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Pulling The Trigger

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As an option dude, I use days like this (quite infrequent as of late) to play the VIX long and SPX short by buying naked puts with 3-6 months expiries. Spreads and bids have been increasing, despite an SPX that has been relatively stable the past few hours. Great profits t'day so far, eh?

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I think gold has a few more weeks before a real advance. Be careful of a flush before the bounce.

 

As far as the relationship of equities vs the bond. I believe the normal relationship inverted during the crash of '98. Soooo I wouldn't be looking for a reversal back to the norm in the next few weeks. It's just something to keep in the back of your head.

 

int-adv.chart?siteid=mktw&symb=TNX&sid=11420&time=13&freq=2&startdate=&enddate=&comp=&compidx=SP500~3377&ma=0&maval=14&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&style=1013&mocktick=1&rand=696&siteid=mktw.gif

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Guest soup1

Rog: Kia is a company in Korea ( I think); anyway very low priced autos, falls in line with what you were saying re generic cigs and generic food. The consumer is tapped, and is looking for the cheapest alternative.

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Well, I wonder what cheap tricks they will use to try and manufacture another rally here... the old 3 am futures jam? Gap up afterhours like they tried on TXN and the wireless group yesterday? Nothing seems to be working for these bulls...

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Re Tech stocks, TXN, CTXS etc...

 

Once again I suggest you recall or read my post this morning on page 1 of intra-day stool regarding the tech stocks...

 

ITS OVER... repeat... its over... and q1 will be back to "nobody is buying anything, we cant figure it out!!"

 

Which is why the exec's are selling stock now and juicing the shares, because they know the q4 seasonal buying patterns are winding down...

 

See the air pocket I posted on page 1 of morning intra-day stool on the NDX chart... it will be met...

 

thats about 970, yesterday we closed 1120....

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Ford reports 20% sales drop from year ago from Bloomberg. Car sales were down 24%.

 

 

 

"The production cuts will lead anal cysts to lower their earnings estimates, said Deutsche Bank Securities anal cyst Rod Lache. Ford, which today reiterated that it expects to earn 40 cents a share in 2002, was expected to earn 47 cents, the average of anal cysts polled by Thomson First Call. "

 

How does Ford "reiterate" 40 cents when the prior average was .47.

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From interview with Steven Hochberg, of Prechter's group:

 

So simplicity is one of the keys. Think 5?s and 3?s. The completion of a five-wave move always results in at least a three-wave countertrend move or some combination of several three-wave moves. Once a pattern is complete, that?s it, it is over. That is the point in time when a market is ready to embark on a different pattern.

 

This pattern completed yesterday at the 1517 NAS print... which is when I shouted to the world to go short the Q's....

 

1320 should be seen.... we are in wave A of an A B C downard correction right now.... any upward moves should be shorted....

 

Just mho

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