"Buy and Hold" HedgeFunds Coming

[Hiding Bear]

If all the hedge-hogs go long for the duration,doesn't this imply that everyone is on the same side of the boat? 1987 springs to mind.

Anyone know where we are on Hypertiger's timeframe????

 

I think it's been over 7 mos from the doomsday event.

 

 

F.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but he allowed (near the end of his posts) up to two more years of inflation before deflation would take over.

[pistolpapa]

jickiss is back!

 

 

As was noted above, this evening, the "Idea" to run hedge funds "long only" is based upon the "cool concept" that more coin can be skimmed in this way from Big Sponsors.

 

This is the first reason, and it makes sense, to the Hedge Fund Managers, for sure.

 

The Second reason, jickiss suspects, is that most of the so called "Stock Pickers" (for instance the manager quoted above, who "beats" by 5 or 6 percent per year since da middle 90's) have outperformed by concentrating on shifting from group to group that Marky Mark has discussed many times.  jickiss thinks that the Hedge Funds want to rotate group wise on leverage.....so, it is easier to "Look Sincere" with this kind of plan in mind, by touting a humble "We are Long Term Bullish on Progress, Technology, Da Merican Way, Capitalism, yada, yada, yada" rather than to ever discuss the DANGERS TO THE SYSTEM when short concepts are touted as a "Way to Make Money for your Big Pension Plan."  It is easier to Market as a bull.  The lies are less scary.

 

In addition, as a 3rd thought, jickiss comes back to the Kali Pension Plans' announcements of a few years ago, that said that NET REDEMPTIONS would cause the liquidation of Long Positions, if the same relative asset allocation rations were left in place. 

 

Think about the Whole System, and Da Boys, for a moment.  If Kali, (purely for example, there are others) have to sell stocks to pay cops, firemen, teachers, etc, how DF can they find buyers for this garbage???  Da answer is to fund, with your own plan's money, other clowns who will leverage sectors, as "perpetual longs," to support the shares that you know you want to sell.  This is kind of like the way the Real Estate Markets have worked, over the last 4 years.  Additional leverage, focused upon "Key Areas" (Like the 2 coasts) has created a Real Estate Bubble.

 

Finally, perhaps some Hedge Fund Managers actually think that the Monetary Authorities will encourage Money to be "Invested" into da Market from Social Insecurity "Funds."  It makes sense to have a "Product" to sell into this market-shifting paradigm, perhaps.

Good ideas, jickiss

 

I dunno,

 

This whole long hedge fund idea reeks of desperation...a Hail Mary Pass.

 

Hedge funds used to hide their ideas.

 

Now it seems as though a few are trying to sell others on the scheme, "Let's all go long."

 

As any quarterback knows, if everyone goes long, he's got little time to react to two tons of beef-fed flesh charging at him.

 

At the beginning of a downturn, all kinds of ideas seem like winners,

 

Until the downturn gets rollin' real good.

 

Then like Irving Fisher must have thought after the '29 crash,

 

"What was I thinking? I knew better."

[pistolpapa]

If all the hedge-hogs go long for the duration,doesn't this imply that everyone is on the same side of the boat? 1987 springs to mind.

Anyone know where we are on Hypertiger's timeframe????

 

I think it's been over 7 mos from the doomsday event.

 

 

F.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but he allowed (near the end of his posts) up to two more years of inflation before deflation would take over.

Hypertiger allowed for inflation ONLY if the PTB could somehow get the money to the flock.

 

Helicopter drops can only be performed by the government.

 

This would have to be in the works at this time in order to prevent system collapse next year.

 

 

Also, how is the PTB gonna tangle with THIS:

 

But to sustain the current reality MZM must begin moving straight up...forever...

 

1776 to 1991 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 215 years

 

1991 to 2000 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 9 years

 

2000 to 2003 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 3 years

 

So from now [Oct. 25, 2003] until the end of 2004 MZM must grow by 2 Trillion and after that it must grow by 2 Trillion in 3 months then 1 month then 1 week then 3 days then 1 day then 8 hours then 2 hours then less than an hour and so on and so forth until we are down to nanoseconds and beyond...

 

Or the System will collapse...the end

 

Sound Familiar?

 

 

The current machinations are working AGAINST an inflationary solution to the imminent recession cum depression.

 

Rising interest rates,

 

Rising energy costs,

 

Rising health care costs,

 

Lower wages for the flock.

 

Hypertiger may have been off by a year or so, but when this thing hits, ain't nobody gonna give a damn about busted predictions.

[jickiss]

jickiss is back!

 

and

 

dear Pistol: Thank you for your kind words.

 

jickiss, driven on by da deceptions of Da Boyz, and following the lead of Marky Mark and MachineHead, who always seem to look at two things at once,

 

has stressed the value of looking at the ratios of any two markets, or issues, like gg vs. $gold.

 

anyway, Pistol, when we note the sideways, (box formation) of the spooz versus gold since about 2003, then it appears clear how the force of spread trades has worked to "keep stable" key relationships.

 

once the imperative is withdrawn, however, will the return of gravity,

expected by your jickiss,

overpower the advent of even more pure levitation,

as is being forecast by several?

 

will expectations trump reality after da Lection???

or will liquidity needs have to be met, as in "da Old Daze," by actually selling something, stocks, bonds, real estate, art, the family jewels, hell knows, even souls, to get cash???????

 

the suspense mounts, for sure.

here be da chart

[jickiss]

Dear Pistol:

 

jickiss liked you line, above, about low wages. so here is a jickiss poem.

 

is something Big ready to soon arrive, or will Rome decline by inches, for 50 more years, first??

 

Lower Wages for the Flock

Of Sheeples, working 'round the Clock

To earn da Coin they need to Buy

All those Imports, 'for they Die

[pistolpapa]

jickiss is back!

 

and

 

dear Pistol:  Thank you for your kind words.

 

jickiss, driven on by da deceptions of Da Boyz, and following the lead of Marky Mark and MachineHead, who always seem to look at two things at once,

 

has stressed the value of looking at the ratios of any two markets, or issues, like gg vs. $gold.

 

anyway, Pistol, when we note the sideways, (box formation) of the spooz versus gold since about 2003, then it appears clear how the force of spread trades has worked to "keep stable" key relationships.

 

once the imperative is withdrawn, however, will the return of gravity,

expected by your jickiss,

overpower the advent of even more pure levitation,

as is being forecast by several?

 

will expectations trump reality after da Lection???

or will liquidity needs have to be met, as in "da Old Daze," by actually selling something, stocks, bonds, real estate, art, the family jewels, hell knows, even souls, to get cash???????

 

the suspense mounts, for sure.

here be da chart

jickiss,

 

The flock was holding their cards in '03.

 

The pressure is building to fold 'em and run.

 

And,

 

Gold and silver, like oil is being pumped by big money.

 

The shorts never get squeezed as predicted by Sinclair, Le Metropole etc. because big money is playing weak hands both up and down,

 

Either loading up,

 

Or covering shorts in an holding company scenario.

 

If they are loading up, there is something smelly brewing out of our range of sight.

 

Add to that the Fed raising interest rates when they should be creating volume for the banks.

 

Unless the Fed is just plain stupid, they know all these bubbles are gonna burst.

 

IMO they got a plan of which we will know nothing until they drop the bomb.

 

Unless...

 

We listen to our gut instincts.

[pistolpapa]

Dear Pistol:

 

jickiss liked you line, above, about low wages.?  so here is a jickiss poem.?

 

is something Big ready to soon arrive, or will Rome decline by inches, for 50 more years, first??

 

Lower Wages for the Flock

Of Sheeples, working 'round the Clock

To earn da Coin they need to Buy

All those Imports, 'for they Die

I think I saw that poem on a bathroom wall in Wally-Mart.

 

 

 

Back in Rome most people still lived off the land.

 

Things happened slowly.

 

This is the age of 512mb video cards.

 

Everything happens with heavy crude cappuccino speed.

[wndysrf]

Like K-Wave sez.....

 

We are at a critical inflection point.

 

Are many of the HedgeFunds massively short?

 

Are they really trying to pick tops?

 

Do various Fumble Manglers really have a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines until after Nov. 2??

 

Best thing to do is to let the market tell us.

 

Like Buddha said, the PigMen in the pits are the closest to the action, and if they sense that a lot of new long money is getting ready to enter the market, they will be smart enough the front run it and be the first ones in.

 

Just like the 2003 War Rally, where the PigMen jumped in 3 days before the first bombs were dropped.

 

On the other hand, if they thought the market was going to crash, we will see lots of MOC sell orders start hitting the tape on Monday's close, as the BoarMen start tipping off the White Shoes and the big money starts sneaking out 15 minutes before the close..........

 

Lets wait and see what Mr. Market has to say next week..............

[Hiding Bear]

In regards to inflation:

 

There is no doubt that the US money supply is sluggish and may fall into outright contraction soon without some unusual actions by the Fed. That sounds negative - and essentially it is for the US consumer. Adjusted for inflation, real spending would have to drop.

 

However the big wild card here is that many dollars are created outside of the US, due to the actions of foreign central banks interviening in support of the dollar. With all those dollars and other fiat money being created, the world money supply outside of the US is expanding. Whether it goes to stocks, bonds, oil, gold, or something else it will go somewhere.

 

So I'm saying it's easily possible to have worldwide inflation, and higher prices for raw materials, at the same time we enter a recession in the US.

[dozer]

Nice essays jickiss....and that was an interesting chart of the SP/gold !

yup, they sure have kept that ratio constant, eh?

 

 

Pistol made two good points which I've always thought important; and which a lot of people don't seem to think of when they think of depression-2....

 

a) In the 1930's, most people knew how to garden (for food), knew how to hunt; and commonly did both. Today, virtually nobody vegetable gardens in any serious way; and very few hunt (% basis).

 

Things happen awful quickly these days....

 

I'll add a third one too...

 

c) There are a LOT more people now...

 

heck, I'll add a fourth one too...

 

d) In the 30's, people expected to be SELF-sufficient. That was just normal. Today, it's hideous to see how the mass of people actually CRAVE being dependent...begging the gov to make decisions for them....supply them with life's necessities...blame anyone but themselves for problems...

 

in re; HT's prediction.... I'm thinking that plus/minus a year or two, on a 100-yr timeframe item, is pretty reasonable for an estimate...

[pistolpapa]

In regards to inflation:

 

There is no doubt that the US money supply is sluggish and may fall into outright contraction soon without some unusual actions by the Fed. That sounds negative - and essentially it is for the US consumer. Adjusted for inflation, real spending would have to drop.

 

However the big wild card here is that many dollars are created outside of the US, due to the actions of foreign central banks interviening in support of the dollar. With all those dollars and other fiat money being created, the world money supply outside of the US is expanding. Whether it goes to stocks, bonds, oil, gold, or something else it will go somewhere.

 

So I'm saying it's easily possible to have worldwide inflation, and higher prices for raw materials, at the same time we enter a recession in the US.

Higher prices for raw materials would mean depression, in an already weak system.

 

Depression in the US would mean the collapse of the bubble economies of Asia and the long overdue depression in Japan.

 

Remember, China is nothing but a big Argentina without the natural resources.

 

As soon as Asia gets a whiff of recession in US, they lose their incentive to hold dollar assets.

 

Panic out of dollar assets into commodities and PMs.

 

Bond collapse.

 

US Government insolvency.

 

End game.

 

******

 

Except,

 

IMO, the Fed (Big Banks) see this coming and are preparing for it now.

 

Crash it, then save it with a cashless system.

 

 

 

Dreamers.

[pistolpapa]

Nice essays jickiss....and that was an interesting chart of the SP/gold !

yup, they sure have kept that ratio constant, eh?

 

 

Pistol made two good points which I've always thought important; and which a lot of people don't seem to think of when they think of depression-2....

 

a) In the 1930's, most people knew how to garden (for food), knew how to hunt; and commonly did both. Today, virtually nobody vegetable gardens in any serious way; and very few hunt (% basis).

 

Things happen awful quickly these days....

 

I'll add a third one too...

 

c) There are a LOT more people now...

 

heck, I'll add a fourth one too...

 

d) In the 30's, people expected to be SELF-sufficient. That was just normal. Today, it's hideous to see how the mass of people actually CRAVE being dependent...begging the gov to make decisions for them....supply them with life's necessities...blame anyone but themselves for problems...

 

in re; HT's prediction.... I'm thinking that plus/minus a year or two, on a 100-yr timeframe item, is pretty reasonable for an estimate...

All of the above, dozer.

 

Especially the part of "soooo many people".

 

Hey, this ain't a pretty picture of what is coming, but the more we wake up and see it, the more able we will be to prepare ourselves, not only externally, but internally for the inevitable.

 

See it as an opportunity to get stronger.

[Charmin]

I know it's probably not the right place to say it but with such low volatility in the indices for this week's steady grind higher it appears to me that the Bush presidency will continue for another four years.

 

Uncle Buck at the lows for the year

POG just under the highs for the year

Euro just under the highs for the year

Some indices like the SPX and NDX ready for breakouts or breakdowns.

 

Having these things massaged into position for a political event seems like a fair assessment. The outcome - probably more of the same.

[GregFokker]

From Buddadropping's post over at Clearstation:

 

Poll challenges and the like will not slow the Market.

 

I think the Markets will see thru all this and accumulation will get a head start early next week. The PigMen are very smart players and unlike our soldiers they never go into battle without their full armor on. They will be sailing way ahead of timid and brainwashed sheeple on this one. As I speak they are mounted on rested steeds, their long spears glittering thru the edges of the great forests just as the sun breaks across the mountain peaks and awakens the valley below with bursts of flickering light. Soon the Boarmen, horsed and terrible, will ride out upon the plain in full view of a sad and dwindling voluteer batallion of retail shorts. Evisceration, disembowelment and the piking of heads above the Field will be their doom. We await the clarion call of the rutting PigCaptain.

 

Positioning now in tech, alternative energy, stem cells, etc. This market is coiled and ready to fly once the media generated horserace around the elections proves to be just another ploy for ratings. Y2K all over again.

[PandaBear]

In regards to inflation:

 

There is no doubt that the US money supply is sluggish and may fall into outright contraction soon without some unusual actions by the Fed.  That sounds negative - and essentially it is for the US consumer.  Adjusted for inflation, real spending would have to drop.

 

However the big wild card here is that many dollars are created outside of the US, due to the actions of foreign central banks interviening in support of the dollar.  With all those dollars and other fiat money being created, the world money supply outside of the US is expanding.  Whether it goes to stocks, bonds, oil, gold, or something else it will go somewhere.

 

So I'm saying it's easily possible to have worldwide inflation, and higher prices for raw materials, at the same time we enter a recession in the US.

Higher prices for raw materials would mean depression, in an already weak system.

 

Depression in the US would mean the collapse of the bubble economies of Asia and the long overdue depression in Japan.

 

Remember, China is nothing but a big Argentina without the natural resources.

 

As soon as Asia gets a whiff of recession in US, they lose their incentive to hold dollar assets.

 

Panic out of dollar assets into commodities and PMs.

 

Bond collapse.

 

US Government insolvency.

 

End game.

 

******

 

Except,

 

IMO, the Fed (Big Banks) see this coming and are preparing for it now.

 

Crash it, then save it with a cashless system.

 

 

 

Dreamers.

 

Let's not lump all of Asia together. China has incentive to hold US dollar assets in order to maintain political leverage over the US. They can threaten to dump Treasuries and USD if threatened by the US. The Bank of China is not a hedge fund. It is a politically controlled institution - essentially the government's financial arm. Losses due to forex issues are not their highest concern.

 

Japan may lose incentive to hold dollars if the US consumer fails. If sales of Japanese products drop to virtually zero due to recession/depression in the US, what's the point in subsidizing the US consumer further?

 

As for incipient deflation, I suspect we will see price declines in many markets in 2005...but I do not expect monetary deflation. Japanese money supply has steadily increased since 1990. Debtors benefit from hyperinflation, and the largest debtor is the US government. If the government forces the banking cartel to choose between outright default (leading to banking failures) vs. hyperinflation, my bet is on "extraordinary measures", Bernanke's printing press, and a whole lot of dollar devaluation.