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Daily Digger - Wednesday Dec. 15, '04


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One step at a time....

After a steep downtrend from a high there will be a point where supply dries up and there will be a cause building retrace. Usually there will be some form or retest of the lows - or a good indication will be a spring of the low. It's normally a good idea to buy the first retest.

 

The pictures....

Look at the chart of lumber for an example

http://www.ltg-trading.com/20041214.pdf

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Charmin:

 

Here's a count for NEM that is very bearish. It counts 5 waves down already completed. It says we are in wave 2 up. The next wave will be 3 down--usually the most powerful and destructive wave. The apparent bullishness of this bear flag has us retracing into the 38% zone. I hasten to add that it is not my "best fit" count , but an alternate count.

 

Here's my Monday count for XAU. This puts us in wave iv of 1. Troublesome as it is, it could be an abc complete and my bear flag could be the start of a new rally. Moreover, the rally over the last 5 days is so weak that it's more consistent with a fourth wave.

 

Paradoxically, the technically stonger stock has a more bearish pattern and vice versa.

 

Can your Wycoff charts reconcile this or must we await price action?

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post-1352-1103090234.png

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....grinchie didn't squiggle under the floorboards....with the others...waz busy establishing a new means of production....would like to share an important lesson for loonie-bears like me......who truely see ....what might be....

....stop invoicing corporations and real-estate businesses....or you might eat that receivables sheet...shift to cash businesses...that provide inelastic nescessities...(food, health, home-services to a greying crowd)....read my signature....if you're not trading with casino money...this game's not for you.....

 

....grinchie sees current doldrums as a nasty fakeout....good-luck to all....

 

...still locked and loaded (oh-hum) ....and excited (when not sleeping) about this bull.....

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Buy Signals

The Great Shakeout Ending, Or Just Pausing?

 

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Charmin:

 

Here's a count for NEM that is very bearish. It counts 5 waves down already completed. It says we are in wave 2 up. The next wave will be 3 down--usually the most powerful and destructive wave. The apparent bullishness of this bear flag has us retracing into the 38% zone. I hasten to add that it is not my "best fit" count , but an alternate count.

 

Here's my Monday count for XAU. This puts us in wave iv of 1. Troublesome as it is, it could be an abc complete and my bear flag could be the start of a new rally. Moreover, the rally over the last 5 days is so weak that it's more consistent with a fourth wave.

 

Paradoxically, the technically stonger stock has a more bearish pattern and vice versa.

 

Can your Wycoff charts reconcile this or must we await price action?

 

NEM 43 is the trading range low retest - and between 43 and 50 anything can happen. Lets see if we can see some wide range with demand up now. We could make it up to a .618 retrace at 47. Afterwards maybe we'll see it drift back on lighter volume again.

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fwiw, the action since the low,xau, looks, at this point, like a bear flag. still think we need a retest of the lows before a meaningful rally can take place. the dolar still looks sick dharma

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