traderfromhell Posted March 25, 2005 Report Share Posted March 25, 2005 The inability of the XAU to hold 93 on the first try and the ugly looking weekly charts on most of the gold stocks had me liquidating many of my Gold holdings this afternoon and will revisit this sector once I see some stability and the cycles converge again . April may not be nice to gold stocks if we close the Month weak as well . <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I would agree. Looks like its now time to get off the tracks and wait for the next train. Sometimes you win by not losing. Something stinks in pm land and this looks like we are entering a full blown correction with sub 190 written all over it perhaps even a good cleanout under 163. Too early to tell but I wouldn't rule out the possibility now of a retest of the 390-395 old top area. The miners look very sick although a small bounce from here can't be ruled out. I'm flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted March 25, 2005 Report Share Posted March 25, 2005 Just had a look at it again, since it seems, we're living in interesting times. Btw, glad to see a variety of opinions posted on this board again. Just thought I add add some stuff to my earlier post. I said my current stop is at the feb low of NEM, which nicely corresponds with the HUI low in feb of around 190. So, this may very well be on the cards, and I would buy it on the way there. (am a scale in, scale out kinda guy) It is possible that such a correction would go far into April, but I am reasonably convinced that should be the bottom according the bull scenario. Any close below, and I would scale out. However, in terms of probabilities, I perceive the upside much larger than the 4% down to my sell stop. As far as stocks, took some profit on the way up, still holding some with profit, and keep a few which are underwater. Trading stocks too frequently can be costly. The average buy/sell spreads on many of the midtier goldstocks are still in the 1% range, which means that a trade effectively costs you 1% of the trade value. If you trade for instance to avoid a loss of 4%, then in effect you only get 75% of your gains, while 25% are paid to spreads. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted March 26, 2005 Report Share Posted March 26, 2005 This guy can always be depended on for a little sanity, unlike some of the hysterics I've read lately. http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton032505.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted March 26, 2005 Report Share Posted March 26, 2005 Nova gold came into 8 bucks on less volume than on February 10th and close in top of range. I was looking for an ABC into 8.15. Stopped out for small loss may re-enter. Looks like a decent risk reward trade using 8.00 as a stop close only. Actually I'd be surprised to see the stock trade much under 8.15 if Gold comes in flat. I don't like the setup here in the miners here in the intermediate term but maybe I should just fade myself and go balls to the wall long. HUI support .618 range 163-258 hit Thursday at the 199 area. COT data actually improved a bit since last week's figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted March 27, 2005 Report Share Posted March 27, 2005 Nova gold came into 8 bucks on less volume than on February 10th and close in top of range. I was looking for an ABC into 8.15. Stopped out for small loss may re-enter. Looks like a decent risk reward trade using 8.00 as a stop close only. Actually I'd be surprised to see the stock trade much under 8.15 if Gold comes in flat. I don't like the setup here in the miners here in the intermediate term but maybe I should just fade myself and go balls to the wall long. HUI support .618 range 163-258 hit Thursday at the 199 area. COT data actually improved a bit since last week's figures. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> TFH - Would you mind posting the COT data? I know alot of you don't care for Sinclair, but his explanation for the $ rally has to do with the end of Japan's fiscal year and its' attempt to polish up their $ holdings. Seems to be as good of an excuse as any I've heard so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted March 27, 2005 Report Share Posted March 27, 2005 Gold Cot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted March 27, 2005 Report Share Posted March 27, 2005 Silver COT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowfish Posted March 27, 2005 Report Share Posted March 27, 2005 South African miners start strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted March 27, 2005 Report Share Posted March 27, 2005 deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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