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Everyone knows by now "Its Over".

 

Yep, the Alice In Wonderland Marriage of Brad Pitt and Jennifer Anniston.

 

What a colossal waste of money that wedding was.

 

Only 4 years ago.

 

People Magazine is rushing out this week's edition 4 days early in order to exploit this World Breaking News.

 

I guess the entire planet of Drama Queens will be rushing to the supermarket checkout to grab their copy and read up on all the gory details.

 

Wonder what will happen if the stock market breaks off?

 

Will The Wall Struck Journal, the Crapvision Shills, Barron's rush out an early edition, titled "Stock Market is Headed Lower!!! Its Over!"

 

I doubt it.

 

Nothing else to report today, other than the usual High Anxiety.

 

Markets were stuck in a range all day, with 9000 HedgeFunds attempting to game the next direction.

 

Another leg down?

 

Or will AA and YHOO "beat by a penny" tonight and send things back up?

 

Billions under management is at stake.

 

Every HedgeFund must be a winner by the 01/31/05 statement print.

 

No losers allowed.

 

No more 2004 lackluster performance.

 

Now, more than ever, the Herd will run even tighter this year.

 

No wonder the HGX was in Full Meltup Mode, yet everything else was standing still or grinding lower. The Herd could only find green movement in one sector.

 

Watching and Waiting.

 

Millions of nervous hands, ready to click "Buy" or "Sell" in an instant, based on the upcoming Yearnings News.

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M2Mers will not be surprised by this:

 

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Hedge fund returns lagged several benchmark equity indexes in 2004 ... according to two firms that track industry performance.

 

The Van Global Hedge Fund Index, which tracks about 350 hedge funds, gained 1.6 percent in December, bringing gains for last year to 7.8 percent, Van Hedge Fund Advisors International said Monday in a statement.

 

The Hennessee Hedge Fund Index, which follows 730 funds, rose 2.1 percent in December for a gain of 8.3 percent in 2004, Hennessee Group LLC said.

 

The U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 10.9 percent in 2004, while the MSCI World Equity Index advanced 12.8 percent, Van said.

 

Leveraged Losers

 

For those who didn't get the memo yet: Hedge Funds are an overcrowded field. Pumping too much capital into an oversupplied market cuts returns.

 

So far, the underperformance of 2 or 3% can be attributed to the fat fees and endless commissions that the HedgeHogs take to churn money.

 

But as the yield curve flattens and favorite HedgeHog playgrounds such as emerging market and junk bonds turn bad, the underperformance is going to widen into a bloody chasm.

 

With extremely rare exceptions, Hedge Funds are for fashion-chasing losers, particularly brain-dead institutions. Look elsewhere.

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Every HedgeFund must be a winner by the 01/31/05 statement print.

 

XLF sell by Jan. 31

IAH sell by Jan. 31

IIH sell by Jan. 31

TTH sell by Jan. 31

RKH sell by Jan. 31

HHH sell by Jan. 31

PPH sell by Jan. 31

IYW sell by Jan. 31

IGM sell by Jan. 31

IXN sell by Jan. 31

XLK sell by Jan. 31

MTK sell by Jan. 31

 

Stock Traders Alamanac....

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Shorty ain't the only one feelin' his oats...

 

Roach's latest: The Sure-Thing Syndrome

 

"In the end, denial is usually the only thing left. "

 

"Financial markets hardly seem concerned over this impending collision."

 

"There can be no mistaking the absence of risk aversion in most segments of world financial markets."

 

"Market chatter is laced with impeccable logic as to why it still pays to buy risk. In most cases, the arguments rest on perceptions of ?improved fundamentals.?"

 

"That impression is evident across the risk spectrum, from high-yield to investment-grade companies. A similar verdict has been rendered with respect to emerging markets -- long the most crisis-prone segment of world financial markets."

 

"A personal saving rate that has plunged to zero is widely dismissed as irrelevant"

 

" Courtesy of its post-equity bubble containment strategy, the Fed has taken the carry trade to an unprecedented extreme, with one bubble begetting another. "

 

 

The Sure Thing Syndrome

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I concur. I'm seeing the handwriting in blood on the latrine wall. No more easy money long in this Pig Market. The reallocation out of 'growth' last week by the huge behemoths probably spells an end to the 2 year semen spurt. Unless they program themselves to come in heavy and buy at 1850 or 1900 levels.

 

Now the question is where are they rotating their money to. Cash may be king for awhile if interest rate policy is once again up,up and away. Why bother with the Casino if in doing nothing and risking nothing you can still collect interest?

 

Look at all the hand holding and prevarication in Green Bay today. They are blindly loyal to the end and still hold to the myth of a 35 year old quarterback who just tanked the offense with 4 interceptions on misreads,bombs and prayers. Human nature is such that denial is alot more comfortable a position than change.

 

Anyone have a good take on where the Pig Money will rotate to next? What didn't get action last year? buddha

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