jickiss Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 jickiss is back! and Dean anotherone: Thank you for your kind words in re Goog. jickiss thinks that goog did not advance to quite the exact number that jickiss expected, (around 207, jickiss seems to think was the expected top) but it was fairly close. The top was, however, very clear as it formed, the issue was the outsized options premiums, in terms of making any real coin). jickiss does not have a Trade Station. but, jickiss has a theory in re goog. It could be checked on a Trade Station, or on an equivalent platform; to wit, one must examine the number of days that CRA spent from its emergence to its peak, versus what goog has done, since it came public. the comparison of the time ratios (days of advance for CRA and goog, ratio basis, to respective tops, from breakout zones) will tell us if goog is finished, or not. secondly, look what happened to CRA after it started down....does the same fate await goog? The two companies are equivalent, to jickiss, in that each can do everything (the genome and the net search), but the results are basically fleeting. ps, by the way, Marky Mark's observations on the Earls is most excellent. Today, in Philly, jickiss saw that the prices for gasoline are up quiet a bit at, for instance, Sunoco gasoline stations. SUN. Perhaps we are at the beginning of very high gasoline prices for years. Peak Earl is for real. Payback time is here for them that ate the gasoline refining margins, for the Lection. But the Earl company Charts were run too high by the sheeple....trade the Earls carefully, here, for sure. regards to all! jickiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Dollar could bottom short term anywhere from right here down to 80 or so. This looks like the capitulation phase for this move down. Too many Dollar bears now. We could go lower but I wouldn't press it. Also getting into serious resistance Gold 435-450. The 450 level is the bottom of the decline off 850 in 1980. Going much higher long term but so much has been made of 432 I think we get some latecomers caught in the door really soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Dollar could bottom short term anywhere from right here down to 80 or so. This looks like the capitulation phase for this move down. Too many Dollar bears now. We could go lower but I wouldn't press it. Also getting into serious resistance Gold 435-450. The 450 level is the bottom of the decline off 850 in 1980. Going much higher long term but so much has been made of 432 I think we get some latecomers caught in the door really soon. I agree I fear a sharp dollar rally soon which would ruin the gold party for a while and I fear this stock rally is not over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Sterling is strong in relation to the Dollar but Gold has been even stronger than Sterling in the last 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Gold can remain strong despite "paper" strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 I fear a sharp dollar rally soon which would ruin the gold party for a while and I fear this stock rally is not over Shorty, If Buck rallies I think the stock market will tank. The equity market and gold loves a weak dollar. Bare in mind, if you're based in Euroland or England you're not loving the weak dollar. US markets were basically flat in Euro terms today. Dollar weakness has prompted some international investors to start dumping US Dollars. It's a game of musical chairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeakOil Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 jickiss is back! and (Like a horse wearing blinkers, jickiss makes too many typing mistakes. sorry. when gg:$gold ratio = .1000, then, gg will trade at $100 per share, when gold is at $1,000 the Troy oz. That is Exactly what should be in da Form.) in another direction, why was the 10 year down early this morning by over One Whole Point??? this action in da Zombie was an eeerrrie reflection of Doc's interest rate observations, bestowed upon da world at zero cost last night. jickiss thinks that those free anals got somebody's brain's rattled. now, when jickiss thinks about that last sentence, jickiss is reminded of a True Story, from back at jickiss' days at the Wharton School. It was a finance class, taught by a real PhD who actually wrote one of the first books on Modern Portfolio Theory. A student, who was having some difficulties with the Math and Statistics that were needed to do well in the Finance Course, asked Dr. ______, "Dr. _______, what is Wrong with me and my buddies here???? You, Dr. ______, are so smart and capable in Math, how do you do it....it does not seem Fair to us....Why are you so Smart in Math???" Please Tell us, Dr. _____, please Tell us why you are so Smart...." Dr. ____ just stared for a brief second, and then realized that the question, despite is "Track Crybabish tone," was genuine. Then, Dr._____ said the following: "Class, for the rest of your lives, remember one thing. In the Human Being, the Brains are Located in the ASS. When you sit down on a good hard chair, and your Ass starts to Sweat, as you study Math and Statistics with your Eyes, under a light, that means that your Brain is actually learning. This provides evidence to you that your Brain is actually working. The Brain is Located in the Ass. Work it, and you will do well in your courses, and in life. You may even learn Math." See.....Doc is always right!!! regards to all! jickiss Classic Jickiss! Many Tanks for your stories and wise observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 re; possibilities of doolar rally...saw this on BBC this eve... ------------ The euro is now 57% above its all-time low against the dollar of 82 cents from October, 2000. French President Jacques Chirac said he was "a little bit worried about the weakness of the dollar". Speaking at a summit of European leaders in Brussels he hinted that the European Union should take action. "This should provoke certain reactions on our part," he said. ------------ On the other hand, there are the semi-recent comments out of europe that they're ok with strong euro...makes oil/commods cheaper for 'em, etc.. Plus, econ. is worsening there....which has to hit their imports from us....don't know if the amount of drop is big enough to matter, but all these little shifts worsen our trade-deficit even more. Fallujah...gotta end up a bloody mess.....gotta interfere with easy agreements with Europe....on -anything-. I'm of mixed mind about how firm a doolar bounce we'll see this particular time around... jickiss: thanks much for the reply...helps. and maxxi, et al, tanks for the charts and notes. good education. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 ps, by the way, Marky Mark's observations on the Earls is most excellent. Today, in Philly, jickiss saw that the prices for gasoline are up quiet a bit at, for instance, Sunoco gasoline stations. SUN. Perhaps we are at the beginning of very high gasoline prices for years. Peak Earl is for real. Payback time is here for them that ate the gasoline refining margins, for the Lection. But the Earl company Charts were run too high by the sheeple....trade the Earls carefully, here, for sure. regards to all! jickiss So much for future trade sanctions. From Jim Sinclair, registration needed? The President of the USA said two correct things today: Firstly, that Americans have spoken and, secondly, that his administration has received a firm mandate from the people. He has earned political capital in this election and he intends to use it - there can be no argument with that. There is, however, at least one significant implication contained herein that the market - most certainly the equity markets - have largely missed. There is an axiom in human relations that says there is always a third party motivator between two aggressive combatants. This axiom has proven itself true from the time of the Stone Age until today. The hidden third party motivator behind the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is Iran. In proper detective work, it always pays to follow the money trail and in political conflict you always try to determine who benefits the most. Iran has had two major competitors removed from the world stage in the form of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. Their removal was not at any cost to Iran and the Coalition of the Willing (Bullied?) took care of it for them. There has been significant commentary on Mr. Chalabi as being an Iranian agent and helping to bring about this result. Others characterize Mr. Chalabi as a great salesman and buffoon who simply said what the US wanted to hear. I prefer the Iranian agent theory as the most plausible explanation. The result, however, is the same whatever Mr. Chalabi really is. It is now becoming clear why Iran has had the audacity to stand up to the world on the nuclear issue. Having succeeded in eliminating both of its major enemies at not cost, Iran has accepted the economic overtures of Russia and China. Economic investment in an area carries with it an implicit promise of military protection for those investments - especially when the investor is a superpower like Russia or China. Both these countries have a great deal to gain from this relationship. For Russia, it fits in perfectly with the ascendancy of the ruble over the US dollar and the reversal of the Volcker affect which caused communism in Russia to fail. In the case of the Chinese, its appetite for oil could be satiated if the theocracy of Iran ends up the power broker in the Middle East. China Rocks The Geopolitical Boat TEHRAN - Speaking of business as unusual. A mere two months ago, the news of a China-Kazakhstan pipeline agreement, worth US$3.5 billion, raised some eyebrows in the world press, some hinting that China's economic foreign policy may be on the verge of a new leap forward. A clue to the fact that such anticipation may have totally understated the case was last week's signing of a mega-gas deal between Beijing and Tehran worth $100 billion. Billed as the "deal of century" by various commentators, this agreement is likely to increase by another $50 billion to $100 billion, bringing the total close to $200 billion, when a similar oil agreement, currently being negotiated, is inked not too far from now. The gas deal entails the annual export of some 10 million tons of Iranian liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a 25-year period, as well as the participation, by China's state oil company, in such projects as exploration and drilling, petrochemical and gas industries, pipelines, services and the like. The export of LNG requires special cargo ships, however, and Iran is currently investing several billion dollars adding to its small LNG-equipped fleet. Still, per the admission of the head of the Iranian Tanker Co, Mohammad Souri, Iran needed to purchase another 87 vessels by 2010, in addition to the 10 already purchased, in order to fulfill the needs of its growing LNG market. Iran has an estimated 26.6-trillion-cubic-meter gas reservoir, the second-largest in the world, about half of which is in offshore zones and the other half onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
///M Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Shorty, If Buck rallies I think the stock market will tank. The equity market and gold loves a weak dollar. Bare in mind, if you're based in Euroland or England you're not loving the weak dollar. US markets were basically flat in Euro terms today. Dollar weakness has prompted some international investors to start dumping US Dollars. It's a game of musical chairs I think so too Maxxi which was the point of my post a page or so back. I don't think they can keep the tape moving considerably higher WITHOUT sustained weakness in the dollar. At some point I anticipate the weaker dollar will have an impact on bonds first which will then eventually put pressure on equities. How long this plays out is unknown, but once bonds go without a commensurate increase in the dollar is when the best days of bully are well past IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Dinapoli traders would have gone long the SPX on the failed double repo at 1124 after a daily and weekly fib area of 416/418 held for POG they would be looking for the 439 to 448 area as an objective target. http://www.foxfutures.com/longterm110104/DLevels.htm On my weekly chart I have an OP of 438.5 using the September low of 396.80. Today my chart shows 433.60 and closing at the high. an objective doesn't mean it's going to stop there, but with any breakout I suspect at some point it may get retested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 my bigger ABC down on Uncle Buck is pointed at an OP of 77.7. That would make a spring of the 1992 low of 78.43 very important there is where the dollar crises lies.... I haven't a clue what lies below that.... I suspect they will try to rescue it now or wait for the 80 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 I think the smart guys will suck up all the gold miner shares that the traders want to sell. One of these days we wake up and gold is limit up at the open...... maybe a couple days in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 wndy, tanks for your picks for juniors. I was in KGC a year ago, but it was going nowhere at the time I'll check into it again. If anyone has opinions on MDG and AEM, I'd appreciate it. I was reading an industry-analysis last night, pointing to the very cheap Q-ratio valuation of the juniors as compared to the majors. The thesis was that any time that big a delta develops, M&A activity heats up. The point was also made that it can be cheaper to acquire reserves by acquisition than exploration. I remember there was talk last year that AEM might be an acq. target of GG; having mines nearby to GG, etc.. Does anyone have any skinny on that situation? Jickiss ? tanks! Currently sitting mainly on AEM, GG, GLG, KGC, MDG, NG, PAAS, PAL, RGLD, SSRI . Missed getting into PDG before it's move. Also playing calls on FCX and NEM. Pinksheets holdings, J-Pacific, Kimber, Pan American Gold, Scorpio, SAMEX, Tan Range. Canadian energy royaklty trusts PGH, PTF, PVX. Will look to add HMY when it look's like the negatives have bee fully priced-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted November 6, 2004 Report Share Posted November 6, 2004 Was out of town traveling Friday ... but on my late return I see that Friday was ... GOLD LIBERATION DAY The cash dollah index collapsed to 83.90, while Dec. gold blew past $433. This was the post-election scenario, and it's playing out per the script. As Soros used to say, when the market is confirming your scenario, PILE ON!!! An unfortunate side effect is that dollah weakness is not necessarily bad for stocks, being a kind of backdoor easing. That effect only goes so far, though. Eventually interest rates have to go up when a currency collapses. The zombie T-note at 4.18% yield is starting to show a little strain. Push it up to 4.50% or 5.00%, and stocks will show the strain too. Alright, everybody, let me hear ya loud and clear: DEATH TO THE DOLLAH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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