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Kathie Lee Gifford (intc)

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Mark?s Market Commentary ? January 14, 2003


Sorry for the wait, but I wanted to wait for the INTC results. INTC is the oldest Supermodel. The Kathie Lee Gifford of the group. Still has an awesome rack and is fairly thin, but too many hopers are still dreaming about the Kathie Lee from 20 years ago doing the Carnival Cruise commercials when she looked extra juicy. Now she?s full of stretch markets and plastic. Looks good from a distance, but when you stand close, she looks like a Michael Jackson plastic surgery accident.


Will the speculators get the horrid view up close? Or will they continue to dream from afar?


Not much action after hours, looks like INTC bounced a little and the equips sold off on the measly capex number. Data is still spotty on Island. Can?t get reliable quotes.


Credit problems are starting to surface again. Seems like the aircraft leases could present some problems for the bag holders. UAL is playing hardball, offering only 30 to 50 cents on the dollar in its equipment lease negotiations. If the lenders won?t accept the terms, then they repossess the planes and take their chances in a soft used airplane market. Pitney Bowes, John Hancock, Edison, and Disney are some of the non-financial players who invested heavily in these leases for tax advantages.


?The setbacks could just be beginning for other creditors, depending on what happens with United. If United can pull off all of what it wants to do with its aircraft leases, it could be Armageddon out there for anybody who has an airplane under lease to one of United?s competitors.?


Once again, the risk players thought that credit default risk was conveniently ejected into outer space. Instead, they are going to be confronted with an asteroid attack.


?A number of people who entered this business in the 1990?s, thinking that these structured financial instruments eliminated the risks, are finding that was in ill-considered conclusion?, says Moody?s.


We have also documented the fact that the entire globe?s ?non-manufacturing? GDP is now wired directly to daytrading tech stocks, especially the SOX:


Junior X-Box gamers running Europe?s worst mutual funds are now HeatMapping their way out of the hole in order to ?catch up? from horrendous losses the last 3 years.


According to The Wall Struck Journal:


?The Euromobiliare Hi Tech Equity Fund, which lost 76.5% the last three years, is ready to take the plunge in European tech shares. Alessandro Grande, the 31-year old fund manager, says ?I try to do my best to survive?. The fund is currently 79% invested in U.S. stocks, 10% in Japan, 8% in cash, and 3% in Europe.?


We?ll see how far that 8% cash position can go to push up the likes of Alcatel (ALA), one stock heavily HeatMapped today. Note the 79% weighting in U.S. stocks, denominated in U.S Pesos.


Today?s Action


Yesterday?s high volume ?Gap and Trap? needed to be retested on lighter volume. So Da Boyz jammed it up today and held their distribution sale, offloading positions to all the INTC hopers.


Gold and silver stocks were hit hard based on some type of rumor regarding Saddam being exiled. What a joke that is. The planet still hasn?t figured out that it?s the ocean of dollars and the Multilevel Marketing Pyramid which is driving the price of gold and silver up, not war fears.


With the dollar trading at record lows, gold refusing to fall below $350, and the gold and silver shares trading as if gold was going back to $300 is quite a divergence. The end of the week will probably present the last major buying opportunity in these shares, as long as $330 gold price holds.


Once again, classic bull market behavior in action. Widespread fear of lower gold prices, and quick profit taking on the rallies. Selloffs are sharp, and the rallies are quiet and sneaky.


The Dow and the Nasdaq were squeezed up to close at the highs of the day, with the Nasdaq closing yet again at a .53 TRIN.


Buddha was watching from the sidelines:


?Gold being bitched down into good base off 10/15 minute. Should get more selling after INTC report and then sometime tommorrow, buying metal would be good rotation play. Why? Because it?s been down 3 straight days running. No other reason. Looking for nice blow off action following INTC and into important time turn tommorrow.?


?Real question now is the speculation by insider traders on whether or not the Sodomizer of Bahgdad is going to take a buyout deal of his Murder Incorporated operation. Jack 'Lex Luther' Welch, Larry 'the tick' Kudlow and Porky Pig Cramer have all floated offers. Welch has proposed the manual services of his mistress and wife to be, but she?s a bit long in the tooth for the Iraqi lush. Kudlow has promised 3 kilos of the best white powder this side of Bogota, 2 more once defection is made public. Cramer is peddling some AOL shares and a position on the board along with an appearance once a month on CrapVision.?


?Saddam is no fool. He wants a weekend alone with the heavily mammaried M. Barfaromo, a dungeon suspension and whipping from L. LaRoche and some day old panty thongs from Emma. If he does bite early, this thing is going into Oklahoma Land Rush stage and shorts won't be able to find any diapers left in discount aisle at Costco. This is what I love about the Markets. 'Experts' are made fools of on a daily basis.?


Model Analcyst Portfolios for 2003


Unfortunately, ApeWoman was spared by Barron?s this year, and did not have to recommend a 2003 portfolio. So we will continue to monitor the 2002 ?Planet of the Apes? portfolio.


Three other Analcysts provided their top 5 picks. The starting point will be last Friday?s close.


John Neff?s ?Housing Bubble and Finance Portfolio?




Barton Biggs ?Tech Wreck? Portfolio




Scott Black?s ?Dartboard Portfolio?




Position Summary:


Trimmed a few gold and silver stock positions. Waiting to buy back at lower prices.


Still expecting a intraday spike this week to load shorts.


We are 36% short, 24% long, 40% cash.


Half Short:


MBI at $50

KLAC at $41

CYMI at $39

NVLS at $35

INTC at $18


Quarter Short:


FRE at $68

KBH at $49

LEN at $56

COCO at $40

NCEN at $28


Full Long:


GG at $11 Sold half at $12

HL at $4.55 Sold half at $4.65


Half Long:


BGO at $1.31

PAAS at $5

DROOY at $3.35

GLG at $9

GSS at $1.72

SIL at $15.50 Sold at $15.50

WHT at $1.05

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Speaking of Emma, she was on Crapvision early this morning. She had got into the studio late after an away game. With only seconds remaining before her camera call, she had no time to even check her hair, much less apply any make-up.


Now Emma is an eye-popping woman, but her face this morning looked a little ... well, plain. (Ooof .. that was hard to type.)


EARTH TO EMMA: if you're reading this, love, mind the mascara/eyeliner/lipstick thing. It only takes minutes to do, but it does a million quid worth of good for you.

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The entire day focused on INTC's earnings announcement.


They beat the street with revenue of 7.16 billion but announced CAPEX spending of around 3.5-3.9 billion which was below estimates which is currently tanking KLAC, NVLS and AMAT in after hours.


Also, INTC estimated revenue for the first quarter at 6.5-7 billion.


This represents absolutely NO revenue growth at all...


INTC is being heatmapped in after hours trading. With the revenue estimates so lean, it will not last.


Also, what are the chances that INTC ends up having to warn?


I would be willing to bet that, within 2 months, they warn that revenue will be 6-6.5 billion.


After all, who is buying computers?

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Thanks Mark and congratulations on the KLAC and NVLS moves.


Already calming down after hours so everything may be smoothed over by tomorrow. Hope and trust are still the watchwords. ?Intel Reports Higher Profit?


Watching those super girls tomorrow will be interesting. Do they recover? Do they sink? Do they lead the way?


MSFT reports after tomorrow and that could be your spike excuse on Thursday.


Saddam? Popular guy. Think he would be like a snail out of its shell in exile. Dead.

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I did us proud today. I had an interview with the local paper and told em' how it is, to a degree. :grin: Can't scare everybody just yet. They ain't ready for that YET.


I just hope i don't get misquoted when it's released.

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Some reasons why we're close to a top:


















See the threads maked as IMPORTANT in my forum for explanations of these charts.




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Vesselin: I gather there is an old Bulgarian saying.


"If you can't serve, you can't rule".


As usual you have served us well.


For what it's worth I also think we are very close

to an excellent shorting opportunity. The big crap

Nasdaq is looking decidedly toppy.

The further this runs the better the opportunity.


On gold: refer attached Gold versus DOW chart. :)




Gold what an opportunity!

Having said that I read somewhere that the BPI

on gold is something like 80%?


So I am waiting for a better buying opportunity

- hopefully I will get one!

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maybe the market is smelling the chibear scenario from IDS today - an unexpected peaceful resolution to Saddam/Iraq that drops oil prices significantly. (never mind the removal of a large amount of government-printing-press economic stimulus due to lack of a war) I can remember a day when yet another no-growth outlook for a 40-pe stock meant it got BEAT DOWN after hours. Not now.

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Butt, I'm not aware of such (or similar) Bulgarian saying - but thanks for the nice words. :rolleyes:


There is no BPI for the gold indexes. It wouldn't make sense anyway, because both HUI and XAU have only very few members and such a BPI would be very "spiky". See the discussion about a proposed BPI for the SOX in my forum. Perhaps we could construct a gold BPI involving all gold mining stocks with sufficiently large volume - but it would be too much work to keep it up-to-date.


The only measures for gold sentiment that I am aware of are:


1) The COT reports. It seems that the speculative traders are very Long there. But they aren't necessarily wrong.


2) CEF's premium to NAV. Currently 13.68; used to be above 25 at the May top.


3) The total assets of RYPMX. Currently around 125, close to where it was at the May top, but lower than the value at which it was on December 31.


Basically, all these things are somewhat bearish and suggest a correction - although they aren't inconsistent (love this greenspanism!) with more upside. What bothers me more is the multiple Sell signals on the daily charts of most gold miners...


Pigeon, "heat mapping" means chasing the stocks that have had best performance in the very near past (the last few days). They are easily located with the help of a heat map like this one.


Anyway, I'm going home now; it's 11:25 pm here.




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