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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell Tuezelday October 19

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Seems like the tide could be turning for a flexible exchange rate in China? Oh dollar how I loved thee.... :o

 

SHANGHAI (AFX) - China could move towards a more flexible exchange rate system while maintaining a stable currency, the Beijing Morning Post reported, citing Yu Yongding, a member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank

 

"If the yuan exchange rate appreciates by one, two or even three percent, or depreciates at the same pace, does that mean an unstable exchange rate? The answer is obviously no," Yu was quoted as saying in a magazine published by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)

 

"To keep the exchange rate stable does not mean the system could not be changed," said Yu, also the director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), a government think-tank

 

Earlier this month, SAFE reiterated its stance that no timetable exists to allow the currency to float freely and that a "one-off" revaluation of the currency is both "impossible" and "unwise"

 

The PBoC followed that with a statement on its website reiterating its policy of maintaining the yuan's "stability"

 

However, earlier state media reports quoted He Fan, another senior researcher with CASS, as saying he expects to see a 10 pct appreciation in the yuan

 

Last week, Guo Shuqing, SAFE's director, said there will not be much impact on exports and employment if the yuan exchange rate is allowed to float in a controllable range

 

China's currency has been pegged at about 8.3 yuan to the dollar for the past 10 years. Its major trading partners, particularly the US and EU, have been lobbying the central government to revalue the currency, claiming it is undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage over rivals

 

(1 usd = 8.3 yuan)

While so much attention is given to the China/US exchange rate, by fixing to the US$ they also have been devaluing their currency against other major currencies.

I think there is much pressure from around the world for China to do something.

What the first step is to go to a 'basket' valuation, so if the US$ falls the Chinese reminbi won't fall nearly as much.

 

In any case, holding US$s has become more and more of a 'hot potato' issue for the Chinese. If they have to dump their dollars in to commodities, then they will do that.

 

Again the production of dollars is what lead to inflation as much as demand from China.

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RE: Deflation vs Inflation

 

Take a look at the 2 charts below..pay attention to configuration of OEX in March 2003 after an almost 3 year decline...note dollar position today..

 

Be very careful shorting the dollar here..I don't want see you permainflationists carried out on a stretcher, like so many permabears who doubted the '03 stock bottom..

 

My guess is that Deflation is about to take the world full force fur a while..all of the cacamodities except for Metals and Energy have already crashed..Real Estate is clearly runnin' on fumes...Crude is in the process of making a huge top right here..jury is still out on the Metals, but I suspect they will tank if Uncle Buck completes the 4 year cycle low here..the amount of dollars about to be destroyed by viscious debt deflation is truly mind boggling..

 

I may be proven wrong......or not..

 

Watch the Canadian Dollar... it led the turn at the low in Feb, and it appears to be trying to turn while dollar index slides to what could be it's final low for many months to come..huge pivot area here..shouldn't take too much longer to resolve..

 

 

1065505302546?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=$oex.x&Interval=M:255&Permission=1000&Ht=300&Wd=500&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10.gif

 

1065505302546?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=dx00y&Interval=M:255&Permission=1000&Ht=300&Wd=500&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10.gif

Why should the DXYO chart recapitulate the S&P 100 chart?

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Wonmug- this is in la Belle Provance they will settle it over Tortierre and Poutine- Fokker will mediate! :lol:  :lol:

Oh, Poutine, I remember this - french fries with gravy, right?

 

Edit: I need to find someplace for breakfast with sausage gravy and biscuits!

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The 9/11 Secret in the CIA's Back Pocket

The agency is withholding a damning report that points at senior officials.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/102004V.shtml

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-...l=la-util-op-ed

 

It is shocking: The Bush administration is suppressing a CIA report on 9/11 until after the election, and this one names names. Although the report by the inspector general's office of the CIA was completed in June, it has not been made available to the congressional intelligence committees that mandated the study almost two years ago.

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Well, we shall see if China has the wear with all to orchestrate such a move once it de-couples. Should be interesting.... Thanks for the analysis Hiding Bear...there is so much behind all your comments....

 

Best wishes....

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Why should the DXYO chart recapitulate the S&P 100 chart?

Monthly MACD crosses after significant lengthy declines are a major warning sign that the decline has run out of gas..at least on most of the charts I have looked at spanning the last hundred years or so anyway..it doesn't mean that price can't work it's way lower yet..it is just a BIG warning flag..one that was ignored by many stock bears to their extreme detriment in Mar 03..

 

If the monthly MACD can get turned down again, the dollar would most likely have another leg down, as the British Pound did in the early '90s..

 

We are at a pivotal area, with signs of a deflationary wave starting to crop up..a good time to exercise caution if you're short, that's all...

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Wonmug- this is in la Belle Provance they will settle it over Tortierre and Poutine- Fokker will mediate! :lol: :lol:

Poutine? Poutine? isn't that kind of an expensive solution? Oh wait, my French spelling slipped a couple vowels... What's it like up there in Jonquiere -sounds like the kind of boonies I've hung out in years past- bitchin' cold I bet...

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Guest Icky Twerp

there was something in my Guinness tonite. . .

 

 

How does the widget work?

The widget is a plastic molded device that sits on the top of the contents of each can of GUINNESS? Draught. When the can is opened, a small amount of beer and nitrogen, trapped in the widget, is forced out through the beer, which creates the famous creamy head that you find on a pint of GUINNESS? Draught served in a pub. The widget gives GUINNESS? Draught in cans the taste and texture of a pub poured pint at home.

Guinness & the Widget

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Guest Icky Twerp

Like a short birdy putt --

if you miss it you feel worse than missing a long par putt.

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