soup Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 BB: Your a party pooper dude. THought it was unanimous, even on a bear board, that real estate can only go higher./// Wndy: Anything behind those headline? Like maybe how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 Attention K Mart Shoppers And Anals Subscribers You are now being automatically redirected to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition when you attempt to access the Anals. All links pointing to the Anals, now point to the WSE-PE. The special subscription prices for Stoolies subscribing through Capitalstool.com will expire TODAY, 2/5/05. All existing Anals subscribers will be grandfathered at their existing rates if you have subscribed by today. When the subscription page is posted on the Wall Street Examiner, the price will be $99 per quarter during the grand opening period, then $129 per quarter. Right NOW is the last chance you will have to subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner - Professional Edition at the current price of $79 per six months. Click here to take advantage of this offer, expiring TODAY! The first time you access the site, you will need to manually enter your log in twice. After that the cookies will be set, and you will be able to get in automatically. If you have forgotten your log in, you can look it up in your Paypal account, if that is how you originally subscribed. If you subscribed via the Stool's direct payment gateway you can retrieve your log in from this page. Articles are now being posted in Examiner PE. I will continue to post articles on the public side of the WSE until we are sure all subscribers can access the password protected WSE PE and for a few weeks until new visitors can be introduced to the content. Look for notification and links to the article postings in the lower left menu of this page. Many tanks for your support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 Australia has a responsible central bank which continued raising rates to dampen inflation, defend the currency, etc. The US has not this since Paul Volcker. That is the difference. As soon as there is any sign of pain in the economy, our CB will stop raising and perhaps pour gas on the fire again. It is what everyone wants. The players, the banks, the government. There is no constituency for deflation/recession. There is a huge constituency for inflation/boom. No one cares about the value of the currency except perhaps the foreigners who hold all the debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brown Suguaro Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 the other side of the real estate boom....or when the bubble bursts...or when the music stops... ....its going to be quite the spectacle. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thank you for all your updates from Australia, Bris.. I appreciate them. I think the dominos will start falling here soon, too, but of course I've been saying that for years. I just can't believe how long things have been able to defy gravity. . Wiley E. Coyote is going to look down soon though, me thinks. Sounds like it's already happening there, and you will soon be proven correct. Keep on keeping us informed, and again, TANKS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 pd: Most everyone would like it to be sunny and 75 everyday. Unfortunately you can not always get what you want. Bill Bonner often states, folks get what they deserve not what they want. Granted this seems to be a forgotten lesson, but just because it has not happened yet does not mean it will not happen. Also, I admit to lacking the bubble gene. However, I just cannnot help go back to 1999 and the same attitude for tech then is the same for residential real estate today. Will this bubble unravel any differently? I certainly do not have the answer, but I have to go with history. Fleck talked about the Japanese mkt in last night's missive. He claimed , when he was short the stock mkt in '89, a very smart friend told him the authorities would never let the mkt fall. At best it would go sideways for a decade to work off the excesses. It puzzles me that the more things change the more they stay the same, the human brain is fascinating . In fact I am reading a book "Phantoms of the Brain" at present. Denial is so very powerful, and a whole host of defense mechanisms can so powerfully overrule basic logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 Long Term Outlook - How High, How Long Denial Flows North Subscribers Only. These articles will be posted to the public side of WSE on Monday. Normally, they would be available only to Anals subscribers. As most of you know, the scientific journal formerly known as the Anals of Stock Proctology is being repackaged as the Wall Street Examiner - Professional Edition. For a limited time, the research and analysis normally available only to subscribers will be available on the public side of the Wall Street Examiner. Check it out via the links in the lower left column. Articles that will be included in the WSE- PE are so noted. Pre-existing Anals subscribers will be grandfathered at their existing subscription price. Your current subscription plan to the Anals is now automatically transfered to the WSE - PE. When the transition is complete, the regular subscription price to the WSE- PE will be $129 quarterly. During the opening period, the subscription price will be $99 quarterly. Any stoolie who subscribes before this offer expires on Saturday will be at the current rate as low as $79 for six months. This offer is only available through Capitalstool.com. To take advantage of this special offer made only to Stoolies and B4thebellers, click the link below. This special offer will expire TODAY. After today, it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 Paul McCulley What bears have forgotten is that Bankers like Sir John Laws can create unlimited amount of paper which is backed by thin air. Last week I read Euro Zone money supply is raising by 6% but rates are paged at 2% that means there is extra 4% inflation. Bankers say something for the public consumptions and do something totally opposite in reality. Doug Noland is impress by ECB?s what they are doing, I hold a different view Central Bankers Job is to inflate and Print much money as market can tolerate. There is no one out there to stop them since Bond Fun managers are in the bed with the Fed. Cash is Trash the other side of the real estate boom....or when the bubble bursts...or when the music stops... ....its going to be quite the spectacle. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thank you for all your updates from Australia, Bris.. I appreciate them. I think the dominos will start falling here soon, too, but of course I've been saying that for years. I just can't believe how long things have been able to defy gravity. . Wiley E. Coyote is going to look down soon though, me thinks. Sounds like it's already happening there, and you will soon be proven correct. Keep on keeping us informed, and again, TANKS ! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 I bet Australian Money supply must be going up. Everyone is doing the same things, long as assets price goes up and don?t show up in RPI then bakers are congratulation them self Job well done. Growth of the money supply in the 12 countries sharing the euro, the European Central Bank's barometer of future inflation, accelerated in December. M3 grew at an annual pace of 6.4 percent after expanding 6 percent in November, the ECB said in a conference call from Frankfurt today. Economists had expected 6.1 percent growth..." January 25 - Bloomberg (James Peng): "Taiwan's money supply growth accelerated in December for the second straight month as borrowing and investment increased, the central bank said. M2, the broadest measure of the island's money supply, rose 7.3 percent from a year earlier after gaining 7 percent in November, the Central Bank of China said... That's the biggest gain in four months. M1A, which tracks net currency in circulation plus checking accounts and passbook deposits, expanded 14.8 percent last month..." Malaysia's broadest measure of money in circulation expanded at a faster pace in December as bank lending rose and consumers increased spending during the year-end festive season. M3, the most closely watched measure of money supply, rose 12.4 percent in December from a year earlier..." http://www.safehaven.com/article-2524.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 the contrarian in me wonders if everybody can be correct? I would argue 95% of folks are long the inflation trade ( long assets, very long debt), can all these folks be rewarded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intertrader888 Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 RMB no scapegoat for US woes http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2...tent_415358.htm Time for USD to rebound, at least for intermediate term. Budge deficit has to be cut, economy will be entering another recession; Buy bond, ten year is heading to 3.5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 If Fed hikes the rates to 5%, then it will be breakout. http://www.safehaven.com/article-2550.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 Bill Bonner has been dead wrong for decades. He has been awarded the stopped clock award many times. Fleck also has nothing much to be proud of from his record during the 90's. At some point a rational person steps back from it all and says that what he believes is not working. Not after a year, maybe a decade. I believe the deflation folks will be proven wrong, at least for a long time. Look at Hypertiger. Sitting up in Calgary in a rented apartment waiting for the apocalypse. For years, now decades. With a stack of silver coins and a gun. Something is wrong with this picture. The world goes on. Inflation has constituents, deflation has none. Inflation will be created until every tool is used up and no more can be created. We aren't there yet. 4 months ago I was told on this board that only a fool would buy houses or land in Vegas, in Phoenix. All kinds of cute "you'll be sorry" talk about no water, no toilets being able to flush, depression, lack of jobs, etc. Guess what? Had I followed that advice I would have bought some gold coins, sold my house and rented and waited for the apocalypse. Instead I went out and bought another house. So far it is up $66K in price, and it has yet to be completed. The one I live in is up $100K. I'm sure glad I didn't sell out and rent as advised. Sometimes you have to go with what works. At least for now. I don't believe the perma bear case works. People may feel self righteous about their bearishness, but if it is making you lose money year after year, decade after decade, a rational person adapts. I may lose my ass on my "investment". If so, so be it. Until then, it sure feels better being on the right side of a trade just for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 pd: No argument about the constiutency for inflation. Which by they way is quite paradoxical. After all deflation rewards folks with a higher standard of living, where as inflation is guilty of grand larcency. After all deflation means one 's purchasing power increases. But the question I have to ask is will the vast majority, who are long the inflation trade be proven correct? As far as Fleck I have yet to meet anyone who has been more spot on in terms of inflection points, early yes, but more often than not proven correct. Prime examples are the Japanses mkt and the tech bust. I would argue very few ever make money in residential real estate, because they never sell, and if they do sell they often trade up. After all nothing is a gain until it is realized. Just rambling thoughts, after all maybe folks buying residential real estate now will end up on top of the world? Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 This time could be entirely different, who knows, but residential real estate sure looks like the tech mkt in 98 and 99; maybe we are at 4000 on the nasdog on ouw way to 5000? IF we are will it matter if one sold at 4000, or 5000 knowing that it is going to 1500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted February 5, 2005 Report Share Posted February 5, 2005 HRFF: "I eat more chicken than any man ever saw." source: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20050...gbowlwinner.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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