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B4 The Bell Tuezelday October 19


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Read something in WSJ in 1974 that stuck in my memory.

 

It was around the time of Oil Shock I.

 

The editorialist was recalling the whale oil crisis that set in around the time of the Civil War.

 

The editorial said that some people were agitating for government price controls on and rationing of whale oil.

 

Around the same time, some fellow in Pennsylvania started taking oil out of the ground and, all of a sudden, whale oil ceased to seem like a life-or-death proposition.

 

The point, of course, was that we needed (1) the government to get out of the way of the energy industry and (2) to make the next technology breakthrough required to eliminate dependence on oil.

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Mark Olson, Federal Reserve Governor.

Tuesday, October 19, 2004 08:18 GMT

Reuters - "Currently the economy is not as strong as we would have thought it would be six or eight months ago, but it is still improving. All the recent information suggests the economy is still strong. In terms of immediate impact, the economy certainly has been slower in 2004 than in 2003. Essentially the question is, is the economy continuing to improve to the point that we can continue to remove the accommodation and that's the question that we will be addressing."

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WWII: German military couldn't get oil, or, at least, couldn't get enough of it.

 

They used something called the Lurgi coal gasification process to make avgas out of coal.

 

With all the time that's passed since I wonder if this process has been improved.

 

I recall reading that Imperial Japan, facing the same problem, was making aviation gasoline out of stuff like pine tree roots.

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No-Hydrogen is a fantasy-the prior poster was quite right, to make hydrogen you have to use fossil fuels and lots of them. Vancouver is the home of Ballard Power the leader in the field virtually every Auto Company has invested tens of millions over the years with Ballard and basically got squat in return. Hybrids will be the next thing because they cut gas consumption and don't increase manufacturing costs very much. Today was the Anniversary of Black Monday Oct.19/1987 you take the 10th month and add the numbers and you get 45=4 plus 5 =9. Tomorrow is Oct.20/2004 do the same and you get nine-some postulate the Gann square of 9-we will know soon enough Japan is going over the cliff as we speak! ;)

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No-Hydrogen is a fantasy-the prior poster was quite right, to make hydrogen you have to use fossil fuels and lots of them.? Vancouver is the home of Ballard Power the leader in the field virtually every Auto Company has invested tens of millions over the years with Ballard and basically got squat in return.? Hybrids will be the next thing because they cut gas consumption and don't increase manufacturing costs very much.? Today was the Anniversary of Black Monday Oct.19/1987 you take the 10th month and add the numbers and you get 45=4 plus 5 =9.? Tomorrow is Oct.20/2004 do the same and you get nine-some postulate the Gann square of 9-we will know soon enough Japan is going over the cliff as we speak!?? ;)

I agree that hybrids are the next thing but that is a stop gap measure in an ever increasing problem. Something will replace oil. He thinks it may be hyrdogen fuel cells. Hey NASA uses em.Right?

 

We replaced trees with coal long before we ran out of trees. Same thing with Oil Vrs coal.

 

There must be a huge amount of energy in water.No? (Hydrogen). I agree that is unstable, Now. Five or ten years from now, who knows.

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Depends, the news in the market could not have been worse. No tech surge toward the end of year as expected. Fannie, GM, Ford, Delphi being investigaged. The dollar falling below 87 and expected and planned to go down further.

 

We are in the time period where everything bad will stick and good stuff will have limited impact...imho. We are getting close enough to the end of the year where the big money managers and investors slowly withdraw some of the chips from the market....ala downward stock market bias....imho....

 

The trend will feed upon itself until we have some sort of sell-off. Then there may be some sort of bottom or spike back up, but not for long because we are in a downward trend.....perhaps spiral if the dollar really gets going or there is some sort of exogeneous event....

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Japanese shipbuilders received orders for vessels totaling 1.81 mln gross tons in September, down 9.4 pct from a year earlier, the fifth straight month of year-on-year declines, the Japan Ship Exporters Association said

 

In September, there were orders for 19 bulk cargo ships totaling 962,250 tons and 10 oil tankers totaling 312,900 tons

 

Until Jan 2004, combined orders received by Japanese shipbuilders saw five consecutive months of rises

 

Cumulative orders received between January and September totaled 11.91 mln tons, down 39.5 pct from the same period last year

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Ags Nightmare has a funny post on Mark 2 Market.

 

It seems that Tsy Sec'y Snow has figured out why the economy is languishing:

 

Booze and tobacco.

 

People are drinking too much alcohol, smoking too many butts, developing the illnesses that accompany such self-indulgences, raising health care costs, etc., etc.

 

I won't deny there's a lot of alcohol and tobacco-related morbidity and mortality and that it costs a lot of money. However, these vices, and their associated costs, have always been around; they aren't recent developments.

 

Sec'y Snow (whom I recently saw on Squawkbox proclaiming that everything is just peachy) passed over in silence the possibility that anything his colleagues in Moscow-on-the-Potomac have been up to might have something to do with current economic conditions.

 

Such as, for instance, the federal fiscal deficit and the Federal Reserve funny money machine.

 

So put out that smoke and put away the bottle. Sec'y Snow expects every man (ladies, too) to do his duty.

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