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Daily Digger - Monday November 22, '04


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You think we can see POG 450 this week or do we need a pullback first?

 

Probably one of the most profound statements I read this week is about financial security... and we know that Sir Al has already warned us.... now the politicians can give and take away.....because the reality from this day forward will most likely kick us in the behind pretty soon...

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/posts/dancy/diner.html

 

"We live in an age when a lot of promises regarding retirement are going to be broken. Just how they are broken, and what replaces them, will have profound effects on the future of the industrial nations that have dominated the world economy in the last century. What is at stake is a reversal of perhaps the most important economic trend in developed countries since World War II, that of guaranteeing financial security for their citizens."

 

That means the little supplement most are counting on just vanished....

 

another looser very soon...

"By the end of last year, Asian central banks held $1.89 trillion of foreign reserves, the vast bulk of them in dollars. If these reserves lost value, Asian economies would suffer an almighty capital loss in domestic-currency terms."

 

You know what - I was expecting $490 by the end of the year back in January, but we may be overbought against crude at the moment. Looking at the ratio chart it may be crude's turn for another few weeks. Just pure speculation of course.... though I believe we are long overdue to see that figure.

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NEM:

 

There's a case to be made that NEM has seen it's highs.

 

Here's my count. My sub-daily charts say that NEM may still try to challenge the upper trendline. It has a 3 wave movement over the last 2 weeks. It could expand to 5, or the challenge could be wave 2 down action. Friday's action is consistent with an incomplete correction of a minor degree, so a rally into micro b or 2 off Thursday's lows is not unexpected.

 

The violation of the sharp rising trendline of the last 2 weeks, and the P.P.O. rollover indicate that trend has changed. Stochastics may be poised to give a sell signal, depending on today's action.

 

The Accumulation/Distribution overlay indicates thet the rally is fostering distribution.

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Bearvest,

 

Many thanks for your charts and comments (very much appreciated by this TA beginner).

 

OldMan

 

NEM:

 

There's a case to be made that NEM has seen it's highs.

 

Here's my count. My sub-daily charts say that NEM may still try to challenge the upper trendline. It has a 3 wave movement over the last 2 weeks. It could expand to 5, or the challenge could be wave 2 down action. Friday's action is consistent with an incomplete correction of a minor degree, so a rally into micro b or 2 off Thursday's lows is not unexpected.

 

The violation of the sharp rising trendline of the last 2 weeks, and the P.P.O. rollover indicate that trend has changed. Stochastics may be poised to give a sell signal, depending on today's action.

 

The Accumulation/Distribution overlay indicates thet the rally is fostering distribution.

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"We live in an age when a lot of promises regarding retirement are going to be broken. Just how they are broken, and what replaces them, will have profound effects on the future of the industrial nations that have dominated the world economy in the last century. What is at stake is a reversal of perhaps the most important economic trend in developed countries since World War II, that of guaranteeing financial security for their citizens."

 

It is not the function of government to provide security for the citizins it controls. Never has, never will be. For that reason BTW, deflation is not an option. Never has, never will be.

 

One other point: If the central bank of China has a gazillion dollars in its hands, then it really is immaterial, for the chinese citizens, wether the dollar goes to zero or not. The CB never paid a cent for those dollars, it printed paper-tickets and turned around and invested the dollars in US bonds to stabilize the exchange rate. These paper-tickets (yuan) are already circulating and are creating price inflation - which is not compensated by a higher exchange rate. The destruction of financial security is already underway.

 

It actually would be beneficial for the chinese citizens for the dollar to go to zero, as those dollars in the CB's coffers can be used as security for government borrowing in international credit markets - and every penny government borrows and spends is again financial destruction.

 

 

regards

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Bumps in the Short Run

 

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Will here same themes-

 

1. Gold will hit 500 and possibly 600 IMO by end of FEB. Silver even better!

2. EDV---EDVMF------Is a good value ----still

3. Want to own Nevada Gold Mines esp those headquarted in C$

1 Best----MAD still

2 Nevada Gold----Name and PROVEN management.

3 GPXM----Smaller

 

Do not own but check KDX

 

G/L----Anyone disagree would love to hear why

 

Loonie going to minimum Parity!

 

Disc---Own all stocks and loonie.

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Will here same themes-

 

1.  Gold will hit 500 and possibly 600 IMO by end of FEB.  Silver even better!

2.  EDV---EDVMF------Is a good value ----still

3.  Want to own Nevada Gold Mines esp those headquarted in C$

    1 Best----MAD still

    2 Nevada Gold----Name and PROVEN management.

    3 GPXM----Smaller

 

    Do not own but check KDX

 

G/L----Anyone disagree would love to hear why

 

Loonie going to minimum Parity!

 

Disc---Own all stocks and loonie.

 

 

The whole Cortez hills project in Nevada has become an area play. Some gold fund magaers are of the opinion that it is a good thing to own miners who costs are in USD and whose mines are also within the USA.

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