Charmin Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Sorry for the lack of information this morning, just that I'm kind of anticipating "one bright morning" when PM's really shine and POG just sits there steady as she goes above 420 and keeps on creeping higher as the shorts systematically get squeezed by real demand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Well, first time I've seen Thor's name appear in awhile Where in the world is he now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Good Morning Viet Nam, For those of you who are new and don't know me, I used to poost a lot but have been recently pursuing other interests. In the mean time I've been waiting for the gold rally to start in earnest or anywhere for that matter. "The gold rally to start?" you scoff with raised eyebrows. Yes, to start. Back when the gold bull began in Oct Ought Ought gold was really depressed by central bank sales. Miners were priced for bankrupcy. Initially (fot the first year) the rally was fuelled by a real improving gold price and the hopes of a good long rally. After that, the fuel for the continuing rally came from a falling US dollar. But that is not a gold rally, that is a US$ fall. There are certain obvious criteria that would exist in a real gold rally. First of all, (these are going to seem obvious), gold should buy more things. Is it? Well obviously it will buy more US$ but it won't buy more Euros. And compared to the CRB it doesn't look like it will buy more of anything else either. Secondly, due to leverage, miners should be much more expensive, especially compared to the broad market. Are they? Well, no, not really. The HUI has gone sideways with the Ass and Pee for nearly 3 years now. There have been ups and downs but not much really momentum and compared to say 97 the miners are still pretty depressed. And let's face it with inflation (and what's that?) they should be much much more expensive. Costs are going up across the board. Gold needs to really giddy up to improve their profitability. And what would cause gold to do that? Demand, of course. But where will this demand come from? Asians? Moslems? Central banks? Rich investors attempting to protect capital? Well, I don't know. There is one place I'm pretty sure real demand won't originate from and that is the American consumer/investor. Because he is collectively tapped out as a source. The US is absolutely awash in debt. High indebtness does not translate to a good investment climate for gold. Short of a great depression or a massive bank run/currency crisis it is unlikely that any sustained gold rally will commence. It is more likely that gold will continue to meander around until the US begins to default on debt then it should moonshot. But this could well happen from another point of gold depression. Mind you a default is by no means certain. Other outcomes exist. And gold can be manipulated by central banks. In the mean time we grow older. So, don't get too excited by gold and the PMS but its worth keeping an eye on. Thor out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Good to read the musing of Thor.... though not quite what I had hoped. Care to share what area you are directing your trading energies to ? Good to read you again Thor ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Ha ha! Actually I'm still in Jakarta but next week I go to Geneva to try to obtain a position in Geneva, Switzerland so I can be paid in hard currency. (Wink wink) How's tricks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 When I have a spare moment I will expand on what I've been doing. Some may find it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 April gold closing in on some resistance area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Geneva might be a "healthier" decision.. On occassion, think of us here slaving away at the "Salt" mines and say hello. As you follow the Yellow Brick Road, best of fortune and luck to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 round trip complete from notable formation 83.50 area needs to break for 82 to come into play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Ha ha! Actually I'm still in Jakarta but next week I go to Geneva to try to obtain a position in Geneva, Switzerland so I can be paid in hard currency. (Wink wink) How's tricks? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> HI Mighty Thor Be awarned that statistics over here show that Geneva is the dream appointment of all Americans followed by Brussels So competition may be stiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 I doubt demand will come from the American consumer. Course if your buying bullion or miners based upon the American consumer buying more jewelry, then you'll probably be pretty disappointed. No doubt central banks can control prices which may make this a fool's game. Embry's view on what will drive demand. http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 the cloak and dagger thor, clad in the spy outfit was more attractive than the blue fish! demand last time(79-80) didnt come from the present tapped out consumers. But, rather it came from the investor class. most folks were totally unaffected by gold's rise and fall. i dont think this time will be any different. by the time joe 6pack wakes upt to golds rise it will be in the stratesphere! the dolars demise, at this point has attracted buffet, soros, and gates. we dont know if they have interest in the metals. although a few years back buffet bought silver. in other parts of the world, gold/silver has been a store of value forever. east indians, adorn their women in their wealth-gold. most countries have undergone monetary upheavels and have a % of their wealth in the metals. dharma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted February 15, 2005 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 closer view of uncle Buck and the 83.50 area to break or trading range above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 the cloak and dagger thor, clad in the spy outfit was more attractive than the blue fish!demand last time(79-80) didnt come from the present tapped out consumers. But, rather it came from the investor class. most folks were totally unaffected by gold's rise and fall. i dont think this time will be any different. by the time joe 6pack wakes upt to golds rise it will be in the stratesphere! the dolars demise, at this point has attracted buffet, soros, and gates. we dont know if they have interest in the metals. although a few years back buffet bought silver. in other parts of the world, gold/silver has been a store of value forever. east indians, adorn their women in their wealth-gold. most countries have undergone monetary upheavels and have a % of their wealth in the metals. dharma <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Well said. Murphy has some interesting observations on what may drive Silver. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/feb142005.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted February 15, 2005 Report Share Posted February 15, 2005 Ha ha! Actually I'm still in Jakarta but next week I go to Geneva to try to obtain a position in Geneva, Switzerland so I can be paid in hard currency. (Wink wink) How's tricks? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> HI Mighty Thor Be awarned that statistics over here show that Geneva is the dream appointment of all Americans followed by Brussels So competition may be stiff <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thank you for that insight Mighty Ageka. Indeed, it is nearly my dream appointment as well. I'm on cloud 9 (with a silver lining) just thinking about it. Brussels, as an aside is not to be found on any of my clouds however. Luckily the competition for the job appears to be wanting and presumably if I don't actually barf on anyone I'm a shoo-in. The area is even superior to my chosen retirement haunt where I had intended to decamp to if nothing interesting of a work nature had come my way by summer, both places being similar in weather and geography. (The other being the Okanagan Valley of British Columbia Canada for those familiar with it.) Of course for cost of living Swissland is a negative but hey a steady income will help there, then there's the culture, the beer, the wine, etc etc etc. My business is oil and not financials or government (which I presume is why most Americans would end up in the 2 loc'ns you mentioned.) Since there are very few oil companies located in Geneva this is indeed fortune turning its sunny face my way. Later Belgium Dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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