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Predicting The Weather


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From my beloved DUH! book by Bob Fenster:

 

A British doctor devised the leech storm-warning system in 1851. His weather-analysis device consisted of a jar filled with leeches and a bell. When a storm approached, he predicted, the leeches would turn active, ringing the bell.

 

The doctor's idea was to establish a series of leech warning stations along Britain's coast. The government turned down the deal.

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Reuters

Fannie Mae Net Income Falls Over 50 Pct

Wednesday January 15, 7:31 am ET

 

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News), the largest home financing company, on Wednesday said its quarterly earnings fell more than 50 percent as options it uses to protect itself from interest-rate swings lost value.

 

Excluding the unrealized losses from the derivatives...

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SG dings in

 

Wave 3 is nigh my friends. You have ONE LAST CHANCE to enter into aggressive indice short positions. This chance will come as the NAS will be the FINAL indice to top out in wave 2, and its usually the last to bottom as well.

 

This NDX should make one more final stab towards 1117-1122, possibly today or tomorrow. In addition, QQQ 27.65 to 27.78 range is likely intra-day mind you...

 

SG remains 200% short from 27.10 print on FRiday morning last week. Not much has changed since... upside momentum is waning.

 

Intel news is a done deal. At a bare minimum, you will get "profit taking" excuses over the next several trading days.

 

Then... reality will settle in as orders get cancelled in q1, and cap spending is not materializing, the consumer is paying off debt, and the market realizes WE IS OVERVALUED WEEZY

 

See ya soon at 25.57 on the Q's.... probably early next week...

 

One word of caution. If my upper limits are exceeded, I cover...

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Excerpt from last nights comments from my boys over at comstock capital partners... some of the savviest money managers on the planet

 

In our view the economy is continuing to reflect the weakness we expected with the bursting of the late 1990s bubble and the resulting structural imbalances. The problem is that the economists who think they have the answers (Keynesians and supplysiders) don?t understand the problem while the economists who understand the problem (the Austrian school) don?t have the answers. At the same time investors remain bullish (see all the year-end financial magazines) and market valuations are near record high levels. This is a highly combustible mix with the potential for a huge market decline.

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SG suggests everyone look at this chart on the NAS

 

Final leg "e" of my A B C mini corrective ending wave 2 rally is nigh folks. I have warned of this the last few days. We should make one final mini push up to complete this BEARISH WEDGE, with a complete reversal beginning immediately thereafter IMO. The chart below maps out the NAS over last few weeks of the Wave 2 rally... she is running out of steam.

 

The only alternate count is if its an ABC-X ABC-X type deal.... I dont see that as likely... but its possible. In the meantime, Im bearish short term especially when my cited 1475, NDX 1117-1122, and QQQ 27.65-27.78 are hit intra-day and hold and reverse...

post-3-1042637065.gif

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Final note of morning for awhile

 

I have said repeatedly recently that the US DOllar is at or near a Wave 5 bottom, and will begin a multi month rally....

 

Meaning... with Gold small time speculators at 9 year bullish sentiment highs, and Commercial traders are 9 year short highs, something will give.

 

I will be buying Gold jr miner stocks probably in March sometime... I would buy puts here if you own them to marry your stock, or sell them...

 

... thats all folks, I could be wrong...

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http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/current.html

 

Sales.. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments (excluding semiconductors) for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were estimated at $835.0 billion, up 0.3 percent (?0.2%) from October and were up 3.5 percent (?0.3%) from November 2001.

 

Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories (excluding semiconductors) adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,136.0 billion, up 0.2 percent (?0.1%) from October, and up 0.6 percent (?0.3%) from November 2001.

 

Inventories/Sales Ratio.. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of November was 1.36. The November 2001 ratio was 1.40.

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On this day in ?

 

* 1870, the Democratic Party was represented as a donkey for the first

time in a cartoon by Thomas Nast in Harper's Weekly.

 

* 1943, work was completed on the Pentagon, now the headquarters of the

U.S. Department of Defense

 

* 1967, the Green Bay Packers of the National Football League defeated

the Kansas City Chiefs of the American Football League in the first

Super Bowl, 35-10.

 

* 1973, President Nixon announced the suspension of all U.S. offensive

action in North Vietnam, citing progress in peace negotiations.

 

 

 

Yesterday was the anniversary from the '80's of $800 gold.

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