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DrStool

B4 The Bell Fryday 10/15/04

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im telling you its like mexico, where people would use pesos to buy brick becuase over time the price of the bricks would outpace the purchasing power of the currency... much bigger bricks in china of course, but same/similar principal.

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Guest yobob1

The problem with Bill Gross's argument is that he has his hedonics facts completely back-asswards. Hedonics overstates the value of an item. A grossly simplified example: a 1 ghz computer sells for $1,000. A 2 ghz model is introduced and also sells for $1,000 but the govt claims it as $2,000 because it is twice as powerful.

 

Secondly in his latest missive he really blurs the lines:

 

I would take that assertion one step further by using the following example that strikes to the heart of the hedonic debate. Say the only product that Americans purchase and consume are bags of gumdrops ? 100 to a bag that cost $1.00 per bag, with each citizen limited to 1 bag. Through the miracle of productivity, a way is found to fill each bag with 110 gumdrops that is now priced at $1.10. The government?s hedonic adjustments would now calculate that the bag really only costs $1.00 and that the CPI has not gone up. After all, each gumdrop in the bag still only costs a penny does it not? It does. But here?s the catch and the con. The price of a gumdrop hasn?t gone up, but the cost of a bag of gumdrops has. Because Americans must buy 1 bag as opposed to individual candies, their cost of living has increased by 10%.

 

Uh excuse Me Mr. Bill, but the way I see it is that they simply buy fewer bags over a given period. Pretty lame there oh bond guru.

 

Con Job Redux

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Guest yobob1

Brain, those 2003 China stats have been wildly reversed in many cases. Example China is now importing 67% less finished steel. Check with rog for other highlights. China is aiming for a soft landing but annoyingly the gear down alarm is sounding loudly.

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U of M Consumer Sentiment Index WAY DOWN!!!

 

at 87.5 down from 94.2

But they are still buying coffee at Starbucks

just shorted it

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Let's see...

 

The retail sales numbers were up on surprisingly good auto sales (apparently GM didn't get the memo) and this happens to coincide with the biggest one month decline in the U of M numbers that I can recall.

 

Sure!

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The US dollah index is at or near its June lows around 87 ... next is the early 2004 low around 85 ... next support after that is ZERO. :lol:

It should have good support there MH! :D

 

Hard to believe China is finding it wise to trade their green confetti in for commodities, eh?

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