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Charmin

Daily Digger - Tuesday April 12, '05

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Dollar Matters:

 

http://www.forexstreet.com/nou/noticies/af...-e04a0f08-35578

 

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was slightly lower against major currencies in a quiet start to the week, ahead of some key US numbers starting Tuesday

Some sections of the market believe the US trade data for February, due tomorrow, will show a wider deficit than the 59 bln usd expected, pressuring the dollar lower. Clyde Wardle at HSBC Bank USA for one warned that the US trade gap may widen beyond 60 bln usd given the strength of the US domestic demand. The prospects of dollar falls will be even greater if a widening of the deficit is accompanied by a downbeat report on portfolio flows into the US in data due on Friday

The data will reveal if there was enough foreign flows into US assets to span the country's trade gap. There is speculation that some hedge funds moved away from US Treasuries in Feb, shortening the odds of soft overall inflow numbers during the month. "Neither report is expected to bring good news, with the trade deficit forecast to deteriorate back to 59 bln from 58.3 bln in January, and the TIC flow report unlikely to show capital flows on a scale comparable to January's surge," said Daniel Katzive at UBS

That aside, the minutes of the US Fed meeting on March 22 when interest rates were raised by a quarter point, due for release Tuesday, will also be of importance. Any hint that the Fed may yet increase the pace of its rate hikes will bolster the dollar

These factors suggest that the coming week could be a volatile one for the dollar, said Neil Mellor at Bank of New York. The pound, meanwhile, found a small lift from stronger than expected UK numbers

On the inflation front, the impact of surging oil prices saw producer prices rise above market expectations during March. At the same time it was revealed that the UK's trade position improved slightly in February as imports from countries outside the European Union dropped. ...

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I don't care how many ratio charts or whatever you care to drag out if the miners can't rally on days like this forget it short term. They bite now.

 

 

Those are some interesting words - especially on a board that lives and dies by charts. :blink:

 

However, checkout Tenke Mining(TNK.V) I imagine that chart looks like a work of art.

OTOH - CBJ, NXG, GBN are in a death spiral. I guess it's good they can't go below zero.

The volatility seems to be increasing in the buck, it wouldn't surprise me to see it sell off when the Fed minutes come out. Black is white. One thing for sure, the idea that rising rates are good for the buck is complete B.S.

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I don't care how many ratio charts or whatever you care to drag out if the miners can't rally on days like this forget it short term. They bite now.

 

 

Those are some interesting words - especially on a board that lives and dies by charts. :blink:

 

However, checkout Tenke Mining(TNK.V) I imagine that chart looks like a work of art.

OTOH - CBJ, NXG, GBN are in a death spiral. I guess it's good they can't go below zero.

The volatility seems to be increasing in the buck, it wouldn't surprise me to see it sell off when the Fed minutes come out. Black is white. One thing for sure, the idea that rising rates are good for the buck is complete B.S.

 

Sometimes u just gotta believe what u see. Pure ugly.

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if you remember the 87 crash, the gold stocks got thrown out w/every other stock!!! if the broads crash, then the pm stocks will too. i do think we are bottoming in the pms, barring a crash in the broads. like tfh, i like to see the pm stocks lead. nervously waiting. dharma

ps. short the qqqq

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if you remember the 87 crash, the gold stocks got thrown out w/every other stock!!! if the broads crash, then the pm stocks will too.  i do think we are bottoming in the pms, barring a crash in the broads.  like tfh, i like to see the pm stocks lead.    nervously waiting. dharma

ps. short the  qqqq

 

 

Gee, I'd hate to see what would happen to the miners if there was an 87' style crash. They seem to be able to go down 40% on their own without a broad market crash.

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I am disgusted to see the charts of Harmony and Kinross in Euros

but I will hold no matter what

So I am happy that Seven of Eleven and me have been going for gold coins

Because the gold coins have been going up

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Looking for a rally into the close today.

 

Course, I'm looking for a rally into the close everyday. :)

 

GRS - the shining light at the end of the tunnel.

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still think we bottom near the lunar elipse on the 24th! i do think the pms/stocks are making a low of major significance. wow! what a day! dharma

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Well guess you guys are up for some bad news and here it is a post from ole ThorAss. But actually I don't have that much bad to report.

 

Basically I'm still waiting for the Gold Bull Market to start. Here's what I think. In Gold Bull Makets the following things will happen.

 

Junior Gold stocks will rise.

South African Gold Stocks will rise.

Gold will rise against (almost?) all major world currencies.

Silver will rise.

Gold Stocks will outperform bullion.

Gold Stocks will outperform all other asset classes.

 

All of thses will happen in a Gold Bull Market. Now ask yourself, are these things happening? No obviously not! All we have been witnessing for several years is a decline in the US$ which gave the impression of a continuing Gold Bull Market. However, that is not to say that a real Gold Bull isn't just around the corner. And if you are convinced there is, and you turn out to be right, and you get in now well that's peachy. But I worry that you could still have many sad days ahead.

 

For my part I've decided that there are no other attractive "investments" right now. Certain things are suggesting to me that gold is the place to be just now even though the technicals doggedly refuse to swing in an upward direction. Working 24/7 in the real world as I am just now precludes the more advised approach of trading in and out (in high volume stocks) so I have cast about for at least swing alternatives or better longer term investments. Like where to park one's money just now. What I saw today rather intrigued me. Good volume coming in to certain gold stocks at support. Of course they could keep hammering away at support plus the sellers are still there. A late rally today looks good. Yet I fear that a killer gap down open turn around kind of wash out day is still needed to finish off the bulloids before the buyers show up in numbers.

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