Hiding Bear Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! The quarter ends tommorow, but the market thought that it ended yesterday. Accumulation of new MF favorites continued, yesterday's old love stories were dumped. My non-technical feeling about this is we won't see another quarter ending rally. The micro-refinancing boom continues: U.S. mortgage applications rise last week - MBAWed Sep 29, 2004 07:00 AM ET NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. home loans rose last week along with mortgage refinancings as 30-year mortgage rates eased to their lowest levels in six months, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of mortgage activity, rose by 4.9 percent to 724.7 for the week ended on Sept 24 from the previous week's 690.7. Thirty-year mortgage rates, excluding fees, averaged 5.64 percent, down 0.02 percentage point from the previous week and down 0.03 percentage point from a year ago, the Washington trade group said. The association's purchase index, a gauge of new loan requests for home purchases, rose last week by 2.7 percent to 469.1 from 456.6 in the prior week. The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index on new refinancing applications rose by 7.7 percent to 2,211.1 for last week from the previous week's 2,052.5. http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle....storyID=6363710 Good trading! Natural Gas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell believes that the situation in Iraq is "getting worse" and the senior U.S. military commander for Iraq says that he expects more violence ahead of the Iraqi elections. Their remarks followed last week?s optimistic statements by the U.S. President George Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, despite the ongoing violence in the country. Powell acknowledged that the violence is continuing as planned Iraqi elections approach, saying that; "It's getting worse," Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told Congress on Friday that Iraq?s elections must be ?open to all citizens? if it is to be credible. Armitage?s remarks contradicted with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld who said that if violence prevents Iraqis from voting in some areas, partial elections would be better than none at all. ?So you have an election that's not quite perfect." He said. When asked about Rumsfeld's remarks, Powell said; "you know, there will be polling stations that are shot at," http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/news_serv...service_ID=4947 Growing Pessimism on Iraq Doubts Increase Within U.S. Security Agencies By Dana Priest and Thomas E. Ricks Washington Post Staff Writers Wednesday, September 29, 2004; Page A01 A growing number of career professionals within national security agencies believe that the situation in Iraq is much worse, and the path to success much more tenuous, than is being expressed in public by top Bush administration officials, according to former and current government officials and assessments over the past year by intelligence officials at the CIA and the departments of State and defense. While President Bush, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and others have delivered optimistic public appraisals, officials who fight the Iraqi insurgency and study it at the CIA and the State Department and within the Army officer corps believe the rebellion is deeper and more widespread than is being publicly acknowledged, officials say. People at the CIA "are mad at the policy in Iraq because it's a disaster, and they're digging the hole deeper and deeper and deeper," said one former intelligence officer who maintains contact with CIA officials. "There's no obvious way to fix it. The best we can hope for is a semi-failed state hobbling along with terrorists and a succession of weak governments." One official involved in evaluating the July document said the NIC, which advises the director of central intelligence, decided not to include a more rosy scenario "because it looked so unrealistic" White House spokesman Scott McClellan, and other White House spokesmen, called the intelligence assessment the work of "pessimists and naysayers" after its outlines were disclosed by the New York Times. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...-2004Sep28.html The wistful side of Colin Powell 09/28/2004 ? Colin Powell seems unlikely to garner a return invitation should the Bush administration enjoy a second term, nor is it clear that he has any reason to want one. It may be, then, that his most recent organizational innovation, the Office of Reconstruction and Stabilization, is the product of a regretful backward glance. In the months before the invasion of Iraq, Powell's state department put together a massive project to advise the Pentagon and the U.S. occupying administration on how to put Iraq back together after the shooting. The New York Times got a look at the project's findings as it was being presented to Congress in October of 2003, and noted that the "Future of Iraq Project" report anticipated a great many of the problems encountered by the U.S. since the invasion, and made specific recommendations to address them. Although the Pentagon claimed to have incorporated the project's recommendations into its planning, a number of the most important ones were ignored. The project recommended against disbanding the army, which was one of the early major decisions by viceroy Paul Bremer, because it would throw several hundred thousand heavily armed men out of work. It anticipated the looting in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Iraq's government, and suggested ways to guard against it. And it warned that the Pentagon's estimates of reconstruction costs, and the amount of oil revenue Iraq could generate to cover those costs, were way too optimistic. http://www.btcnews.com/btcnews/archives/00000720.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 I smell a set-up! This morning, US oil/gasoline inventory numbers will be released. If the Government surprisingly "finds" a lot more oil on hand than it previously claimed, one might assume that the goal was to run the price through $50 to load the boat on the long side for oil and gold speculators, then drop the bomb of "greater than expected" inventory numbers to send the price of both plummeting just in time for the elections. Would they do that? Would they just lie? Naaah. Would they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 "Mortgage rates hit a six month low last week. Mortgage rates have actually been going down at the same time the Fed has been raising interest rates, which has never happened before in history, by the way." Mark Haines - CNBS Of course there is no desire to get to the bottom of this historic phenomenon to understand how this could possibly be happening in a free market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 MoGauge Rises Looks Can Be Deceiving Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important MoGauge , straight from the MoGauge Bankers Ass. The MoGauge reflects a major source of liquidity in the financial bubble world and is an important indicator of future market behavior, often forecasting broad market movements months in advance. Take a subscribatory and download your MoGauge RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 There has never been a time when short rates rose and long rates declined? I sincerely doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 Making Hay While The Sun Shines Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 There has never been a time when short rates rose and long rates declined? I sincerely doubt that. We Report - You Interpret! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 Let's put the statement in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 There has never been a time when short rates rose and long rates declined? I sincerely doubt that. We Report - You Interpret! Doc's got a point.............. Consider September, 2000 for example........... Dynamic Yield Curve-From Stockcharts.com Use the "animate" radio button or the red line on the spx chart to move the curve around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 There has never been a time when short rates rose and long rates declined? I sincerely doubt that. It's happened numerous times, usually before a recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Second-quarter U.S. growth was revised higher to a 3.3 percent annual rate from the 2.8 percent previously reported, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 29, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 Earth will get a close shave today from an asteroid, hey Aussies take a look: A big asteroid named 4179 Toutatis is flying past Earth today. This space rock is shaped like a peanut about 3 miles long and it tumbles like a badly thrown football. Astronomers say there's no danger of a collision, but they'll be monitoring it closely anyway. All asteroids glow by means of reflected sunlight. Toutatis is about as bright as a 9th magnitude star. It's an easy target for backyard telescopes--but only in the southern hemisphere. Observers in Australia and New Zealand will have a good view of Toutatis gliding 1o from the bright star Alpha Centauri. http://www.spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 "pessimists and naysayers" closet stoolies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted September 29, 2004 Report Share Posted September 29, 2004 Go to CNN and watch a very important and exciting chapter in history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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