible points with sensible stops breakeven on the whips on average should be possible so that capital is preserved for "The Big One."

 

Bear (so to speak) with me and I will attempt to help in this process if I can.

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Hedge Fund Diversification and Special Incentives

 

The Omen

 

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on WSE - Off The Wall

 

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