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Daily Digger - Moonday Sept SEX, '04

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Well since there was nothing good on television, I don't have a real job, (except for sharpening lightning bolts), I didn't have anything better to do, and I don't have a real life, I thought I'd opened today's thread.

When I don't have anything better to do on a long weekend, which is always, I try to take the time to sharpen up my models. The performance has been suffering along with the summer doldrums and skittish manic range trading of late. Since I don't want to adjust my models in ant way that might allow for this, I had to find some other approach.

My first model was a PRICE-BASED MODEL, in that trades were triggered at a certain PRICE based on price and time leading up to it. However, my new model is TIME-BASED, in that trades are triggered at a certain TIME based on price and time leading up to it. I found this interesting so I decided to see what would be the effect of combining the 2 models. I did this by forcing one model to close trades if the other model decried a reversal. This has led to improved results of the combined model over trading the models separately.


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I once again confirm that no power on earth or the universe can bring down gold prices below $400. On Friday, it just so happened that an external power played a negative role for metals. As I have stated many times previously, the impact of external powers and influences is usually short-lived.




401.5 down to 398.5



So this week 400 is the line between NN and the stars

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Commercials are bullish which unfortunately doesn't mean much...


SHANGHAI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , the world's third-largest bullion producer, expects gold prices to touch their highest levels since 1988 in coming months due to declining supply and a poor outlook for the U.S. economy, the chief financial officer said on Monday.


The gold price (XAU=: Quote, Profile, Research) would move into the "mid-$400s to high-$400s" an ounce range by the end of this year and hold there next year, Jamie Sokalsky told Reuters on the sidelines of an international gold conference.


"We are very bullish on the gold price," he said. "I am very optimistic that the price could rise to that level."


Gold rose as high as $424.60 an ounce this year but has not traded above $450 since 1988. It was trading around $401.25 an ounce on Monday.


Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the world's largest gold miner, expects gold to trade between $380 and $450 or higher for the next 12 months, its president, Pierre Lassonde, told Reuters on Sunday.


Toronto-based Barrick plans to reduce further its hedge book, a series of forward contracts entered into to guarantee a minimum price for gold.


Many miners have scrapped or reduced their hedges because they also put a lid on the maximum price, preferring to take their chances on global bullion prices that have risen around 40 percent since 2002.


"We are going to use the volatility of the gold market to continue to reduce our hedge position. I think there's still a lot of dehedging to be done in the industry," Sokalsky said.



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After the bearish Doji in Silver two Fridays ago I think it was encouraging it took two weeks to break down. The 50% retrace of the range in the HUI is 210ish so a move away from that area was to be expected. I would expect any downside from here to be held by the 195 area. I think this week is the key week coming up for the metals. I would be an aggressive buyer on breaks into support. My favorite silver is SSRI and I would buy any weakness into the 12.90-13.00 area. GSS I would buy 4.15-4.25. The bullish engulfing candle in the USD didn't buy much of a pop. Very weak long term. The buck is toast. The upside is limited.Hope all enjoy what's left of the Holiday.

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Push Comes To Shove


Golds Enter Must Hold Zone


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