Hiding Bear Posted November 4, 2004 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 pleio, if I understand the numbers right, then if one assumes gas was properly priced at 2/gal a year ago, then it should be 3 bucks -already-, at 50/bbl. Regarding demand in a recession....I don't think it will be a linear function.? I would agree with the "inelastic"....right up until a point; then it starts dropping.? That would be when layoffs start climbing even faster.? No more commuting....no more shopping-trips...no more vacations... Personally, I'm not convinced that 50/bbl is due solely to the NY pits.? The demand curves in several countries accelerated sharply over the past 12 mos; while no new supply came onstream, and several disruptions of existing supply occurred.? Some price-rise was pits, yes, but I think the underlying demand is what provided the energy to the pit-boys play... Dozer: Total agreement in the first two paragraphs. The third one puzzles me because i see the "pits" as a marginal influence as long as China and India keep on growing. if during 2005 they manage to grow at 5% i guesstimate that will be another cool 2mbd demand by the end of that year... enough to strip away the little remaining reserve production that is potentially available (assuming Iraq goes back onstream). I still see no correlation of the bimonthly higher lows with any "news" that i can see... anybody have any ideas? I aligned the black triangles in the image in the aproximate upslope to make the bimonthly trend evident. Nice job pleiotropik. I mentioned six months ago that I saw monthly patterns in oil. I even made one, and only one trade, this year in late June base on that theory. It worked out quite well for the day or so I was long, but now oil is still $12 over where I sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Shorts gettin squeezed....Rydex assets suggest a top soon....let em pull in some more call buyers, will be loading up puts for the tank into opex Trade safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 This little movie sums it up. Just go to the site and wait for it to load -- you don't have to click, the image that initially loads is the first frame of the movie. Takes a while to load -- be patient. http://www.the-iceman.at/funstuff/index.ph...=whatswrong.swf Created by one of fxfox's compatriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowfish Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Since the local news does not cover this - nor do Fox and Rush - how many of the sheep are aware that the the dollar just nosedived in response to the election. I wonder, since they always say. "oh prices are going up". No they dont have clue! They only know the stock market went up. They think their 401Ks are getting fatter under Bush.....until they get their next statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orvack Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 I understand the funnymentals. I still would bet on a return to the blue channel. The long term cycles have turned down and the short-term ones have not bottomed yet. Just my point of view. Crude daily, tonight : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 TE, I was 13. Maybe 14. Maybe 15. I don't remember anymore. But I had all the albums and had some books and knew some stories and had a poster. I wore a bead necklace just like Jim. And I was in Paris. The green Michelin Guide didn't identify where his grave was. And P?re Lachaise is a sprawling cemetery that houses thousands of people who died over the centuries. It's out on the eastern outskirts of the city-proper. Walled. Gated. Celebrated. I wandered in, not knowing what to expect, though I thought it would be smaller than it is. The Michelin Guide provided a map that indicated the final location of other celebrated Parisian descedants: if I remember correctly, Beaudelaire, Wilde, Hugo, Citroen, Dietrich. I wandered to each of these, in idle boredom, recognizing some of the names, but without any attachment, while asking myself and wondering... "Where is Jim?" After an hour of wandering rock-strewn paths without a firm idea, I saw the first one. Simple. Small. Unobtrusive. But clear. Scratched onto the surface of an aging tomb, his name and a simple arrow: Jim ---> I followed the arrow. Soon, there was another & another & another & another: Jim ---> All that time, the directions had been all around me. After a while of following the arrows into an older part of the cemetary, there was suddenly graffiti. Everywhere. Then music. Growing louder as I approached. "Oh, show me the way to the next Whiskey Bar..." Obscured from the path by larger tombs of the 18th century, and shaded by trees from the late afternoon light, a small crowd of 6 or 7 held vigil over the small stone bust which marked the final resting spot of a "Poet. Singer. Composer." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 qoute like this are a super bearish sign imo "Second - the old Dow theory doesn't apply any longer. See the relationship was that the industrials and tranys were intersected in a totally symbiotic relationship. Not any more - the tranys are more related to the Hong Kong Bourse than to Wall Street these days. So if anyone is relying on that old black magic - you might rethink the code." rethink/ its different this time not a chance in my book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 from Mars (the words are, not the stoolie...or IS he??? :lol) The ports into the US are in chaos - they can't handle the tonage that is coming in. This is because we (the US) have outsourced so much manufacturing that what used to be distributed internally is now being distributed from the coasts. -------------- damn good point Mars. What's being bullhorned as a visible sign of our booming robust economy, is really a visible sign of the horrendous loss of mfg. strength in the US. great...thanks a lot Mars. ...and just for fun, cuz I thought the article headlines were so good... You mean we can alienate customers AND throw money down a rathole? Where do we sign up? By John Paczkowski Only the Motion Picture Association of America could look at the recording industry's ill-starred legal campaign against file sharing, its widely recognized failure and the resulting backlash, and conclude that it's worthy of imitation. (see "Music industry to recoup alleged file-sharing losses one 12-year-old at a time," "RIAA settles PR nightmare for $2000," "BitTorrent users chuckling over Pew peer-to-peer report," "Study: RIAA full of it" and "Well, it's a good idea if you're an RIAA attorney, anyway"). http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconva...sv/10099451.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Ok I'm not going to copy all the threads in but here is another part of my argument - read this the other day in the Washington Post. The ports into the US are in chaos - they can't handle the tonage that is coming in. This is because we (the US) have outsourced so much manufacturing that what used to be distributed internally is now being distributed from the coasts. Two things come to mind - that's xmas that is backing up at those ports (Just in time inventory system at play) so no matter where diesel goes the trucks have got to roll. Any further price rises will have to be rolled in too. That is going to hurt a lot of xmas wishes. Second - the old Dow theory doesn't apply any longer. See the relationship was that the industrials and tranys were intersected in a totally symbiotic relationship. Not any more - the tranys are more related to the Hong Kong Bourse than to Wall Street these days. So if anyone is relying on that old black magic - you might rethink the code. Any chance that an intentional port slow down could be designed to force China's hand on other issues? If shipments are late to the stores, won't retail Christmas shopping be negatively impacted? With a tapped out consumer - is christmas doomed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted November 4, 2004 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Ok I'm not going to copy all the threads in but here is another part of my argument - read this the other day in the Washington Post. The ports into the US are in chaos - they can't handle the tonage that is coming in. This is because we (the US) have outsourced so much manufacturing that what used to be distributed internally is now being distributed from the coasts. Two things come to mind - that's xmas that is backing up at those ports (Just in time inventory system at play) so no matter where diesel goes the trucks have got to roll. Any further price rises will have to be rolled in too. That is going to hurt a lot of xmas wishes. Second - the old Dow theory doesn't apply any longer. See the relationship was that the industrials and tranys were intersected in a totally symbiotic relationship. Not any more - the tranys are more related to the Hong Kong Bourse than to Wall Street these days. So if anyone is relying on that old black magic - you might rethink the code. Port of Seattle reported today a record, as traffic is diverted from LA: Container cargo hit record in September The Port of Seattle yesterday reported that containerized cargo increased a record 33.3 percent for September, compared with the same month last year. The port's terminals moved 161,620 20-foot-equivalent units in September, and that number was the highest since the seaport started handling containers in the 1960s, according to a spokesman. Seems this diversion increase demand for diesel by shipping out of Seattle when LA might be closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Tanks for sharing that Jimi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 They really need to stop Shrub from taking the war toys out for joyrides.http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor.../school_strafed "Mike Dupuis, president of the township's Board of Education, said school workers are mindful that the firing range is nearby. "Being so close to the range, that's always in the back of our minds. It is very scary. I have children in that school and relatives that work there," he said. The range has been used by the military since the end of World War II, long before this area of south Jersey was developed." ================== "I know! Let's develop this land near the firing range!" "Brilliant!" "And let's make sure we put the school nearby, so it can absorb the stray rounds!" "Brilliant!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Sure looks like it's all demand driven! Amazing. We manufacture nothing. Kudos to the politicos who allowed it all. Where's Ross Perot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Sure looks like it's all demand driven! Amazing. We manufacture nothing. Kudos to the politicos who allowed it all. Where's Ross Perot? under sedation ?? really enjoyable read Jimi....felt like I was there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted November 4, 2004 Report Share Posted November 4, 2004 Sure looks like it's all demand driven! Amazing. We manufacture nothing. Kudos to the politicos who allowed it all. Where's Ross Perot? He is laughing at the american people somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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