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Hiding Bear

B4 The Bell Thursday October 14

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Anybody know how to get NYMEX crude price on Ameritrade? A co-worker has Ameritrade but we can't figure out how to get realtime crude price. I found a free source on the Web but it has a 30-minute delay.

 

TIA

Free streaming quotes for currencies, metals, oil:

 

http://forex-markets.com/javacharts.htm

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Dow gettin' torched..just need NAZ and SP to break loose now..

It's all about oil here. If they can cap the damage here, they will hold the 1110 line in the sand.

 

If oil suddenly goes up more than a buck...

 

GAMEOVERVILLE

 

It looks like oil at $54.75 would do the trick

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If you look at the Spoo option chain for November you can't help but notice that the 2 put strikes with the most outstanding interest are nosebleed out of the money-Nov. 995-outstanding 50,100 and Nov.1005- outstanding 63,425. Those were bought for peanuts and would be worth a kings ransom if they got in the money-Da Boyz, Da Boyz!

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If you want a good book on Chaos and the markets, one that is a tad beyond the trivial but if you take the time with it can bring rewards it is CHAOS and ORDER in the Capital Markets by Edgar E. Peters. $65.00 also published by Wiley

 

I have the second edition 1996 - don't know if it has been updated.

 

Good news =it's in Doc's Bookstore for 37.50. Do a search on "Chaos and Order"

 

http://www.invest-store.com/cgi-bin/capita...o.cgi?item=3295

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If you want a good book on Chaos and the markets, one that is a tad beyond the trivial but if you take the time with it can bring rewards it is CHAOS and ORDER in the Capital Markets by Edgar E. Peters. $65.00 also published by Wiley

 

I have the second edition 1996 - don't know if it has been updated.

 

Good news =it's in Doc's Bookstore for 37.50. Do a search on "Chaos and Order"

Thanks Mars - I will check it out.

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DJ Tsy: To Tap Govt Pension Fund Thurs To Avert Debt Limit

  By Deborah Lagomarsino

  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

  WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department will start taking emergency maneuvers Thursday to keep financing government operations as the U.S. is set to collide with its $7.384 trillion debt limit.

 

  Treasury said starting Thursday it plans to tap into a government retirement fund for stopgap cash, an extraordinary step taken in previous debt-limit crises.

 

  "By reason of the public debt limit, I will be unable to fully invest the Government Securities Investment Fund ("G-Fund") of the Federal Employees Retirement System in special interest-bearing Treasury securities, beginning on Oct. 14, 2004," Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday in a letter to top lawmakers in Congress.

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this represents the second day in a row where the price of oil rocketed upward in .10 increments over a very short time frame, only to be STOPPED and slowly walked back down.

 

Which direction do you think represents the natural order of things and which do you think represents "management?"

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If oil suddenly goes up more than a buck...

 

GAMEOVERVILLE

 

It looks like oil at $54.75 would do the trick

It may sound too simplistic, but I'm serious --

 

The best rough guide to when crude oil has topped out will be when one of the major newspapers (NYT, WSJ, W. Post, L.A. Times) publishes a front-page, right-column story with a headline such as:

 

OIL CRISIS THREATENS GLOBAL RECESSION

 

When the "point of recognition" has been passed, and concern has reached a fever pitch, then the price of oil will be near its top (for now).

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Twig- Williams book on Chaos Theory is superb and I highly recommend it to all!

http://www.invest-store.com/cgi-bin/capita...o.cgi?item=3554

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Brian, I'm reading Bill Williams' book Trading Chaos about chaos theory and the markets. Verrry interesting. Definitely a new paradigm for thinking about the markets. I'm looking for a way to apply the techniques to a mechanical trading system. I have also ordered The Misbehavior of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson.

http://www.invest-store.com/cgi-bin/capita...gi?item=2201163

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If oil suddenly goes up more than a buck...

 

GAMEOVERVILLE

 

It looks like oil at $54.75 would do the trick

It may sound too simplistic, but I'm serious --

 

The best rough guide to when crude oil has topped out will be when one of the major newspapers (NYT, WSJ, W. Post, L.A. Times) publishes a front-page, right-column story with a headline such as:

 

OIL CRISIS THREATENS GLOBAL RECESSION

 

When the "point of recognition" has been passed, and concern has reached a fever pitch, then the price of oil will be near its top (for now).

1 to 2 more weeks max is my guess at point..for a final thrust peak for this move..prolly gonna ride the Nov contract shorts out on a rail next week..then drop after that..

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Based on all my discussions with brokers, investors, friends and family, the last thing they attribute the rise in crude to is the drop in the dollar.

 

Here is a piece back from 1978 I ran across that might help explain to those who discount or disbelieve the dollar's influence on crude.

 

OPEC and the Dollar Dilemma

 

Summary: The sustained and alarming depreciation of the U.S. dollar against some major European currencies and the Japanese yen during 1977 and the early part of 1978 has ushered in a new element of instability in the shaky international monetary system. One of the most critical effects of the dollar devaluation has been a new and unwelcome pressure on the real price of crude oil, which has been steadily shrinking since 1973 (despite the two 10-percent-upward adjustments in October 1975 and December 1976).

 

Jahangir Amuzegar is Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund and Iran's Ambassador-at-Large and Principal Resident Representative to the IMF and World Bank. He is the author of Iran: An Economic Profile, published by the Middle East Institute, and other works. The views expressed are those of the author personally.

 

 

The sustained and alarming depreciation of the U.S. dollar against some major European currencies and the Japanese yen during 1977 and the early part of 1978 has ushered in a new element of instability in the shaky international monetary system. One of the most critical effects of the dollar devaluation has been a new and unwelcome pressure on the real price of crude oil, which has been steadily shrinking since 1973 (despite the two 10-percent-upward adjustments in October 1975 and December 1976).

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