B4 The Bell Thursday November 4

[Guest]

This 7 day ramp job on the S&P is starting to get a little frigging ridiculous.  Just astonished

It's either the final epic squeeze of the shorts (which is what sentiment stuff would suggest)...or the start of a huge bull leg...whatever top we finally make here short term, will be a huge pivot area...

Bush has the advantage of the "girliemandate" to use Open Mouth Operations every day if he chooses to - threatening to shovel the Social Security system into the stock market (not that there is actually any money there to distribute).

 

How can it go down with the threat of that kind of liquidity injection underlying it? The traders and operators are just licking their chops to devise the scams and schemes necessary to transfer all that wealth to their own pockets.

 

At this point, even the Caribou in Alaska are bending over in a submissive stance awaiting the arrival of the Vast Right Wing Coincidence.

[Mars]

pleio, if I understand the numbers right, then if one assumes gas was properly priced at 2/gal a year ago, then it should be 3 bucks -already-, at 50/bbl.

 

Regarding demand in a recession....I don't think it will be a linear function. I would agree with the "inelastic"....right up until a point; then it starts dropping. That would be when layoffs start climbing even faster. No more commuting....no more shopping-trips...no more vacations...

 

Personally, I'm not convinced that 50/bbl is due solely to the NY pits. The demand curves in several countries accelerated sharply over the past 12 mos; while no new supply came onstream, and several disruptions of existing supply occurred. Some price-rise was pits, yes, but I think the underlying demand is what provided the energy to the pit-boys play...

Absolutely correct Dozer - and that was the situation I was talking about. Push it a little and get a lot out of the push.

 

Pleiotropik (please don't be insulted but I looked that word up and I don't think it is spelled that way and I don't get the meaning at all - but no matter) I think that the consumer is already maxed out. There's no more home equity ATM, no more tax cut, and the plastic is pretty much gone. All the prices really have been rising (regardless of what the buck is doing - different story) and his wages have not. Something has to give and this is the worst time of the year for that something to happen.

 

Now there are two choices - either let the price per barrel fall or kill the goose completely. We are the demand. If our demand goes down there is no more because - the other world wide demand relies on our demand for their freaking goods to stimulate their demand la di da di da di da.

 

And if the OPEC gang is relying on the Euro to pull their eggs out of the fire - good golly miss molly - that ECM economy is worse off than ours.

 

I don't make this stuff up guys - you know I don't. And that's all I'm trying to say tonight.

[The End]

This 7 day ramp job on the S&P is starting to get a little frigging ridiculous.? Just astonished

It's either the final epic squeeze of the shorts (which is what sentiment stuff would suggest)...or the start of a huge bull leg...whatever top we finally make here short term, will be a huge pivot area...

Bush has the advantage of the "girliemandate" to use Open Mouth Operations every day if he chooses to - threatening to shovel the Social Security system into the stock market (not that there is actually any money there to distribute).

 

How can it go down with the threat of that kind of liquidity injection underlying it? The traders and operators are just licking their chops to devise the scams and schemes necessary to transfer all that wealth to their own pockets.

 

At this point, even the Caribou in Alaska are bending over in a submissive stance awaiting the arrival of the Vast Right Wing Coincidence.

Why fight the tape?

[dozer]

TE, tanks for link !

 

Pleio, sorry, I thought you had said that earl should be 30-32, and was up at 50 only due to the NY pits playing games. I guess maybe it was orvack....or Mars...or...or....heck, I lost track of the quote-chain!

 

Anyway, that's what I was referring to. I agree there's pit-playing, but don't think the 50 buck price is solely games.

 

My reading of oil-industry stuff leaves me with the impression of a system at the limit, both in raw pumped, and in refinery cap. of desired products.

 

Your example of one way to see a possible 2mbd demand increase is spot-on I think. hmmm...reminds me...has anyone heard if Kuwait got back on line fully? Dropped right outta the news, didn't it?

 

Can anyone here see Iraqi production coming back on stream? Ever?

I mean, in the next year or two? I just can't imagine how it could be done.

 

Reminds me of Star Wars...."the more you tighten your grip Tark, the more we'll slip right through your fingers!" yah! go girl !

 

Nigeria might pump more, but I'm not aware of any large infrastructure projects there; and the place seems more likely of -drops- than raises right now.

 

New big oil-tax in Venezuela must be being eyed by others too...

 

Anyway, like you, I see demand rising even if US flattens...and I see many many MANY potential glitches in supply. Seems that, with a real tight market, every glitch will bump the price.

 

Nice chart Pleio. Just doing "visual TA" on it, the current drop seems to fit the trend of increasing cycle-height well...and looks about over to me...might be turn-up time...

[Guest]

This 7 day ramp job on the S&P is starting to get a little frigging ridiculous.  Just astonished

It's either the final epic squeeze of the shorts (which is what sentiment stuff would suggest)...or the start of a huge bull leg...whatever top we finally make here short term, will be a huge pivot area...

Bush has the advantage of the "girliemandate" to use Open Mouth Operations every day if he chooses to - threatening to shovel the Social Security system into the stock market (not that there is actually any money there to distribute).

 

How can it go down with the threat of that kind of liquidity injection underlying it? The traders and operators are just licking their chops to devise the scams and schemes necessary to transfer all that wealth to their own pockets.

 

At this point, even the Caribou in Alaska are bending over in a submissive stance awaiting the arrival of the Vast Right Wing Coincidence.

Why fight the tape?

You tell me where it's going and I won't fight it. Deal?

 

Looks like the trannies were set up for a breakout on the oil price drop, no?

 

If you know where oil's going, I'll believe the tape is going the other way. It makes sense that they would use the oil chart to launch the next leg up. Good calls on the oil price drop if it continues.

 

Check out UPS:

 

http://139.142.147.221/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180

[The End]

I have no clue as to what is going to happen save the fact that we are screwed in the end.

[The End]

Another new high for TPINX.

[Guest]

I have no clue as to what is going to happen save the fact that we are screwed in the end.

Amen, Brutha

[pleiotropik]

pleio, if I understand the numbers right, then if one assumes gas was properly priced at 2/gal a year ago, then it should be 3 bucks -already-, at 50/bbl.

 

Regarding demand in a recession....I don't think it will be a linear function.  I would agree with the "inelastic"....right up until a point; then it starts dropping.  That would be when layoffs start climbing even faster.  No more commuting....no more shopping-trips...no more vacations...

 

Personally, I'm not convinced that 50/bbl is due solely to the NY pits.  The demand curves in several countries accelerated sharply over the past 12 mos; while no new supply came onstream, and several disruptions of existing supply occurred.  Some price-rise was pits, yes, but I think the underlying demand is what provided the energy to the pit-boys play...

Absolutely correct Dozer - and that was the situation I was talking about. Push it a little and get a lot out of the push.

 

Pleiotropik (please don't be insulted but I looked that word up and I don't think it is spelled that way and I don't get the meaning at all - but no matter) I think that the consumer is already maxed out. There's no more home equity ATM, no more tax cut, and the plastic is pretty much gone. All the prices really have been rising (regardless of what the buck is doing - different story) and his wages have not. Something has to give and this is the worst time of the year for that something to happen.

 

Now there are two choices - either let the price per barrel fall or kill the goose completely. We are the demand. If our demand goes down there is no more because - the other world wide demand relies on our demand for their freaking goods to stimulate their demand la di da di da di da.

 

And if the OPEC gang is relying on the Euro to pull their eggs out of the fire - good golly miss molly - that ECM economy is worse off than ours.

 

I don't make this stuff up guys - you know I don't. And that's all I'm trying to say tonight.

Agreement on what you say i can only add:

 

I would like to kill the goose completely if i could. I?m still pissed for what happened the 2nd of november.

Let the hypertiger roam. let this be a bears paradise...

But on the other hand, about the consumer being maxxed out... i think we are close but there should be enough to drop from the helicopter at least till Santa crawls down the last chimney. so i will still stake my (nonexistant) reputation on $62 /barrel for christmas.

 

 

 

"pleiotropik" is totallly invented... i derived it a few years ago from pleiotroph. and no, i do not feel insulted. i like its contraction "pleio" ... and thanks for all the responses. i feel i?m in heaven with all the sensory input i get from this board... thanks.

[dozer]

mars sez...

 

""I think that the consumer is already maxed out. There's no more home equity ATM, no more tax cut, and the plastic is pretty much gone. All the prices really have been rising (regardless of what the buck is doing - different story) and his wages have not. Something has to give and this is the worst time of the year for that something to happen.

 

Now there are two choices - either let the price per barrel fall or kill the goose completely. We are the demand. If our demand goes down there is no more because - the other world wide demand relies on our demand for their freaking goods to stimulate their demand la di da di da di da.

 

And if the OPEC gang is relying on the Euro to pull their eggs out of the fire - good golly miss molly - that ECM economy is worse off than ours.""

-------------------

 

Mars, I agree completely. And now I see what you were trying to say....there might be manipulation to keep earl -down- rather than up... Now there's a new one!

 

Agree 100% about europe too. I've never understood all the hype about europe, and how we should socialize even further...see how well europe's doing...yadda yadda.. Huh?? I read an article in a german paper which strongly suggested that -their- gov reports are just as jiggered as ours; and that German UE is MUCH higher than gov says. More like 15-20%....

 

I'm going to have to think about your suggestion that US recession would reduce oil-demand worldwide. Yes, I see the econ. connections...but not all the growth in China, India, et al, is export-related. There is some internal development and improvement as well. E.g., once you've added 10 million cars, then you've 'permanently' increased oil-consumption X percent, yes?

That kind of thing...

 

Probably very dependent on -depth- and speed of depression here in US. If bad/quick enough, then yes, probably at least a total flattening of oil consumption, if not some actual drop.

[PandaBear]

Can anyone here see Iraqi production coming back on stream?  Ever?

I mean, in the next year or two?  I just can't imagine how it could be done.

 

Reminds me of Star Wars...."the more you tighten your grip Tark, the more we'll slip right through your fingers!"  yah!  go girl ! 

 

 

"I find your lack of faith disturbing."

 

"The power of this battle station is nothing compared to the power of the Fed."

 

 

"You are far too trusting."

[Dustbowl]

They really need to stop Shrub from taking the war toys out for joyrides.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor.../school_strafed

[Mars]

Ok I'm not going to copy all the threads in but here is another part of my argument - read this the other day in the Washington Post.

 

The ports into the US are in chaos - they can't handle the tonage that is coming in. This is because we (the US) have outsourced so much manufacturing that what used to be distributed internally is now being distributed from the coasts.

 

Two things come to mind - that's xmas that is backing up at those ports (Just in time inventory system at play) so no matter where diesel goes the trucks have got to roll. Any further price rises will have to be rolled in too. That is going to hurt a lot of xmas wishes.

 

Second - the old Dow theory doesn't apply any longer. See the relationship was that the industrials and tranys were intersected in a totally symbiotic relationship. Not any more - the tranys are more related to the Hong Kong Bourse than to Wall Street these days. So if anyone is relying on that old black magic - you might rethink the code.

[brian4]

Bill Bonner over at the Daily Reckoning says PrezyDent Shrub is a phoney, Oh Bill say it ain't so I thought he was a paragon of virtue. Bernie Schaeffer in his evening letter says Gold is gonna go much higher than we think, now that I agree with. Mars-China and India have grown to the point where their middle class has taken off and all those people with all those $'s are buying things. Their Oil demand is not going to drop they know damn well our demand for products from them will drop as the economy craters but they have replaced our consumers with their own. They don't need us anymore-sad but true.

[yellowfish]

Why do you think we are in the middle east with absolutely no plan to ever leave? Why wont Cheney release his energy meeting notes? Why everyday does crapvision tell the sheeple oil has topped? Get your bicycles and your energy stocks folks while you still can - Peak oil is here.