"Buy and Hold" HedgeFunds Coming

[Guest]

dozer...here ya go. Alternative Energy picks/discussion

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=6449

[dozer]

another well timed IPO - LCD maker LPL comes to market just as LCD prices are cratering - now below first day price:

ouch! that's gotta hurt...

 

BM and Hadjin, tanks for the link to that alt-en thread.

 

wndy, tanks for the AE picks, and the suggestion towards the oil-shares themselves...appreciated.

 

Panda, the one thing that all those scenarios have in common is their unstated assumption of -today's- environment continuing long enough to enable "china as the new world power" to come to pass.

 

It was only recently that I myself got shocked out of that view; when I read that they were requiring 650 MILLION cars....and it hit me that China is making a horrible mistake of gigantic proportions.

 

They are putting enormous energy into -replicating- the entire western 'structure', but that structure is a dying horse. It's entirely based on petroleum energy....-cheap- petro energy.

 

I don't think China will ever complete this reach for "western consumerism" industrial society.

 

And as food productivity continues to decay elsewhere, they are going to be in serious serious trouble. Famine is not too strong a prediction, I don't think.

[PandaBear]

Panda, the one thing that all those scenarios have in common is their unstated assumption of -today's- environment continuing long enough to enable "china as the new world power" to come to pass.

 

It was only recently that I myself got shocked out of that view; when I read that they were requiring 650 MILLION cars....and it hit me that China is making a horrible mistake of gigantic proportions.

 

They are putting enormous energy into -replicating- the entire western 'structure', but that structure is a dying horse.  It's entirely based on petroleum energy....-cheap- petro energy.

 

I don't think China will ever complete this reach for "western consumerism" industrial society.

 

And as food productivity continues to decay elsewhere, they are going to be in serious serious trouble.  Famine is not too strong a prediction, I don't think.

 

I don't deny that. There will be a huge economic shock when peak oil is recognized. We won't know until a year or two after the fact.

 

The introduction of new energy sources will the the key to the mid 21st century. If humanity can do this, the future is bright. If not, then we are doomed to resource wars, population decline and general misery.

 

I am of the opinion that only solar power satellites will be practical to sustain a growing global economy beyond 2050. This will require global cooperation and some technological advances, although all of the technology is currently feasible. Every solar power satellite is a potential weapon, so there will have to be some global political understanding, at least among the powers who control the satellites.

 

Fusion is always years away, and I don't think we'll find a good containment method for quite some time (i.e. decades). Plus, who would want to live next to a potential holocaust? Renewables (wind, biodiesel, hydro, earth-based solar) can't supply the aggregate need without excess consumption of land. Fission is limited by the supply of fissionables - a limited resource, like oil.

 

Placing high efficiency photovoltaic collectors in orbit and on the Moon will allow collection of massive amounts of solar energy without weather effects or nighttime interruption. The energy can be beamed to earth via microwave laser and collected at receiver stations, then switched into the electrical grid. There isn't much limit to how large you can build a solar array in space, only the materials, labor and time. The raw materials can be mined from the Moon and near-earth asteroids. We need a robust space program. Currently the launch costs limit the economic feasibility of these things, but that could change. I would envision building a mining and factory complex on the Moon, followed by a mass driver. Build collectors on the moon and cover as much moonscape as you need to power the factory and mass driver. Then you can shoot the products into Earth orbit for assembly.

 

Do a Google search on "solar power satellites" and you'll get a lot of hits.

 

http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/te...s_011017-1.html

 

http://spacesolarpower.nasa.gov/

 

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/214/1

 

http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumerinfo/factsheets/l123.html

[PandaBear]

Money is created when the Fed lends new money to the Treasury, not when the Treasury lends to the banks. How does lending back tax receipts which the Treasury just took in, affect the system? These are direct loans collateralized against tax receipts. No new securities are created. No new money is created. They are not repos issued by the Fed which create new money temporarily. When banks lend to each other, or the Treasury lends to the banks, NO MONEY IS CREATED. IT IS A WASH. It has no effect on the system.

 

Think about it. Since this money is money which already existed, how can it affect the system? It represents only a temporary transfer within the system, to any participating bank, not a net add to the system, such as when the Fed buys notes and bills, or does a temporary repurchase agreement directly with the Gang of 23, who immediately purchase securities.

Doc,

 

No doubt that the Treasury repos don't create "new money" via the "Mandrake mechanism" as Griffin calls it in CFJI. However, it is interesting that the government is essentially shifting money from tax receipts into banks just before the election. While the effect may not be as pronounced as the Fed injecting new money into the system, it is essentially a shift from pumping the money out into the real economy (via government expenditures and entitlement programs) and into the financial system. What is the motive for this action at this time?

 

You say that this reduces the need for the Fed to pump. It is not unreasonable to assume that the support by the Treasury reduces the need for banks to hold money in reserve, so that more of that money can be lent out or placed into securities? And let's not forget the multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking.

 

It's too simplistic to say that this has no effect on the stock markets. It certainly doesn't hurt the bulls to have billions more dollars available in the banking system right before the election.

[dozer]

Panda, you're a bear after me own heart

 

I agree 100%. I was an L5 member for a while...

 

I especially agree with:

 

"The introduction of new energy sources will the the key to the mid 21st century. If humanity can do this, the future is bright. If not, then we are doomed to resource wars, population decline and general misery."

 

That sums the entire human future into a single accurate nutshell.

 

From childhood, I have constantly dreamed of and planned on going to space, but a firecracker thrown by a neighbor brat, exploding in front of my eyes, put an end to the path through the Air Force that I'd expected to travel.

 

If this world does get it together to put us out there, I will be (happily) amazed. Maybe after the dieback, a small group will coalesce and get it done. Or by some miracle, Rutan's group will manage to stay together and working through the next decade of turmoil; and be the germ of a real, significant, -industrial- space effort. I pray that is so.

 

In the meantime, I'm thinking I should cut some more firewood tomorrow...

[Guest]

The next leg down in the bear market starts this week.

 

So far this year every breakdown has been sticksaved.

 

This one won't be.

 

If Kerry wins, those who have been sticksaving will let it collapse.

 

If Bush wins, they no longer need to sticksave.

 

So either way, down we go.

 

Oh, I forgot, there is no manipulation.

 

No housing bubble.

 

No inflation.

 

Right.

 

 

Oh, and if it's a "tie", i.e., the loser challenges the winner via lawsuits that drag out for weeks, the uncertainty will force longs into cash, so again, DOWN.

[Guest]

T/A aside, here is the current state of the stock market:

 

Longs are complacent and are sure of a post-election rally.

 

Shorts are scared shitless and many have already covered.

 

Lots of stocks have already suffered deathblows and the only question is the rate of their impending descent, even if they have bounced in the latest market sticksave.

 

Many stocks still going up are way overvalued and yes it does matter.

 

The overall market has been goosed via the index futures, temporarily propping up individual stocks that will find few buyers on the way down because they are so far above any real value, their major value was as greater fool chips on the way up, like houses.

 

Inflation and interest rates are rising, the dollar is on the verge of a collapse, gold on the verge of a breakout, and the wars certain to intensify this week.