machinehead Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 "Yer honor, we found this prevert sodomizin' a sheep." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 I was looking the monthly charts of many of the homebubblers...some are starting to crack..while others still right near the high..typical of a peaking sector.. K-Wave, Do you expect the housebuilders to retrace to mid 2000 levels or below, for example: CTX 52 -> 10 HOV 37 -> 4 LEN 45 -> 8 PHM 55 -> 10 RYL 95 -> 10 Do you have an estimate of how long it will take? Many thanks for any pointers. I expect many of them to cease to exist.. Once the turn is finally in, I would expect the collapse to happen fairly rapidly..about 18 months would be my guess, based upon many other bubble type collpases I have seen thru the years.. Look at the monthly charts of JDSU, CMGI, YHOO etc.. for examples of what the downturn will likely resemble.. Here's a close approximation of what the internuts looked like on the way up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/10/29/bulge/ NASA image anal cyst says Bush wore a wire during debates. (......but I doubt it would change a single vote. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 And here's what even the strongest of the homebubblers is likely to look like in the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 FUH2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 Some online message board thoughts for your consideration... Electronic forums have their flaws...many of which can be greatly improved upon with a little forethought on the part of every person who posts. From my perspective, the worst electronic medium for comprehension/understanding is instant messaging. It has everything to do with the speed at which each user's words are committed to writing forever. I dated a lady for a while who was generally not a confident person and disinclined to "give the benefit of the doubt" where any given communication could be taken in one of two ways. Misunderstandings via IM were frequent, to the point where I simply refused to use that medium to communicate with her. This general concept of committing our thoughts to writing in a quick manner implies a requirement on the end of those for whom it is intended...when a subject might be taken out of context, misconstrued or otherwise is seemingly offensive...GIVE THE PERSON WHO WROTE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT UNTIL SOME FORM OF CLARIFICATION AND UNDERSTANDING CAN BE OBTAINED. You can be in the midst of a happy, free flowing IM discussion when all of the sudden, an answer to a prior question appears to be an answer to the present question, and the whole thing turns into a giant misunderstanding. It happens all the time The same is true in this slower paced forum to some extent. Not everyone who posts here is either capable of or cares to take the time to select every word with the greatest of care...and since we are all family here, we all need to keep in mind that the odds of any one of us being intentionally offensive to the family is less than 30%. With that in mind, something as simple as "the benefit of the doubt" is a requirement for civil discourse. When someone says something that strikes you as highly offensive...don't jump straight into their shit...calmly request a clarification...we have all day to get it right. The other day when someone posted a picture of a kid in what looked to be a highly offensive Halloween costume, I mistakenly assumed it was one, as it was not obvious to me at the time that it was a spoof (albeit a distasteful one). I went off on a rant about the Halloween costume (that actually wasn't one)...but never attacked the person who posted the picture. I was later provided with a greater understanding of what that picture was all about, and while I still find its existence offensive, I do not hold the person who posted it responsible for the fact that someone had the poor taste to shoot the picture in the first place...and I'm damn glad I didn't spew a bunch of hateful crap in the poster's direction based on my misunderstanding of what I thought I was seeing. I'm glad he posted it to show me the kind of garbage that is out there that the rest of the world is viewing,and forming opinions of us based upon. Knowledge is power, even if you don't like everything you learn. Always assume the best of people in online forums. If they say something that seems totally out of line...make them expand on their thoughts by asking direct/polite but probing questions. If they are digging a hole for themselves, allow them to keep on digging. The moderators will then resolve the issue as that is their job. If you simply misunderstood the original intent, or the person who posted was less than clear- giving them the opportunity to explain themselves is what civil discourse provides for. Not all of us are cunninglinguists. B4 himself is punctuationally challenged, and some of his run-on sentences could be taken to mean something completely contrary to his intent. Because we know Brian, we give him the benefit of the doubt, and read many of his postings twice to understand where the missing punctuation was supposed to go to get the full meaning of his economic writing style. Never attack anyone without requesting clarification...and even if you get clarification, and they are completely out of line...never attack anyone, any way. Behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 you can now splash the essence of Hummer all over your body! General Motors, the maker of this massive symbol of automotive macho, has now licensed a new Hummer cologne calling it "The Essence of Adventure," and pricing it as high as $52 for a Hummer-shaped bottle of the stuff. The Hummer is an absurdly-expensive, gas-guzzling, low-performance, high-polluting, gussied-up chunk of automotive junk. Now Hummer cologne distills that into scent. OK time to get off my hummer kick and stop the links. But what better contrarian sign that oil is going to continue to climb. But $5 / gallon gas won't matter to most owners such as the governator whom I believe owns 8 of them. Regardless will be interesting to see when the climbing price of gas impacts the auto makers marketing and sales. GM stock chart already looks very sick. Big changes not too far off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 tanks Plunger, Bizarro. Hanky, Mogambo commonly cites "one in five" I think it is, for gov employees. I've assumed his numbers are correct, since when he's not the crazy Mogambo , he seems to have a real financial gig I wonder what else is in his 20% that's not accounted for in the 15% you cited? Also, those are direct-emps only, and from personal observations, I believe it far understates the total. A local example: We're in serious forest-fire country here. The USFS =contracts out= the ground crews....yet they're on much of the year. The BLM =contracts= out road maintenance; yet they're on year round. I know it sounds like "oh, that's private biz", but I'm talking about companies which do NOTHING but work for the feds. It's a pretty common scenario in the west; and I'll bet there are many examples in other fields nationwide. I have read numerous estimates that the total people -directly- dependent on gov checks is more like -30- % of total workers. Kinda scary... Mars, you touch on a subject that Robin and I have much discussed; as our local economy is so different than where we used to live. Around here, the major industries were literally decimated around 1990 by the fake spotted-owl scam. Literally 9 of 10 in the industry were thrown out of work. Since then, the economy has split into two parts. There are the trust-fund babies who move up here and build "California Castles", and then there are the thousands of peons who service them. This reaches it's most bizarre form in Ashland, where the 'service' jobs are totally NON-essential things like: teaching Yoga classes, walking their poodles, trimming the hedges, massage, Pilates, dance class, etc.. It's really odd to see an entire -community- based on personal vanity services! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 "Yer honor, we found this prevert sodomizin' a sheep." Hmmmm! That looks like a Florida Department of Corrections Uniform shirt on Cheney, especially the right-sleeve patch. I used to wear one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 Some online message board thoughts for your consideration... Electronic forums have their flaws...many of which can be greatly improved upon with a little forethought on the part of every person who posts. From my perspective, the worst electronic medium for comprehension/understanding is instant messaging. It has everything to do with the speed at which each user's words are committed to writing forever. I dated a lady for a while who was generally not a confident person and disinclined to "give the benefit of the doubt" where any given communication could be taken in one of two ways. This general concept of committing our thoughts to writing in a quick manner implies a requirement on the end of those for whom it is intended...when a subject might be taken out of context, misconstrued or otherwise is seemingly offensive...GIVE THE PERSON WHO WROTE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT UNTIL SOME FORM OF CLARIFICATION AND UNDERSTANDING CAN BE OBTAINED. You can be in the midst of a happy, free flowing IM discussion when all of the sudden, an answer to a prior question appears to be an answer to the present question, and the whole thing turns into a giant misunderstanding. It happens all the time The same is true in this slower paced forum to some extent. Not everyone who posts here is either capable of or cares to take the time to select every word with the greatest of care...and since we are all family here, we all need to keep in mind that the odds of any one of us being intentionally offensive to the family is less than 30%. With that in mind, something as simple as "the benefit of the doubt" is a requirement for civil discourse. When someone says something that strikes you as highly offensive...don't jump straight into their shit...calmly request a clarification...we have all day to get it right. The other day when someone posted a picture of a kid in what looked to be a highly offensive Halloween costume, I mistakenly assumed it was one, as it was not obvious to me at the time that it was a spoof (albeit a distasteful one). I went off on a rant about the Halloween costume (that actually wasn't one)...but never attacked the person who posted the picture. I was later provided with a greater understanding of what that picture was all about, and while I still find its existence offensive, I do not hold the person who posted it responsible for the fact that someone had the poor taste to shoot the picture in the first place...and I'm damn glad I didn't spew a bunch of hateful crap in the poster's direction based on my misunderstanding of what I thought I was seeing. I'm glad he posted it to show me the kind of garbage that is out there that the rest of the world is viewing,and forming opinions of us based upon. Knowledge is power, even if you don't like everything you learn. Always assume the best of people in online forums. If they say something that seems totally out of line...make them expand on their thoughts by asking direct/polite but probing questions. If they are digging a hole for themselves, allow them to keep on digging. The moderators will then resolve the issue as that is their job. If you simply misunderstood the original intent, or the person who posted was less than clear- giving them the opportunity to explain themselves is what civil discourse provides for. Not all of us are cunninglinguists. B4 himself is punctuationally challenged, and some of his run-on sentences could be taken to mean something completely contrary to his intent. Because we know Brian, we give him the benefit of the dount, and read many of his postings twice to understand where the missing punctuation was supposed to go to get the full meaning of his economic writing style. Never attack anyone without requesting clarification...and even if you get clarification, and they are completely out of line...never attack anyone, any way. Behave. Great post Plunger. Just one thing I would add,.. take it private through the private messaging. I swear our human curse is that we want to attach meaning to everything. It's just the way the human mind works.... constantly.. 24/7,.. attaching meaning, like some processor. Most all of it, is garbage & rackets. There's only a few things in this world that has real, true meaning. Certainly a picture of a Halloween costume does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 "Yer honor, we found this prevert sodomizin' a sheep." Hmmmm! That looks like a Florida Department of Corrections Uniform shirt on Cheney, especially the right-sleeve patch. I used to wear one. Well? Didja catch any preverts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 Dozer: "Personal Vanity Services" I like that - it has a nice shallow ring to it. Just imagine how much money is represented by that sector in the United States. Dieting Personal Training Hair, Nails, Beauty, Waxing, etc. Car Salon Pet Salon Landscape Maintenance Man...once you start that list, where do you stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 That is so true Hank -I know 2 guys who own Hummers - and nothing looks more ridiculous than the family going to the mall in the Hummer. Both are true rheinstone Cowboys who think it's Macho to own one. I asked them a few days ago what the mileage was like their pained expression said it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 Hunter, I completely agree about the "transformer" in Kuwait. That's pure BS. And every serious industrial-process facility I know of has complete diesel genset backup anyway. Without Iraqi oil flowing, the world econ. has zero margin....and it seems obvious that there will always be -something-...a power failure in Kuwait, a strike in Norway, a new tax in Venezuela.... I'd expect oil to stay right were it is, or keep getting popped back up at every new problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 31, 2004 Report Share Posted October 31, 2004 "Yer honor, we found this prevert sodomizin' a sheep." Hmmmm! That looks like a Florida Department of Corrections Uniform shirt on Cheney, especially the right-sleeve patch. I used to wear one. Well? Didja catch any preverts? Not sodimizin' sheep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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